gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Andreuccio]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

not hindi, "muslim". I can't ever recall hearing (ph/f)irang from indians or pakistanis (hindi, punjabi or urdu) but hear it often among Iranians - some pronounce it "furengay".

I can't tell if this web page mean farsi or arabic or what when they write "muslim".

http://www.dailymuslims.com/Educatio...ed_Ulemas.html

I think I got "Indian" from here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firang

Firang or farang or farangi is a term, linked to the Franks, used in the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia to refer to any Westerner, especially people of western European descent. It was originally used to refer to foreigners, and is thought to have been used later as a pejorative term for British officers and gentry in India. Today it is used commonly to refer to any Westerner in casual conversations, akin to 'gaijin' in Japanese.

Did I mention Wikipedia is not your, or my, friend?

[Spartacus]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

I think I got "Indian" from here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firang



Did I mention Wikipedia is not your, or my, friend?

true ... And since I'm no scholar of Indian languages and haven't referenced original source documents, my contribution is completely anecdotal.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Jim, do not be mistaken, if there was an Itulip convention, you'd all probably think I was crashing it. Most of the time, I'm just hoping to add some valid data/information to the discussions.

babbittd, it seems you think I wrote something exclusionary to your contribution? I don't think so, but if I did it was not intended to be negative.

Actually, it is rather interesting to be collecting these various and sundry speculations as to how low PM's might go.

I would put forth one myself, but I don't have the faintest idea where it will end, or if it has ended.

Anyone else running across various pundit's projections should put them in this thread.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Are you saying that gold will not fall below 780 in the next year?

Hugh Hendry of Eclectica hedge fund indicating gold to $600
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26282751

Hussman also calling for a decline in commodities

The slip in gold, which was joined by fellow precious metals platinum, silver and palladium, dragged it well below its all-time high of just over $1000 an ounce in March.

But that was predicatble, Hendry said.

Bull markets "of this variety, with the potential to trade higher, paradoxically can have these savage, and quite prolonged, bear market components, and I fear that is where we are headed," he said.

The "current markets could take gold as low as $600 or $550 per ounce," he added.

"I have greater comfort being in 10-year bonds than gold for the first time in ages," Hendry

Hendry also thinks the banking sector is insolvent, can't tell how low those stocks will go, and that FRE and FNM are likely to be put under the control of the Treasury "in a matter of months."

[touchring]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Got another batch of SKFs at 113 and 120, when Cramer was shouting, "The bear has ended! Say hello to the bull!". :eek:

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Hendry also thinks the banking sector is insolvent, can't tell how low those stocks will go, and that FRE and FNM are likely to be put under the control of the Treasury "in a matter of months."

I see where Hugh is coming from: upon nationalizing mbs', the risk for default amongst american banks goes to zero as bad loans become zombie loans (ahem japan ahem ahem). With US taxpayer backstopping MBS' and essentially the nations banks, credit is preserved without lowering interest rates and you can now lend again: hooray, the dollar is saved.

There's ONE big problem with his hypothesis: he totally neglects how US creditors will react to this. He assumes, and this is dangerous, that foreign cb's and swf's will remain tractable, i.e. famous line, "deficits don't matter".

The US Empire is literally at stake: without the ability to export inflation, we cant finance it.

[Slimprofits]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

babbittd, it seems you think I wrote something exclusionary to your contribution? I don't think so, but if I did it was not intended to be negative.

Nope, just wanted to be clear with where my contribution is coming from.

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

I see where Hugh is coming from: upon nationalizing mbs', the risk for default amongst american banks goes to zero as bad loans become zombie loans (ahem japan ahem ahem). With US taxpayer backstopping MBS' and essentially the nations banks, credit is preserved without lowering interest rates and you can now lend again: hooray, the dollar is saved.

There's ONE big problem with his hypothesis: he totally neglects how US creditors will react to this. He assumes, and this is dangerous, that foreign cb's and swf's will remain tractable, i.e. famous line, "deficits don't matter".

