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  • #46
    Re: Red alert

    You're probably right, Mike. What I'm saying is that this has gone on long enough that by now I think it's fair to expect information such along the lines of:

    "For every X number of people who contract it, only Y% get sick enough to go to the hospital, and of those, Z% die."

    A statement such as this is long overdue, IMO. It makes me wonder why the prolonged news blackout?

    Last year 80,000 Americans died of the flu. It barely made a ripple in the news. So I'm keeping things in perspective.

    Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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    • #47
      Re: Red alert

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      • #48
        Re: Red alert

        A little more data is coming out now. Found this today. Take it with a grain of salt considering the source:

        https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...antine-set-end

        In a recent study, China's CCDC found that the virus's fatality rate - 14.8% - is for people aged 80 or older with co-occurring medical conditions. Young and healthy people, meanwhile, typically experience much more mild symptoms, according to the BBC. Along those same lines, the WHO confirmed on Tuesday that the virus manifests as only a minor infection in four out of five people who contract it, according to the Guardian.

        For everybody still saying that the virus is no more dangerous than the annual flu outbreak, here's some food for thought: An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11, a fatality rate of 2.3%. That's far higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu.
        If these numbers are correct, then the fatality rate of 2.3% is similar to the Spanish Flu which was approx. 2.5%.

        According to the WHO as quoted in The Guardian:

        “More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover, 14% have severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath, 5% have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure, and 2% of cases are fatal,” Tedros said in Geneva. “The risk of death increases the older you are.”
        2019-nCoV appears to have a much higher infection rate than common flu. So even if most people who catch it only experience mild symptoms, the total number of cases and therefor total number of deaths could be much larger than that of the flu.

        Thoughts, anyone?

        Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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        • #49
          Re: Red alert

          Originally posted by shiny! View Post
          A little more data is coming out now. Found this today. Take it with a grain of salt considering the source:

          If these numbers are correct, then the fatality rate of 2.3% is similar to the Spanish Flu which was approx. 2.5%.

          2019-nCoV appears to have a much higher infection rate than common flu. So even if most people who catch it only experience mild symptoms, the total number of cases and therefor total number of deaths could be much larger than that of the flu.

          Thoughts, anyone?

          I think it depends on whether there is a widespread community breakout as reinfections can be deadly even to people in their 20s and 30s even to immune over response. If there is reinfection, the fatality will be more than 2%.

          This might explain why the situation is much more severe at the epicentre city Wuhan where there is widespread infection and probably reinfections, and many doctors in their 30s and recently one only 29 years old succumbing to the virus.
          Last edited by touchring; 02-21-20, 10:23 PM.

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          • #50
            Re: Red alert

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