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  • peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

    Was assured that we where about to go "Mad Max".........now dirt cheap!
    Wot Happened????????????

    Mike

  • #2
    Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

    Originally posted by Mega View Post
    Was assured that we where about to go "Mad Max".........now dirt cheap!
    Wot Happened????????????

    Mike
    Dirt cheap now? Time for you to go out and buy a diesel F-350 Mega...

    [Moral of the story? Never, ever, ever bet against the ingenuity and adaptability of the USA and its economy]

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    • #3
      Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

      I continue to believe that there is huge potential in energy conservation, and that right now there is a quiet, nearly invisible global shift underway, from LED lights to highly insulated homes to energy efficient VFD control of industrial motors. I think it will give a permanent downward shift in per-capita energy consumption that will delay the effects of peak cheap oil and will probably kill coal in the US and europe.

      Here's a cool startup that has found one great little niche application for hybrid vehicles - garbage trucks.
      They've put a tiny gas turbine on the truck frame pushing the generator, and made the drive line all electric.

      All that heavy start-stop for a garbage truck is horrible for a diesel engine with a conventional transmission, but an electric drive train makes that easy.
      High initial price (an extra $150,000) but saves over $40,000 a year in fuel for a typical garbage truck. Much more quiet, and should have lower maintenance costs.

      http://www.wrightspeed.com/technology

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      • #4
        Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

        Horizontal completions. Used to take 50 wells to get 10% of the hydrocarbons from a small reservoir. Now 1 pad can drill 6 laterals and get 50%. I doubt oil will ever be extremely expensive again.

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        • #5
          Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

          Originally posted by cbr View Post
          Horizontal completions. Used to take 50 wells to get 10% of the hydrocarbons from a small reservoir. Now 1 pad can drill 6 laterals and get 50%. I doubt oil will ever be extremely expensive again.
          Thanks cbr.
          When you combine the technical advances you describe; the conservation trends I describe; and a soft global economy, it seems going long on oil might be a bad bet.

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          • #6
            Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

            Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
            When you combine the technical advances you describe; the conservation trends I describe; and a soft global economy, it seems going long on oil might be a bad bet.
            We learned this from al-Naimi when oil prices began to fall in 2014. The low price producer has no intention of cutting back. Then Saudi Aramco announced their intention to go public and SA announced plans to move into non hydrocarbon areas of investment.

            I was in Sam's Club this morning and noticed they have on one side of an entire isle dedicated to LED lighting. All types of commercial and residential lights, CFL had maybe 5% of the space and incandescent nothing. Electric cars are also gaining traction, (sorry couldn't resist), and Tesla's battery systems will also cut into traditional energy use. And as the US proved from 2009-14, given expensive oil, there are technological answers....sorry Oklahoma, no one saw that problem coming.

            I don't see a scenario where oil will move over $100 for a long period of time. There's too much competition at that price level and alternative energy just keeps getting less expensive.

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            • #7
              Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

              More news
              http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...hnology-smash/

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              • #8
                Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

                Spotted an interesting article about the connection between energy usage and GPD growth.
                Full article here http://qz.com/791865/climate-change-...bon-emissions/

                The author claims that energy use has decoupled from GPD growth for the first time (in any large meaningful way).
                Perhaps energy conservation is having major impacts.
                Here's the chart for the U.S.

                Over the long term this looks like good news for people and bad news for the price of oil.

                GPD and CO2.jpg

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                • #9
                  Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

                  .


                  Energy consumption has been growing more slowly than real GDP.
                  below shows US energy consumption per 1996 dollar of GDP.

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                  • #10
                    Re: peek oil...........what the Hell happened?

                    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                    Dirt cheap now? Time for you to go out and buy a diesel F-350 Mega...

                    [Moral of the story? Never, ever, ever bet against the ingenuity and adaptability of the USA and its economy]
                    I recently went for an interview at a small oil well tool maker in Texas. The founder was talking to me and said the country should
                    be called "The united states of ingenuity". He was referring to a report he had read that a US oil producer had figured out how to be
                    profitable at $25/barrel. He thought that Saudi Arabia had shot itself in the foot by overproducing, and we discussed whether
                    the motivation was to drive American producers out of business or bankrupt Russia.
                    Last edited by Polish_Silver; 09-30-16, 08:29 AM.

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