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Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

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  • Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

    The extent of last years financial collapse caused deep systemic shock and insecurity to world governments, democratically elected political leaders by their nature are insecure and need to believe they operate within a predictable system that ensures their security and control and that future events over which they have authority progress substantially according to expectations or at least gives them adequate cover if they don't,

    The shock of last years events were of such magnitude that the resulting threat caused a temporary focus away from many national interests in favor of supranational solutions, governments in this instant looked to find their bearings, needed a breathing space and instinctively looked to rally around a common cause, it was almost as though national interests were paralyzed and a common cause ignited as an alien spaceship hovered menacingly in the sky threatening the existence of earth,

    From disagreements emerging at the world economic forum at Davos It appears that we now move to the next entirely predictable but very dangerous, accelerating and possibly unstoppable phase where governments regardless of culpability find it politically expedient to polarize and hold other nations responsible for their problems,

  • #2
    Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

    Yep, right on schedule, as one would expect - after the fall everyone is looking around for someone else to blame. From here to WW3 in 4 years, or 6?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

      Originally posted by amacfly View Post
      From here to WW3 in 4 years, or 6?
      Who would go to war? Nuclear weapons have made the prospect of war politically, economically, and socially untenable.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

        Don't think that reason will have a place in this war, it will start like a forest fire after a very dry summer with a single lightening strike. Most likely it be with Israel defending itself against something. It may start small, but it'll grow big as fast as the wild fires we see out here in California.

        Russia & China have a lot of debt and oil futures tied up in Iran, enough for them to care if Israel strikes first. Israel is the largest single donor to the US political system, so has only allies on both sides of the house, thus any aggression that happens in response is sure to be met with a fierce US backed counter strike. Then you have Pakistan wound up like an over tightened spring ready to snap, equipped with big bad bombs sitting on top of good delivery systems, and they hate us Judo-Christians too!

        Add to that the cultural, economic and social divides running through a Europe filled with poor Muslims, and you imagine how irrational hatred will tear populations apart, and also be used to polarize the masses. Nationalism will rise up under many new names, but everyone of them will deny they are nationalists, they'll call themselves Patriots. Thats all the Nazi's were, German patriots struggling against the consequences of the Versailles Treaty, a life of unendurable and unrepayable foreign debt.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

          Once again, nuclear weapons virtually ensure that a conventional war will not be waged. Do you really think any nation will risk the utter annihilation of humanity? It is simply politically, economically, and socially untenable, like I said.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

            Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
            Once again, nuclear weapons virtually ensure that a conventional war will not be waged. Do you really think any nation will risk the utter annihilation of humanity? It is simply politically, economically, and socially untenable, like I said.
            They don't seem to have stopped the "conventional wars" now being waged in different geographies over the globe. . .

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

              Originally posted by KGW View Post
              They don't seem to have stopped the "conventional wars" now being waged in different geographies over the globe. . .
              And who among these countries (that are both engaged in a conventional war with each other) are nuclear powers?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                Originally posted by open4 View Post
                The extent of last years financial collapse caused deep systemic shock and insecurity to world governments, democratically elected political leaders by their nature are insecure and need to believe they operate within a predictable system that ensures their security and control and that future events over which they have authority progress substantially according to expectations or at least gives them adequate cover if they don't,

                The shock of last years events were of such magnitude that the resulting threat caused a temporary focus away from many national interests in favor of supranational solutions, governments in this instant looked to find their bearings, needed a breathing space and instinctively looked to rally around a common cause, it was almost as though national interests were paralyzed and a common cause ignited as an alien spaceship hovered menacingly in the sky threatening the existence of earth,

                From disagreements emerging at the world economic forum at Davos It appears that we now move to the next entirely predictable but very dangerous, accelerating and possibly unstoppable phase where governments regardless of culpability find it politically expedient to polarize and hold other nations responsible for their problems,
                are you saying we're already at the 12th day?

                Twelve Days of a Christmas Bust 2007 - iTulip 2006



                On the first day of Christmas,
                my central banker gave to me
                A post-housing bust economy.



                Source: Haver Analytics

                On the second day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Source: Washington Monthly

                On the third day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.




                On the fourth day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Alpha seeking sheep line up for another shearing

                On the fifth day of Christmas,
                my central banker gave to me
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.




                On the six day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.