The US Empire is literally at stake: without the ability to export inflation, we cant finance it.

it's an odd fact that spreads on gse bonds have widened since their guarantee became explicit, compared with what they were when the federal guarantee was merely implicit. it looks like a [market driven implicit] downgrade of the u.s. treasury itself.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

it's an odd fact that spreads on gse bonds have widened since their guarantee became explicit, compared with what they were when the federal guarantee was merely implicit. it looks like a [market driven implicit] downgrade of the u.s. treasury itself.

maybe the market is being cautious, assuming that all seniority of creditors could get wiped out, since the US will have to raise a lot of debt to bailout the mortgages themselves, leaving nothing even for most seniro debt holders.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Agree with Eric. I think we just passed the bottom on gold. Like EJ, can't say exactly why other than it just feels like time.

Other factors are the recent bear market rally is now faltering and we just passed the 4 month mark since gold peaked which is about how long the 2006 correction lasted.

[EJ]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Agree with Eric. I think we just passed the bottom on gold. Like EJ, can't say exactly why other than it just feels like time.

Other factors are the recent bear market rally is now faltering and we just passed the 4 month mark since gold peaked which is about how long the 2006 correction lasted.

That's not exactly what I said. After being around gold since 1973 when I was 16 years old, spending 1000s of hours over 30 years researching and writing about it and doing careful analysis, buying and selling it, and coming up with the theory of the Dollar Ratchet to explain the current pricing environment, and talking to dozens of hedge fund managers and gold experts and hard assets fund managers over many years, I have a way of figuring out the price that appears to work, at least for now. If I were to add up all the long term costs of developing this pricing system, it'd surely run into the millions of dollars.

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

EJ - I'm sincerely hoping and wishing your call here is correct. But I think it can go a fair bit lower. I've read more than one call for this. I say on Thursday / Friday in the afternoon sessions this gets ugly all over again. Hope to Betsy I am flat wrong. May I inquire also, what your best guess is as to when the dollar's apparent breakout will top out? Before 80 on the USD index, or can it go up as far as 85? I know, this sort of intel is for premium members only - but throw a bone here to the public on this juncture maybe? I think it's going to cruise right up past 80. Hope I'm wrong! Anyway, I'm going to fold up my tent as a public member and "sign up" with the lime green card-carrying cohorts this week! (groans of disapproval, from numerous members here, at the prospect of the noisy and interminably lengthy posting Lukester moving over to clog up the premium pages with redundant comments). Can't do without the iTulip guidance in the next few years! Meanwhile I can only commend the overwhelmingly super-accurate calls on your part EJ. This one ain't gonna work out though, I'm guessing!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

EJ - I'm sincerely hoping and wishing your call here is correct. But I think it can go a fair bit lower. I've read more than one call for this. I say on Thursday / Friday in the afternoon sessions this gets ugly all over again. Hope to Betsy I am flat wrong. May I inquire also, what your best guess is as to when the dollar's apparent breakout will top out? Before 80 on the USD index, or can it go up as far as 85? I know, this sort of intel is for premium members only - but throw a bone here to the public on this juncture maybe? I think it's going to cruise right up past 80. Hope I'm wrong! Anyway, I'm going to fold up my tent as a public member and "sign up" with the lime green card-carrying cohorts this week! (groans of disapproval, from numerous members here, at the prospect of the noisy and interminably lengthy posting Lukester moving over to clog up the premium pages with redundant comments). Can't do without the iTulip guidance in the next few years! Meanwhile I can only commend the overwhelmingly super-accurate calls on your part EJ. This one ain't gonna work out though, I'm guessing!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Apologies for this useless one liner.

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

I knew it would get a laugh out of you. Oh well, it was nice having the run of the premium pages without me for so long Jim. All good things must come to an end, eh?

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Apologies for this useless one liner.

ah, c'mon, jim. it'll be fun having luke in the back room behind the main room of the itulip bar and grill. too stuffy in there anyway... we can use the levity.