"Worst is yet to come"

[hellstan]

Roubini, Roach, Shiller, and others.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/c...?story_id=4590

[don]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

The official "Contrarians" are getting more air play, right on iTulip's schedule

[stockman]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

I notice Shiller updated his data on the Yale web site http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Shiller PE 10 010409.jpg

Shiller Real S&P 500 010409.jpg

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Good find, Hellstan, or a helluva find.

These are brief statements by some people that should know WTF of which they are writing, and the five or six brief pieces are all comprehensible by me any any others of you who are not schooled in econmics, banking, etc.

Good find, should be read by everyone who harbors notions of clear sailing ahead.

[Supercilious]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Roubini, Roach, Shiller, and others.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/c...?story_id=4590

The problem is that they don't specify for whom the "Worst is yet to come".
Here is a very interesting piece on China and Russia:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/loomi...and-more-29143

At global level, most probably, the title is correct. For US, the worst it's basically over. The shakedown will probably continue until the soon to be installed Anointed One could be credited with the "miraculous" recovery of the US economy... but that is just cheap theater for the masses.

I believe that after so much gloom and doom, going into off topic with some musical entertainment would be OK.

Anybody likes The Kinks ?



.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

The problem is that they don't specify for whom the "Worst is yet to come".
Here is a very interesting piece on China and Russia:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/loomi...and-more-29143

At global level, most probably, the title is correct. For US, the worst it's basically over. The shakedown will probably continue until the soon to be installed Anointed One could be credited with the "miraculous" recovery of the US economy... but that is just cheap theater for the masses.

I believe that after so much gloom and doom, going into off topic with some musical entertainment would be OK.

Got this in an email today from an old right-winger.

As I reflect on 2008, I can say we had a great year:



Blacks are happy; Obama was elected.



Whites are happy, OJ is in jail.


Democrats are happy; George Bush is leaving office.


Republicans are happy: Democrats will finally quit saying George Bush stole the election.


And all of us are so happy; The election is finally over!

I think 2009 will be even better: Immediately after his inauguration, Obama will balance the budget, revive the economy, solve the real estate problem, solve the auto industry problem, solve our gas/alternative energy problem, stop the fires and mudslides in California, ban hurricanes and tornadoes, stop identity theft, reverse global warming, find Osama, solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,get rid of corruption in government and achieve world peace . Then on the 7th day, He will rest.

My best wishes for 2009

"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else."

[Supercilious]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Nah, this has nothing to do with skin color, but has everything to do with race ... the presidential race.

We are witnessing a Hope bubble based on the speculative notional value of Change... Everybody speculates on the subject of the Obama Change, and everybody has a different notion about how this Change should look. That creates artificially high hopes and every credulous individual is locked in his own bubble together with his, or hers, high hopes in the new president.

[phirang]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Yea, I wrote some "Change" calls today.

[FRED]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Yea, I wrote some "Change" calls today.

Post bubble collapse, to bail out or not to bail out? That is the question, and not a new one.

South Sea Bubble playing cards, 1720

Ladies whose husbands are undone by Bubbles,
Meet at a Tavern to Lament their Troubles,
At length they all agree upon Petition,
To Pray the State to Mend their Bad Conditions.

Three Merry Doctors meet in Consultation,
To Cure the South Sea Plague that Spoils the Nation,
But all agreed the Fools should still endure it,
Till smarting Poverty alone should cure it.

[ASH]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Nah, this has nothing to do with skin color, but has everything to do with race ... the presidential race.

We are witnessing a Hope bubble based on the speculative notional value of Change... Everybody speculates on the subject of the Obama Change, and everybody has a different notion about how this Change should look. That creates artificially high hopes and every credulous individual is locked in his own bubble together with his, or hers, high hopes in the new president.

According to CNN Money and Kitco, the contemplation of massive deficit spending is dollar-bullish.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The price of gold fell to a two-week low Monday as the U.S. dollar rallied on new details about President-elect Barack Obama's fiscal stimulus plan.

...

"It's definitely a dollar-driven event today," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal. "The size and scope of the Obama plan is being seen as dollar beneficial."

This would be the hope bubble, no?

