Saudi gets SLAPPED !

[GRG55]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

Agreed.

Xi’s Chinese Navy today seems like a right sized analog to Reagan’s 80’s US Navy 600 ship fleet goal.

I’m all for the US disengaging from direct and indirect kinetic action in the region.

But you can’t have your cake and eat it too when it comes to disengagement and maintaining the exorbitant privilege of the global reserve currency.

Shifts in bilateral and multilateral network trade volumes are going to be interesting to watch to try and determine what currency/basket/commodity/crypto emerges next, or provides the bridge to get us there.

While the US is theoretically energy independent, I suspect acting too aggressively/arrogantly/unilaterally could lead to a fair bit of pain.

I don’t think “data is the new oil” quite yet.

At least not until we have something to replace oil getting us from A to B that is affordable for folks outside of the Bay Area.

Maybe Zoom(ZM: NASDAQ) at $20 billion is a cheap hedge someday if we get $100-150 energy and/or pandemic scare again.

I’ve never traveled for work more than I do now, but I also have never used Zoom more than I do now.

UAE seem to have made some legit headway towards a post oil world someday.

But Saudi Arabia is going to have to do a lot more than just writing embarrassingly massive checks in Softbank’s Vision Fund to build a sustainable post oil future.

I am beginning to wonder if the Shah propping up the likes of Grumman(and others) in the 1970’s is being eerily repeated by Saudi’s MBS propping up tech valuations thru Softbank’s Vision Fund?

The Shah(his money) was most welcome in the US, right up until he(it) wasn’t.

Sound observations, as usual, lake. But I will gently disagree with the highlighted line above.

The picture attached to this post was taken by me in the Permian Basin of Texas last Thursday. Five of the six rigs drilling on this pad are visible (the sixth was behind me on the other side of the lease road). This operation is not being conducted by some overleveraged, private-equity-owned, independent exploration company. This is the largest US headquartered multinational. One of the other US multinationals has stated it intends to triple its production from the Permian by 2023, from development on its existing acreage. It is not possible to describe the scale of what is going on here; you really have to see it first hand.

This is what the USA is so good at. Global disruption at the intersection of cutting edge technology and the world's largest, deepest financial market. These rigs are now capable of drilling 10,000 foot horizontal sections, dynamically steering the drill bit in real time the whole way.

THIS is what has allowed the USA to apply sanctions to multiple OPEC members and forcibly remove significant oil production from Venezuela, Iran and others from world markets. Something that would have been unthinkable just a decade or two ago.

The USA was the dominant oil producing nation when it inherited the mantle of reserve currency holder from Britain. So I would question that it needs to remain as heavily militarily engaged in the Middle East as a condition of maintaining that status. I think Martin Armstrong's observation is correct - the amount of money used in trade transactions, including oil, is small compared to investment and Central Bank currency reserve flows globally. And that situation has only been amplified with the enormous growth in global liquidity at the hands of all of our Central Banks since 2008, that is concentrating in financialization of every imaginable "collectable" asset on earth - and that would include Tesla stock and Softbank fund units.

At some point support for the increasingly odious Saudi regime is going to become politically untenable in D.C. It is the Saudis that were at the centre of 9/11. It is Saudi money that represents the greater threat to the USA because of its enormous funding of terrorism. I suspect it is going to take a) a more coherent domestic energy policy, b) an acceleration in the "electrification" of the US economy, and c) a far more astute, capable, less chaotic, President and Administration, before the USA will have the political courage to pull the rug out from under the Al Saud clan (you and I both know the regime cannot survive without US & UK military support; every Saudi Prince that holds status as a "fighter pilot" is going to bail out on their private jets to the safety of the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva at the first sign of any real conflict). But I think it is coming. And I think it may be during MBS' turn at the wheel. Iran has always been the more natural ally of the USA than Saudi.

The world reserve currency will be the one that provides the avenue to the financial and physical assets with greatest legal and political security. As some of the world's most odious regimes band together to try to counter the political and military influence of the USA, I don't see the US$ being displaced from that status for a very, very long time. Even if there comes an Asian currency bloc, led by the RMB, I don't see the outflow of capital and people from that region to a safer haven stopping. It might even accelerate.

I am also not optimistic the Euro currency bloc can quickly recover from the feckless policies it has been following (for the exclusive benefit of Germany) either - chronic double digit youth unemployment across much of western Europe for years on end is not a recipe for success.

