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2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

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  • 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

    Gore, Hansen, etc etc all declared there would be more hurricanes, and worse ones, all due to the evil CO2 produced by humans.

    Yet there hasn't been a US hurricane landfall since 2005 (last one: Hurricane Wilma).

    This will have been the longest period between landfalls since 1900.

    Nor is there any type of trend in the past 111 years in this statistic.

    http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/20...ne-record.html

    On December 4, 2011 it will have been 2,232 days since Hurricane Wilma made landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 3 storm back in 2005. That number of days will break the existing record of days between major US hurricane landfalls, which previously was between 8 Sept 1900 (the great Galveston Hurricane) and 19 Oct 1906. Since there won't be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days.

    If you are in the insurance or reinsurance business and want to stir up a little constructive mischief, you should ask your favorite catastrophe modeling firm or ratings agency to show you the mathematics behind their estimate of the probability of zero intense hurricane landfalls from 2006 to present (both made at the time and what they'd say today). (Hint: Zero. Zip. Nada.).

    This remarkable streak has to end sometime, and likely won't be repeated anytime soon.

  • #2
    Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

    They are such scurrilous bastards. We barely dodged a very expensive wealth transfer scam of epic proportions. Just barely, which reflects poorly on us. But where is their apology?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

      gentlemen, your timelines are showing. . .

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

        As I'm about to close on property in hurricane country, I get the news it's overdue . . .

        Long overdue.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

          We're headed back into another hurricane season - will the ongoing record finally get capped off?

          The sad part is that the Al Gore-ian trumpeting of hurricane disaster has been completely wrong for a 112 year old record span, yet no comments beyond the shifting of climate disaster focuses to other types of events.

          No doubt a major hurricane landfall this year will also get trumpeted as "being due to anthropogenic climate change due to carbon emissions".

          The even more sad part is the possibility that hurricanes, tornadoes, and other similar atmospheric mixing phenomena may in fact be the atmospheric equivalent of earthquakes, only equalizing heat from different bands of the atmosphere as opposed to equalizing stresses built up by plate tectonics. And if so, the strengths of hurricanes are as equally unpredictable as the strengths of earthquakes, and absolutely unrelated to CO2.

          Unfortunately this meme is unacceptable as it then implies a self regulating aspect to the climate - which in turn means anthropogenic CO2 climate catastrophe is improbable and or overstated.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

            c1ue, please, we just moved to Florida!

            Mums the word . . . .

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            • #7
              Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

              here's a link to a satellite image that I named "hurricane nursery" in my browser.

              http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/vis.jpg

              All the Atlantic hurricanes start as storms rolling off Africa
              Here's the image


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              • #8
                Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                I think i remember ... and I am old and have kids, so a lot of mixup goes on. In discovery or sci-american they are posutating that even though ocean temperatures are rising which is one factor in creating hurricanes. Another negative factor is high altitude winds, that can prevent the hurricane from forming, and the rising sea temps seem to increase upper level winds, thus dampening the rising sea temperature effect on hurricane formation.
                Last edited by charliebrown; 05-19-12, 08:11 AM.

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                • #9
                  Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                  Originally posted by charliebrown
                  In discovery or sci-american that they are posutating that even though ocean temperatures are rising which is one factor in creating hurricanes. Another negative factor is high altitude winds, that can prevent the hurricane from forming, and the rising sea temps seem to increase upper level winds, thus dampening the rising sea temperature effect on hurricane formation.
                  The problem with all of the temperature statements above is that if hurricanes are related to temperature in any absolute or relative fashion, there is a severe disconnect between temperatures which are higher now than say the Katrina era yet there are no hurricanes over Cat 3 that have hit land almost literally since Katrina.

                  As for the high winds - I'd like to see some information in which the high winds in the past 6.5 years and counting are in some way fundamentally different than the 6.5 years before that.

                  Lastly there is another fundamental error embedded: a higher ocean temperature does not actually affect hurricane energy. It is the difference between ocean temperatures and atmospheric temperatures which forms the basis for how hurricanes gain energy.

