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Oops, El Nino is back

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  • #16
    Re: Oops, El Nino is back

    Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
    Wonder what Richard Feynman would say ... a man who would acknowledge that he could be wrong - ah, the humility is so refreshing as it is rare today
    I knew Dr. Feynman and worked for him on several occasions in the last few years of his life. He was a very funny and likeable guy but humility would be one of the last words I would use to describe him. He was always the smartest guy in the room and he knew it. He was too smart to say social scientists are idiots with egos but if you listen closely, he does say they're just pretending to be scientists.

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    • #17
      Re: Oops, El Nino is back

      vt, it's important that we not take a single data point and extrapolate from it an incorrect conclusion. The writer does this with his headline when he explains that the US is "having it's coolest year on record". While 2014 in the US is not a particularly warm or cold year it is far from being the coldest, or as the writer cleverly states, the "coolest". In fact, it's about at the mid point in average temperature. Unfortunately, this will likely turn out to be the hottest year on record for the other 98% of the globe.

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      • #18
        Re: Oops, El Nino is back

        Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
        vt, it's important that we not take a single data point and extrapolate from it an incorrect conclusion. The writer does this with his headline when he explains that the US is "having it's coolest year on record". While 2014 in the US is not a particularly warm or cold year it is far from being the coldest, or as the writer cleverly states, the "coolest". In fact, it's about at the mid point in average temperature. Unfortunately, this will likely turn out to be the hottest year on record for the other 98% of the globe.
        i would add that the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

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        • #19
          Re: Oops, El Nino is back

          Originally posted by jk View Post
          i would add that the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
          Understanding the world through story telling and one's direct experience has worked well for humanity but the use of anecdote and simple heuristics in the face of this issue has little chance for success.

          Although I'm not a big fan of analogies, I've been using one from your field lately to help people begin to frame their own position on global warming in a non political context.

          I ask people to think about whether they consider global warming to be more like a common cold or more like a cancer. Everyone understands the available modalities for fighting the common cold and even homeopathic therapies, while ineffective, are not harmful. These same people who would use a therapy recommended by their neighbor to treat a cold balk at the idea that their neighbor or friend could suggest an effective treatment for cancer.

          It seems to give us a starting point for a conversation and helps remove some of the bristly political angles. From these conversations I've begun to understand how difficult an up hill battle it will be for any of us who think this more like a cancer. We can't expect anyone who thinks they can just cruise down to the metaphorical drug store for a Neti Pot to seek out expensive and invasive treatments. It is up to us to explain the symptoms and the possible outcomes in an a political and calm manner and let people come to their own conclusions.

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          • #20
            Re: Oops, El Nino is back

            ​meanwhile, Fukushima moves on . . . .

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            • #21
              Re: Oops, El Nino is back

              Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
              Understanding the world through story telling and one's direct experience has worked well for humanity but the use of anecdote and simple heuristics in the face of this issue has little chance for success.

              Although I'm not a big fan of analogies, I've been using one from your field lately to help people begin to frame their own position on global warming in a non political context.

              I ask people to think about whether they consider global warming to be more like a common cold or more like a cancer. Everyone understands the available modalities for fighting the common cold and even homeopathic therapies, while ineffective, are not harmful. These same people who would use a therapy recommended by their neighbor to treat a cold balk at the idea that their neighbor or friend could suggest an effective treatment for cancer.

              It seems to give us a starting point for a conversation and helps remove some of the bristly political angles. From these conversations I've begun to understand how difficult an up hill battle it will be for any of us who think this more like a cancer. We can't expect anyone who thinks they can just cruise down to the metaphorical drug store for a Neti Pot to seek out expensive and invasive treatments. It is up to us to explain the symptoms and the possible outcomes in an a political and calm manner and let people come to their own conclusions.
              unfortunately, the body politic has an enormous capacity for denial. i'm afraid that we'll need to go much further, with many more environmental disasters, before this issue will be taken seriously. and by then, of course, any remediation will be much more limited in efficacy and much more expensive as well.

              but then, i'm a pessimist, and would love to be proven wrong. research shows, however, that pessimists are much more accurate in their predictions than optimists, but otoh optimists are happier people.

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              • #22
                Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                Originally posted by jk View Post
                ...but then, i'm a pessimist, and would love to be proven wrong. research shows, however, that pessimists are much more accurate in their predictions than optimists, but otoh optimists are happier people.
                I am an optimist and I have to agree that I'm often wrong. But, I always see how a situation can become better and encourage people around me to focus on that possibility rather than focus on the obvious possibility that we may fail. We business people are a bit like gamblers, we can afford to be right 1 or 2 out of 10 times as long as we limit our losses and ride our successes as far as possible. You don't have that luxury. You can't gamble with people's lives. I don't think that makes you a pessimist, it makes you a realist.

                There is a very real chance that we will push this experiment too far but I choose to think we can turn this around if we don't stand by and buy into the denier's last refuge, "It's too late.".

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                • #23
                  Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                  I am not sure that it is too late, but too late for what? If you mean halt the increase in carbon usage, I think that will happen eventually. It seems to have already happened in the U.S. and Europe.

                  http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghg...gases/co2.html

                  #######################
                  Efficiencies take time to develop; we are doing it very fast and will continue to do so.

                  What can we reasonably expect to happen over the next decade? Isn't it time for cooling now based on the solar cycle? Will that not let us humans put off the reckoning for at least another decade or two. Will it be too late then?