[jk]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

grg, do you think mbs could eventually become a chinese client? [ksa and china recently signed a deal that was to make ksa china's foremost supplier.]

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

Sound observations, as usual, lake. But I will gently disagree with the highlighted line below.

"But you can’t have your cake and eat it too when it comes to disengagement and maintaining the exorbitant privilege of the global reserve currency."

The picture attached to this post was taken by me in the Permian Basin of Texas last Thursday. Five of the six rigs drilling on this pad are visible (the sixth was behind me on the other side of the lease road). This operation is not being conducted by some overleveraged, private-equity-owned, independent exploration company. This is the largest US headquartered multinational. One of the other US multinationals has stated it intends to triple its production from the Permian by 2023, from development on its existing acreage. It is not possible to describe the scale of what is going on here; you really have to see it first hand.

This is what the USA is so good at. Global disruption at the intersection of cutting edge technology and the world's largest, deepest financial market. These rigs are now capable of drilling 10,000 foot horizontal sections, dynamically steering the drill bit in real time the whole way.

THIS is what has allowed the USA to apply sanctions to multiple OPEC members and forcibly remove significant oil production from Venezuela, Iran and others from world markets. Something that would have been unthinkable just a decade or two ago.

Very interesting, and thanks so much for your professional SME and personal perspective.

Is there a particular reason(s) why US energy companies are able to innovate SO consistently and decisively in the energy sector?

While I think it's pretty awesome, working in the military & tech innovation sectors and with the increasingly egalitarian nature of technology leaves me a bit sceptical.

How exactly has the US so decisively led technology innovation(value creation/capture) in the energy sector?

I see it with military and commercial software tech, but that increasing egalitarianism(including this recent cheap off the shelf-ish precision strike) is causing everyone chest pains.

How is it the energy sector appears to function differently?

The USA was the dominant oil producing nation when it inherited the mantle of reserve currency holder from Britain. So I would question that it needs to remain as heavily militarily engaged in the Middle East as a condition of maintaining that status. I think Martin Armstrong's observation is correct - the amount of money used in trade transactions, including oil, is small compared to investment and Central Bank currency reserve flows globally. And that situation has only been amplified with the enormous growth in global liquidity at the hands of all of our Central Banks since 2008, that is concentrating in financialization of every imaginable "collectable" asset on earth - and that would include Tesla stock and Softbank fund units.

Interesting. If I understand correctly it means the Beanie baby collection craze of the late 90's was actually a US dollar prop?

And GE shifting from "making everything and financing some of it" to "financing everything and making some of it" was a US dollar prop? Although GE is probably a poor example anymore.

I think I get it.....energy volume as proportion of trade transactions is in decline so should have less of an impact on universal USD utility.

However, I wonder if there will come a time when economists look at transactions like calories, with not all of them equal and many of them quite empty?

At some point support for the increasingly odious Saudi regime is going to become politically untenable in D.C. It is the Saudis that were at the centre of 9/11. It is Saudi money that represents the greater threat to the USA because of its enormous funding of terrorism. I suspect it is going to take a) a more coherent domestic energy policy, b) an acceleration in the "electrification" of the US economy, and c) a far more astute, capable, less chaotic, President and Administration, before the USA will have the political courage to pull the rug out from under the Al Saud clan (you and I both know the regime cannot survive without US & UK military support; every Saudi Prince that holds status as a "fighter pilot" is going to bail out on their private jets to the safety of the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva at the first sign of any real conflict). But I think it is coming. And I think it may be during MBS' turn at the wheel.

I've been reading and watching as much as I can about the run up to the Iranian Revolution. Some fascinating repetition going on. But I may be seeing things(confirmation bias) that aren't quite there yet.

Iran has always been the more natural ally of the USA than Saudi.

To me, it "feels" like events between US/Vietnam(interesting story about US OSS helping Ho Chi Minh write the Vietnamese Declaration of Independence, before Truman dumped him to save Europe) are being roughly mirrored with US/Iran.

Both were avoidable, until we made them unavoidable requiring 50+ years to reset.

The world reserve currency will be the one that provides the avenue to the financial and physical assets with greatest legal and political security. As some of the world's most odious regimes band together to try to counter the political and military influence of the USA, I don't see the US$ being displaced from that status for a very, very long time. Even if there comes an Asian currency bloc, led by the RMB, I don't see the outflow of capital and people from that region to a safer haven stopping. It might even accelerate.