                  Thus once again, if ocean and land temperatures are essentially rising and falling at the same rate (which they have been), then there is no reason whatsoever to think that hurricane energy or frequency should be in any way different.

                  Which brings us back to the original point: the many and fulsome public pronouncements of Hurricane Doom have failed miserably.

                  Where then is the admission of error?

                  This failure to acknowledge error underlies so many of the claims that have been made by the climate doomsayers, ranging from Hansen's New York flooding, to temperature projections from 1998 onwards, to glacier melting, droughts, flooding, etc etc.

                  At what point does the credibility of these failed prophets begin to decline?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                    although this is a non-sequitur ...

                    Purchasing a $300k home on the east coast of florida (not on the water).
                    Lowest insurance quote I've received is $5500/yr with a 2% deductible - and they say it's because of the big hurricane from 2004 and the losses incurred. HA!
                    Apparently rates have been going up 10+% per year for the past (you guessed it, 3 or 4 yrs -- hmmmmm coincidence)

                    The truth is more like we live in a ZIRP environment and Ins Cos can't get yield. Thanks Fed

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                      c
                      Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
                      The truth is more like we live in a ZIRP environment and Ins Cos can't get yield. Thanks Fed
                      merely yet another negative effect - not to get offtrack on this thread, but are there _any_ positive effects of ZIRP beyond what its done to gold and the BS 'wealth effect' of a fraudulant runup in the dow? (besides fattening the balance sheets/bottom lines of TBTF Inc, that is)

                      my rate out here, for a 150k replacement value, with 'hurricane rider' in an area that (apparently) hasnt suffered a direct hit in a century (quite a ways up from the beach) = appx 870year (up from 759 in 2004)

                      and i sure hope don isnt on/near the beach... (even for rich n famous authors like him, it could get painful ;)

                      O&BTW - the s/o just got the rate for the place she just bought in SLC: 308/year, for (i think) a 150k replacement cost
                      Last edited by lektrode; 05-18-12, 08:47 PM. Reason: chgd '12 prem/rate to 870 from 850

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                        latest predictions for 2012 hurricane season
                        http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

                        Originally posted by CSU/tropical wx

                        We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niņo event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
                        (as of 4 April 2012)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                          Originally posted by vinoveri
                          Purchasing a $300k home on the east coast of florida (not on the water).
                          Lowest insurance quote I've received is $5500/yr with a 2% deductible - and they say it's because of the big hurricane from 2004 and the losses incurred. HA!
                          Apparently rates have been going up 10+% per year for the past (you guessed it, 3 or 4 yrs -- hmmmmm coincidence)

                          The truth is more like we live in a ZIRP environment and Ins Cos can't get yield. Thanks Fed
                          Actually it is more likely because of the 'new' hurricane models - you know the ones which predicted more and nastier hurricanes which have failed completely?

                          http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/20...el-mayhem.html

                          Writing at her blog, The Short Run, my superstar grad student Jessica Weinkle looks at recent catastrophe model filings in the state of Florida, as part of her dissertation research:
                          In America's deep south, a region not so far away, hides a new foe threatening otherwise intelligent people's ability to decide. The Louisiana Insurance Commissioner, Jim Donelone, has rung the alarm putting homeowners on alert of "The looming threat of the new cat model, RMS 11". This is the newest addition in the catastrophe model rogue gallery challenging the gallant efforts of state insurance regulating offices. The kryptonite in their coding is the incredible capacity to produce scientifically supported uncertainty thereby weakening the ability to control rates by politically hopeful insurance commissioners everywhere. A past episode between dueling regulating powers and risk predicting machinery demonstrated the societal cost inflicted by these dastardly foes creating uncertainty whenever plugged into a wall. In 2006, RMS rolled out an arbitrary change to their trusty hurricane catastrophe model in RiskLink 6.0, costing Florida homeowners $82 billion. Stay tuned to state regulating offices for the latest updates on the battle between man and machine...