[D-Mack]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

The problem is that they don't specify for whom the "Worst is yet to come".
Here is a very interesting piece on China and Russia:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/loomi...and-more-29143

At global level, most probably, the title is correct. For US, the worst it's basically over. The shakedown will probably continue until the soon to be installed Anointed One could be credited with the "miraculous" recovery of the US economy... but that is just cheap theater for the masses.

I believe that after so much gloom and doom, going into off topic with some musical entertainment would be OK.

Anybody likes The Kinks ?



.

I always liked the sound of "Living On a Thin Line" , but I can't find a proper video

All the stories have been told
Of kings and days of old,
But there's no England now.
All the wars that were won and lost
Somehow don't seem to matter very much anymore.
All the lies we were told,
All the lies of the people running round,
They're castles have burned.
Now I see change,
But inside we're the same as we ever were.

....

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Let's see. Obama has a stimulus plan. So we spend a whole lot of dollars. Where do the dollars come from? Well we either plainly print them or we borrow thethe future from our kids and grandkids. Either way we get a whole lot of dollars into the economy. Round and round they go but guess what? Our manufacturing sector is still not so great so a whole lot of them end up in Chinese hands in exchange for goods they manufacture. So this, at least, TENDS to increase the CAD. AND THIS IS POSITIVE FOR THE DOLLAR????? Yes I know Fred, I have to see what is going to happen not what ought to happen.

There's an old poem I used to love and it's worth a read. It's normally delivered in a flat monotone.."Life gets Teejus don't it"
http://sniff.numachi.com/pages/tiTEEJUS.html

Danged ol' mule, he must be sick.
I jabbed him in the rump with a pin on a stick
He hunched his back, but he wouldn't kick
Something ****-eyed somewhere.

The "Something ****-eyed somewhere" line is really relevant these days

From memory it was actually a "song"...a bit like modern rap:cool: Not very melodious!

Maybe it's more relevant to the likes of Jim and I than anyone else around here.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Damn the bloody censorship Fred. It's a word meaning "screwy" - a legitimate damned word!!!!!!!!!!!!
c**k-eyed

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Let's see. Obama has a stimulus plan. So we spend a whole lot of dollars. Where do the dollars come from? Well we either plainly print them or we borrow thethe future from our kids and grandkids. Either way we get a whole lot of dollars into the economy. Round and round they go but guess what? Our manufacturing sector is still not so great so a whole lot of them end up in Chinese hands in exchange for goods they manufacture. So this, at least, TENDS to increase the CAD. AND THIS IS POSITIVE FOR THE DOLLAR????? Yes I know Fred, I have to see what is going to happen not what ought to happen.

There's an old poem I used to love and it's worth a read. It's normally delivered in a flat monotone.."Life gets Teejus don't it"
http://sniff.numachi.com/pages/tiTEEJUS.html

Danged ol' mule, he must be sick.
I jabbed him in the rump with a pin on a stick
He hunched his back, but he wouldn't kick
Something kock-eyed somewhere.

The "Something kock-eyed somewhere" line is really relevant these days

From memory it was actually a "song"...a bit like modern rap:cool: Not very melodious!

Maybe it's more relevant to the likes of Jim and I than anyone else around here.

Nothing wrong with "kock-eyed," means "askew," "awry". You should edit the asterisks out of your post, and yes, Oracle, there is much kock-eyed in the USA.

EDIT: I see what you mean, Oracle to FRED.

[ASH]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

AND THIS IS POSITIVE FOR THE DOLLAR?????

The "Something ****-eyed somewhere" line is really relevant these days

This was mind-boggling to me as well. Aside from the possibility that talk of Obama's stimulus plans was actually unconnected to the dollar's recent movement, and aside from the probability that the market's reaction is simply irrational, it also occurred to me that maybe I'm not properly taking the time factor into account. A lot of market participants trade and think on a shorter time scale than I usually attempt to. To carry over an observation from the "Keynesian insanity" thread, the loss to purchasing power associated with these policies is not necessarily immediate (although I think it is inevitable). Perhaps other investors are more game to "vacuum coins in front of the steamroller", as it were, than I. Or perhaps Symbols is correct and the fix is in.

And while on the topic of inappropriately sensored words... perhaps FRED uses an algorithm to edit profanity from posts (rather than by hand), and the routine is niggardly when it comes to allowance for hyphenated words.