Agreed....again it "feels" like Xi may have done some serious damage to trust in China/RMB.

I am also not optimistic the Euro currency bloc can quickly recover from the feckless policies it has been following (for the exclusive benefit of Germany) either - chronic double digit youth unemployment across much of western Europe for years on end is not a recipe for success.

It will be interesting to see US policy evolve in regards to EU as both ally and competitor as the EU would appear to be under much greater risk of influence from future Russian/Turkish energy realpolitik influence(distribution monopoly).

I reckon the debacle in Libya led by UK/France and supported by the US was an attempt to diversify energy suppliers as since proven by Ukraine.

If 10-20 years ago someone said Russia/Turkey would be BFFs, they'd be thrown in an asylum.

In some respects it kind of feels like the post WWII environment, but with far less current clarity and future visability.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

grg, do you think mbs could eventually become a chinese client? [ksa and china recently signed a deal that was to make ksa china's foremost supplier.]

I'm sure GRG will have his own response.

My thoughts on it are:

1)China kept Mugabe's Zimbabwe alive for decades and continues to do so in transition(50+ year geopolitical relationship between Mugabe's ZANLA/China).

2)China kept the Sri Lankan government alive and supported their decisive liquidation of the Tamil Tigers(Sri Lanka is part of China's geopolitical string of pearls SLOC plan).

3)China has considerable geopolitical and economic interests in keeping the Chavez/Maduro zombie regime in Venezuela alive.

Past performance is indicative of future performance.

One little known area of considerable cooperation between Saudi & China is Saudi Arabia Strategic Missile Force.

Saudi reportedly possesses up to several hundred Chinese medium range ballistic missiles, which would fit the Saudi doctrine of ordering something to happen(contractors) or just pressing a button(managed by contractors).

China is also a close ally of Pakistan.

Pakistan's nuclear program was funded with massive support from Saudi Arabia.

Many believe that if threatened sufficiently Pakistan would airlift nuclear warheads to be fitted onto Saudi's Chinese missiles as part of some nebulous security agreement between Saudi/Pakistan that better ensures regime continuity.

China could just sit back and stage manage Pakistan/Saudi analogous to what they do with North Korea for Chinese advantage.

It would also provide the top cover required for MBS to liquidate all opposition.

High level insider attacks against MBS could be an option.

Days prior to the quiet coup to topple long time China ally Mugabe, coup leader Chiwenga met in China with senior Chinese leadership.

Just my 0.02c.

[Woodsman]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

...At some point support for the increasingly odious Saudi regime is going to become politically untenable in D.C. It is the Saudis that were at the centre of 9/11. It is Saudi money that represents the greater threat to the USA because of its enormous funding of terrorism. I suspect it is going to take a) a more coherent domestic energy policy, b) an acceleration in the "electrification" of the US economy, and c) a far more astute, capable, less chaotic, President and Administration, before the USA will have the political courage to pull the rug out from under the Al Saud clan (you and I both know the regime cannot survive without US & UK military support; every Saudi Prince that holds status as a "fighter pilot" is going to bail out on their private jets to the safety of the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva at the first sign of any real conflict). But I think it is coming. And I think it may be during MBS' turn at the wheel. Iran has always been the more natural ally of the USA than Saudi.

As far as the "big picture" goes, GRG summarizes it best. And not coincidentally, the Democrat's only rational candidate left neocon Neil Cavuto a sputtering mess at the suggestion that Saudi Arabia is a bigger threat to the US than Iran on account of their complicity in 9/11.

Stepping back again to the proximate cause of these conversations, it appears that the crisis resulting from Yemeni drone and cruise missile attack on two Saudi oil installations is for now over.

The Saudis and the U.S. accuse Iran of being behind the "act of war" as Secretary of State Pompeo called it. The Saudis have bombed Yemen with U.S. made bombs since 2015. One wonders how Pompeo is calling that.

The Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi Ansarallah do not deny that their drones and cruise missiles are copies of Iranian designs. But they insist that they are built in Yemen and fired from there.