                          In the mean time, let's take a closer look at these new trade secret rascals...

                          Weinkle uncovers some eyebrow raising factiods, such as the fact that the estimated probability of a Category 5 hurricane hitting Florida has apparently increased from previous model filings in several models by 100%. She also shows that across five different models, the estimated cost of a Category 5 storm in Florida ranges from $18 billion to $146 billion.

                          Based on these numbers, Weinkle calls the catastrophe models tools that create uncertainties and makes the nonobvious point that decisions about risk are actually decisions about modeled risk -- which may or may not be the same thing:

                          Together, these models create a great deal of uncertainty about the risk being insured against. In the world of insurance, uncertainty about the risk is risk in and of itself. If uncertainty increases, then the cost will too and vice versa. So, a reasonable question to ask would be, "Has the modeled risk changed?"

                          Not surprisingly, catastrophe models have faced some criticism, such as found in this recent news article from Louisiana:

                          Catastrophe models are controversial. Proponents say they bring science to underwriting and synthesize the latest understanding of storms and climate change to insurers. Opponents say they're gee-whiz black boxes that manufacture instant justification for high rates for insurers.

                          The problem with catastrophe models is not that they lack value (they are actually extremely powerful and potentially useful tools), it is just very hard to assess what that value is (e.g., PDF), and their black box nature makes such assessments extremely difficult. The lack of an industry-wide evaluation capability, strong hints of conflict of interest and the defensive nature of some of the cat modelers makes the issue a mine field of bad decisions for businesses and governments alike.
                          Let's see here: hurricane insurance regulated by state agencies. New cat model allows insurance companies to charge a lot more for their insurance. Coincidence?

                          This was before ZIRP, by the way...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                            Your basic premises are i think??? correct.

                            1) I assume storm intensity is in the transfer of energy, if water temperatures are higher their needs to be a cooler place to dump the energy.

                            2) Why don't we have some crow-eating on we got that one wrong.

                            3) This may tie into my whether forecast up here where every two inch event is wrath of god keep your kids inside seek shelter time ... Doom and Gloom sells which is good for the MSM business model, and for buys body politicians to have a talking point. Call all the doom and gloom meteorologists and give them mike. If anyone has a calming opinion don't call them.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2,232 days and counting since a major hurricane has hit the coast of the US

                              Originally posted by charliebrown
                              1) I assume storm intensity is in the transfer of energy, if water temperatures are higher their needs to be a cooler place to dump the energy.
                              The basic mechanism of a hurricane or tornado is where a cycle of circulation develops where rising hot air pulls down cold air, which in turn gets heated up and rises. The greater the temperature differential between the ocean/ground and the top of the hurricane (tropopause, or where all the water vapor in air falls out).

                              Thus the 'cooler' spot to dump the energy is constant: it is the tropopause. However, the ability of any such feedback loop described above to be able to generate positive feedback (i.e. grow) is a function of relative temperatures. The CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warmistas) argue that the higher absolute temperatures should make for fewer but stronger storms, but the historical record doesn't show any hint of this.

                              Originally posted by charliebrown
                              2) Why don't we have some crow-eating on we got that one wrong.
                              Unfortunately it is against human nature to confess error, doubly so when so much money is involved.

                              Originally posted by charliebrown
                              3) This may tie into my whether forecast up here where every two inch event is wrath of god keep your kids inside seek shelter time ... Doom and Gloom sells which is good for the MSM business model, and for buys body politicians to have a talking point. Call all the doom and gloom meteorologists and give them mike. If anyone has a calming opinion don't call them.
                              The problem with this statement is that the MSM is not the tail wagging the dog; the money that goes into climate science is government and NGOs, not the media. The balloon boy phenomenon can be an example of media driven events, but this doesn't apply to climate alarmism, though it is true the NGOs in particular are highly skilled in media 'communication'.

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