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                  • #24
                    Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                    Originally posted by shiny! View Post
                    Thanks. I'll take it!
                    Me Too! Unlike most Californians, I know how to drive in rain and snow! And up in the mountains we were so warm and dry last spring that there were only a handful of wildflowers. As it is, my White Lilac decided to bloom last week, and all my bulbs are coming up where I water...In October! 3-4 months early!!!

                    Thank you YHVH for the Greenhouse, and the solar that is finally working! I'll be tripling my solar next spring...it turns out that the Greenhouse loves to eat electricity. On the other hand, I did so well growing things that all the aphid farming ants within a mile moved in, and we had to slaughter them to keep the food.

                    By the way, how is your cat?

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                      meanwhile on the political economic side, with Naomi Klein . . .





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                      • #26
                        Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                        This is a short clip exposing Klein; more in depth research follows:

                        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqLAYg6pDGg



                        Klein's analysis have been shown to have questionable scholarship:

                        http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ec...ckdoctrine.pdf


                        "Read The Klein Doctrine The Rise of Disaster Polemics by Johan Norberg


                        He debunks her 'shock doctrine' in just 20 pages."


                        http://www.cato.org/publications/bri...aster-polemics


                        http://reason.com/archives/2008/09/2...ilton-friedman

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                        • #27
                          Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                          Originally posted by don View Post
                          ​meanwhile, Fukushima moves on . . . .
                          and thats the most hilarious - but mostly nefarious - part of the whole discussion re: global-climate-warming-change, carbon this, carbon that, sea level rise, polar icecap melting = yada yada yada....

                          we keep hearing about the 'urgent need' for reducing coal, oil, gas COMBUSTION - but they never really want to talk about just HOW thats going to happen (beyond the 100s of billions to trillions already spent for single digit offsets of current demand with the politico/enviro-mentally correct solutions that have no hope of providing the quantum leap thats actually REQUIRED to meaningfully offset combustion for energy)

                          when the only REAL alternative (to combustion) already exists - in which the US owns outright ALL of the technology, knowhow, raw materials - not to mention has SPENT 10'S OF BILLIONS on a reasonably safe/acceptable solution on the waste issue (but then prince harry and queen nancy shut it down, AFTER all the money had been spent in harry's district) ?

                          when the US is in DIRE NEED of a manufacturing-based resurgence to create LOTS of high paying WORKING CLASS JOBS ??? (vs the political/crony class jobs for the FIreM brigade)

                          if this ISNT the definition of insanity, i just couldnt imagine what would be (well... except for whats been going on since 1976-77 when the luddites shutdown seabrook and the US embarked upon endless war for oil and endless budget deficits to pay for it - which continues to transfer TRILLIONS to countries that would just as soon wipe US off the map - but other than that....)

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                            Originally posted by lektrode View Post
                            and thats the most hilarious - but mostly nefarious - part of the whole discussion re: global-climate-warming-change, carbon this, carbon that, sea level rise, polar icecap melting = yada yada yada....

                            we keep hearing about the 'urgent need' for reducing coal, oil, gas COMBUSTION - but they never really want to talk about just HOW thats going to happen (beyond the 100s of billions to trillions already spent for single digit offsets of current demand with the politico/enviro-mentally correct solutions that have no hope of providing the quantum leap thats actually REQUIRED to meaningfully offset combustion for energy)

                            when the only REAL alternative (to combustion) already exists - in which the US owns outright ALL of the technology, knowhow, raw materials - not to mention has SPENT 10'S OF BILLIONS on a reasonably safe/acceptable solution on the waste issue (but then prince harry and queen nancy shut it down, AFTER all the money had been spent in harry's district) ?

                            when the US is in DIRE NEED of a manufacturing-based resurgence to create LOTS of high paying WORKING CLASS JOBS ??? (vs the political/crony class jobs for the FIreM brigade)

                            if this ISNT the definition of insanity, i just couldnt imagine what would be (well... except for whats been going on since 1976-77 when the luddites shutdown seabrook and the US embarked upon endless war for oil and endless budget deficits to pay for it - which continues to transfer TRILLIONS to countries that would just as soon wipe US off the map - but other than that....)
                            Terrific Lextrode!

                            The envirowackos probably want us to live in tents and burn wood for heat and cooking

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                            • #29
                              Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                              Originally posted by vt View Post
                              ....The envirowackos probably want us to live in tents and burn wood for heat and cooking
                              more like become rice/beans/soy vegetarians and live in mud/straw huts = 'all natural'
                              (for us proles anyway - the 'ruling class' would still have the beltway and air-flown-fresh everything....)

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                                Originally posted by Forrest View Post
                                Me Too! Unlike most Californians, I know how to drive in rain and snow! And up in the mountains we were so warm and dry last spring that there were only a handful of wildflowers. As it is, my White Lilac decided to bloom last week, and all my bulbs are coming up where I water...In October! 3-4 months early!!!

                                Thank you YHVH for the Greenhouse, and the solar that is finally working! I'll be tripling my solar next spring...it turns out that the Greenhouse loves to eat electricity. On the other hand, I did so well growing things that all the aphid farming ants within a mile moved in, and we had to slaughter them to keep the food.

                                By the way, how is your cat?
                                It's nice to hear your flowers are blooming and food is abundant.

                                Kitties are wonderful, thanks for asking. The tonkinese is 14 and healthy. The white, deaf kitty is 13 and a happy boy. I treasure every day with him because most triaditis kitties don't live this long.

                                Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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