Trump sent Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to hold hands with the Saudi gangster family who call themselves royals. Pompeo of course tried to sell them more weapons. On his flight back he had an uncharacteristically dovish Q & A with reporters, saying that "[w]hile the foreign minister of Iran is threatening all-out war and to fight to the last American, we’re here to build out a coalition aimed at achieving peace and a peaceful resolution to this. "

In an earlier post on the Abqaiq attack I noted that the attacked crude oil stabilization plant in Abaqaiq had no air defense. But as it turns out, some diligent researchers have since found that there was a previously unknown Patriot air-defense unit in the area which was itself protected by several short range air-defense cannons, air defenses this analyst call "rather formidable... by 1995 standards, at least."

Some defense is better than none at all. But one Patriot system covers only 120° of the horizon. The attacking drones came from a western direction while Saudi Arabia's enemies are to its east and south. The older Patriot 2 version the Saudis have is also not of much use against low flying drones and cruise missiles.

Couple this with the fact that the fecklessly and lazy Saudis seemed to actually TURN OFF THE RADARS(!!) on the weekend and Abqaiq was attacked on the night of Friday to Saturday (which is the weekend in Saudi Arabia), I stand by my assertion that this critical facility was left undefended.

Satellites with synthetic-aperture radar can 'see' the radar of Patriot and other air-defense system. None was detected around Abqaiq.

So rather than rely on incompetent Saudi forces to do the job of defending their assets, Trump ships in more air defense systems and competent American crews to man them. Only these systems do not work much better even when manned by competent and professional soldiers.

The U.S. made Patriot system in question was built as an air defense system against fighter jets. It was later upgraded to give it some capability against ballistic missiles. But even its latest iteration is not capable of defeating smaller drones or low flying cruise missiles.

In a story noting Russia's offer to sell its air defense systems to Saudi Arabia (which clearly seems to annoy the Post editors), the authors recognize that the Patriot system can cover only one third of the horizon and fails to detect smaller low flying objects while citing a site named missiledefenseadvocacy.org - a lobby organization to promote manufacturers of U.S. air defense systems - that insists it is better than the systems Russia makes. As evidence, the site points to "at least 11 enemy missiles" shot down during the Gulf War and "a total of nine enemy tactical ballistic missiles" during the Iraq invasion.

The only problem with this is that they fudged the numbers, considering any claims on the system's effectiveness are meaningless unless one also knows the number of missiles it failed to engage. After the first Gulf war Congress investigated the issue and concluded that "There is little evidence to prove that the Patriot hit more than a few Scud missiles launched by Iraq during the Gulf War, and there are some doubts about even these engagements."

The Patriot's failure resulted in the single largest and most successful attack by Saddam Hussein's forces, resulting in the death of 28 soldiers and the wounding of another 100 at the American Army barracks in Dharan, Saudi Arabia on the night of February 25, 1991 when an American Patriot Missile battery failed to track and intercept an incoming Iraqi Scud missile.

According to a report of the General Accounting office (GAO/IMTEC-92-26), entitled "Patriot Missile Defense: Software Problem Led to System Failure at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia," the Patriot system had a systemic software problem that made them incapable of hitting the targets due to arithmetic errors resulting in an inaccurate calculation of the time since computer boot.

And while that software bug was eventually remediated, twelve years later during the war on Iraq, the Patriots failed again, hitting only nine out of more than twenty three Scuds fired by Saddam Hussein’s regime. To their credit, the Patriots did manage to shoot down two fighter jets. Only problem is that these were a US Navy F-18 Hornet off the USS Kitty Hawk and an RAF Tornado GR4 returning to its base in Kuwait.

In 2017 the Saudis fired Patriot missiles against Yemeni ballistic missiles that were launched at Riyadh. All of them failed to hit their targets.

It's rather clear that the manufacturers of the Patriot system are far better at marketing and lobbying than at building effective air defense systems. The Patriot does not work as advertised. It is one of those typical U.S. big ticket items that enrich the owners of the defense industry but are of little combat value.

The U.S. is now sending more soldiers to Saudi Arabia with more Patriot systems and additional Terminal High Attitude Area Defense, or THAAD, systems. But since neither of these can protect against drones or cruise missiles like those that were used in the attack on Abqaiq, what we are witnessing here is useless security theater by the Trump administration in an attempt to save face, avoid a ruinous war, and mollify the pampered Saudi princes.