                On the seventh day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Seven stock markets a-crashing,
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.




                On the eighth day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Eight million derivatives contracts un-delivered,
                Seven stock markets a-crashing,
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Source: The Economist

                On the ninth day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Nine private equity firms a-shutting,
                Eight million derivatives contracts un-delivered,
                Seven stock markets a-crashing,
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Argentina Bank Closure, 2002
                Source: BBC

                On the tenth day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Ten banks a-failing,
                Nine private equity firms a-shutting,
                Eight million derivatives contracts un-delivered,
                Seven stock markets a-crashing,
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Soup Line, Russia 1999

                On the eleventh day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Eleven nations in recession,
                Ten banks a-failing,
                Nine private equity firms a-shutting,
                Eight million derivatives contracts un-delivered,
                Seven stock markets a-crashing,
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing,
                Five million panicking speculators,
                Four collapsing currencies,
                Three million credit defaults,
                Two million insolvent households,
                In a post-housing bust economy.



                Source: GlobalSecurity.org

                On the twelfth day of Christmas,
                My central banker gave to me
                Twelve wars a-raging, ???
                Eleven nations in recession, √
                Ten banks a-failing, √
                Nine private equity firms a-shutting, √
                Eight million derivatives contracts un-delivered, √
                Seven stock markets a-crashing, √
                Six hundred hedge funds a-closing, √
                Five million panicking speculators, √
                Four collapsing currencies, √
                Three million credit defaults, √
                Two million insolvent households, √
                In a post-housing bust economy.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                  Originally posted by open4 View Post
                  The extent of last years financial collapse caused deep systemic shock and insecurity to world governments, democratically elected political leaders by their nature are insecure and need to believe they operate within a predictable system that ensures their security and control and that future events over which they have authority progress substantially according to expectations or at least gives them adequate cover if they don't,

                  The shock of last years events were of such magnitude that the resulting threat caused a temporary focus away from many national interests in favor of supranational solutions, governments in this instant looked to find their bearings, needed a breathing space and instinctively looked to rally around a common cause, it was almost as though national interests were paralyzed and a common cause ignited as an alien spaceship hovered menacingly in the sky threatening the existence of earth,

                  From disagreements emerging at the world economic forum at Davos It appears that we now move to the next entirely predictable but very dangerous, accelerating and possibly unstoppable phase where governments regardless of culpability find it politically expedient to polarize and hold other nations responsible for their problems,

                  Good times in the offing then?:rolleyes:

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                    Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
                    Once again, nuclear weapons virtually ensure that a conventional war will not be waged. Do you really think any nation will risk the utter annihilation of humanity? It is simply politically, economically, and socially untenable, like I said.
                    Never underestimate the stupidity of those in power. You won't be around to regret that mistake. No body is going to "choose" to go to a nuke war, they happen by accident.

                    Se how close we really came towards having one with the cuban missle crisis. And that was amongst players with a balance of terror (read MAD). Imagine what can happen in a state like pakistan where the ISI and the military hold the button for their arsenal.

                    One false move is all it takes for an accident to happen. Every player on the world scene has to get it perfect every time to not risk a major conflagration errupting at this point. Based on the record so far in 2009, I'm not hopeful.

                    CHeck this out between Israel and Turkey at Davos. If this gets traction, you are going to see fireworks ALL OVER THE MUSLIM WORLD.

                    Erdogan is the only leader of a Muslism Country (Secular) to take Isreal to task over Gaza besides Ahmadinjad. This has traction and staying power. Everyone should watch this very carefully.

                    This is an accident waiting to happen.

                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHZusFgq3QU

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                      It is indeed a big deal. Turkey has been one or Israel's most reliable and stable partners in the ME under secular regimes. Erdogan is overturning decades of carefully stitched together entente between Turkey and Israel, and that entente was the cornerstone of relative poles of moderate secular regimes in the region. Where Turkey chooses to go, so will the whole region. It's a tectonic shift in alliances there and Turkey has the power to lead a massive groundswell movement in an entirely different direction. IMO Erdogan is showing his true colors here. If left to his own devices he will overturn Turkey's secularist anchor and move the country into another direction entirely - big caveat, if the Turkish army allows it. Truly amazing to see what a small pinch of theological conservatism and partisanship can do, to mutate the formerly very stabilizing foreign policy of what has historically been one of the anchors of political secularism in the Eastern Meditterranean. I am a big admirer of Turkey's role in modern times, for it's heritage as one of the preeminent leaders of the Muslim world, for it's vast hidden legacy for a natural leadership of all the Turkic nations to the east across the Caucasus into central Asia, and it's exemplary experiment in Muslim faith woven into a modern secular nation. I greatly admire Ataturk. Turkey has the makings of a superpower in it's own right in the mid part of this century. I don't trust Erdogan to conserve that fine legacy within it's modern heritage as envisioned by Ataturk.

                      Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                      Never underestimate the stupidity of those in power. You won't be around to regret that mistake. No body is going to "choose" to go to a nuke war, they happen by accident.

                      Se how close we really came towards having one with the cuban missle crisis. And that was amongst players with a balance of terror (read MAD). Imagine what can happen in a state like pakistan where the ISI and the military hold the button for their arsenal.

                      One false move is all it takes for an accident to happen. Every player on the world scene has to get it perfect every time to not risk a major conflagration errupting at this point. Based on the record so far in 2009, I'm not hopeful.

                      CHeck this out between Israel and Turkey at Davos. If this gets traction, you are going to see fireworks ALL OVER THE MUSLIM WORLD.

                      Erdogan is the only leader of a Muslism Country (Secular) to take Isreal to task over Gaza besides Ahmadinjad. This has traction and staying power. Everyone should watch this very carefully.

                      This is an accident waiting to happen.

                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHZusFgq3QU
                      Last edited by Contemptuous; 01-29-09, 11:53 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                        Nuclear incidents are far more likely now than they were at any time in the past. Remember it may not be a state that starts the first reaction in the chain that leads to The Big One. To understand this I re-recommend reading The Shield of Achilles:

                        http://itulip.com/forums/showpost.ph...74&postcount=1

                        or Martin Van Creveld's Rise and Decline of the State.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                          Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                          Erdogan is the only leader of a Muslism Country (Secular) to take Isreal to task over Gaza besides Ahmadinjad. This has traction and staying power. Everyone should watch this very carefully.
                          Erdogan is right, but he is also a hypocrite and a criminal, himself.
                          I don't think it will progress, I think he was just letting off steam.
                          It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                            The most fundamentalist regime in the ME is none other than Israel. The Zionists are nothing but bandits, and the sooner the American people rid themselves of this ball and chain around their ankles, the better off the whole world will be. For without AIPAC, Israel descends into oblivion.

                            That is simply not an option, there are too many people living there who must find a way to live in peace together in the region.

                            While I think David Rothchild was wrong to persuade the UK Govt to allow him to 'take' Palestine after WW2, the deed is now done, and the only way ahead lies in finding a way for the two tribes to co-exist.

                            It will be incredibly hard, because by and large the Arabs are people of the heart, and from their perspective they have had their homeland stolen. The Jews are people of the head, with extraordinary powers of reason, but they will never understand the position of those they have displaced because they cannot be reasoned with.

                            The problem is huge, but there is simply no other way going forward than trying to find a real balance. I really hope it doesn't end in a war, because we and the EU will be dragged into it. However I suspect that the reconciliation that is needed won't happen until after something so terrible happens that it forces unity on the peoples of the eastern Mediterranean. My greatest fear is that that 'terrible' may just be nuclear.
                            Last edited by amacfly; 01-30-09, 12:56 PM. Reason: I seem to have responded to a post that was deleted?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Now the most dangerous phase of the fiat money and credit cycle begins

                              Nuke war not possible? Ah, how I miss those days of my youthful optimism.

                              Nuclear war won't automatically mean mutual destruction. A few small nukes flying between India and Pakistan perhaps, won't end the world. Make it a nasty place to live, certainly, but the earth won't fall off its axis. I agree it makes total war an unlikely scenario. But history is full of limited warfare waged between nations. England could have crushed America militarily if it had wanted to pay the cost. Instead they fought a low grade war until their accountants finally persuaded the King it wasn't worth the effort. Fact is, any nuke capable country without missile submarines is capable of losing to a massive first strike. Remember, only the cold war kept the balance of power in that regard. Any enemy of the US was a friend of Russia and vice versa. That's not always true anymore, though Putin and Bush were doing there best to get back to those days.

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