When the U.S. attacked Syria with 105 cruise missiles, the Russian equipped Syrian army managed to shoot down 71 of them. The cruise missiles that got through were aimed at undefended targets.

The Russian base in Syria was attacked several times by swarms of drones. All were taken down by either electronic countermeasures or by short range air defense systems. The long range S-400 have not been engaged yet because no situation required their use.

What Saudi Arabia needs is a layered defense systems similar to the one Syria deploys. It requires point defense systems like Pantsyr-S1 and medium range defense systems like the BUK-2. Long range defense systems like the S-400 can be added to protect against high flying bombers and against ballistic missiles. Electronic countermeasures like the Krasuhka-4 system can be added to suppress radio commanded missiles and drones.

No western country can provide such a modern layered system. If the Saudis really want to defend their country they will have to buy the Russian kit. But the U.S. is unlikely to allow that.

That makes it more likely that the Saudis will accept the ceasefire the Yemeni Houthi have just offered to them (machine translation). We will have to wait to see how the Saudi clown prince reacts to that offer. If he rejects it the Houthi will surely remind him that his oil exporting desert country is a target rich environment.

So the crisis is over and we are back to waiting for the next round. If Saudi intransigence continues, a few days or weeks from now we will see another round of attacks on oil assets on the western side of the Persian Gulf. Iran, with the help of its friends, can play this game again and again and it will do so until the U.S. gives up and lifts the sanctions against that country.

The Houthi will continue to attack the Saudis until they end their war on Yemen and pay reparations.

As long as no U.S. forces get killed the U.S. will not hit back because Trump wants to be reelected. President Trump will not launch a military attack against Iran. Neither will the Saudis or anyone else. Iran has deterred them by explaining that any attack on Iran will be responded to by waging all out war against the U.S. and its 'allies' around the Persian Gulf.

An all out war around the Persian Gulf would drive energy prices into the stratosphere and slump the global economy. And US voters would not like that.

[GRG55]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

grg, do you think mbs could eventually become a chinese client? [ksa and china recently signed a deal that was to make ksa china's foremost supplier.]

If MBS and the Saudi regime survive (and that is anything but certain given how chronically dysfunctional a nation it remains) it will be because the Chinese prop it up, in part by exerting influence over Tehran. They desire regional stability in the Gulf. Unlike the USA, which seems to have a deliberate strategy of regional instability starting with the completely unnecessary 2003 bombing of Iraqi civilians and the subsequent deposing of Saddam, all on utterly and known false premises. WMD my azz. Anybody who watch Colin Powell at the UN that evening could tell he didn't believe any of it himself, from the body language.

If the Saudi monarchy doesn't survive (and that is what I would bet on), then the Chinese will have positioned themselves well to access the oil, given their close ties to Tehran and the fact the Eastern Province of Saudi (where most of the Saudi oil is) is predominantly Shia and will come under Iranian influence, in the same fashion as it supports Hassan Nasrallah.

It will be interesting to see US policy evolve in regards to EU as both ally and competitor as the EU would appear to be under much greater risk of influence from future Russian/Turkish energy realpolitik influence(distribution monopoly).

I reckon the debacle in Libya led by UK/France and supported by the US was an attempt to diversify energy suppliers as since proven by Ukraine.

If 10-20 years ago someone said Russia/Turkey would be BFFs, they'd be thrown in an asylum.

In some respects it kind of feels like the post WWII environment, but with far less current clarity and future visability.

The economic and political rise of China has been the greatest contributor to the support and expansion of authoritarian regimes worldwide. Your post above is descriptive of this, but we both know its merely a sliver of what has gone on. I don't see this trend changing any time soon. Even Putin has been bold enough to claim the end of Liberal democratic governance. How US policy towards the EU evolves will depend more on the EU than the USA.

As far as the "big picture" goes, GRG summarizes it best. And not coincidentally, the Democrat's only rational candidate left neocon Neil Cavuto a sputtering mess at the suggestion that Saudi Arabia is a bigger threat to the US than Iran on account of their complicity in 9/11.

I am stunned that anybody with at least one functioning brain cell tries to argue that with her. She does seem the Democrat's only rational candidate most days.

US policy in the Middle East has been a total clusterf@#& since Bush 2 and his hairbrained gang destabilized Iraq. The inevitable increase of Shia influence, led by Iran, tied together a solid regional arc from Tehran across southern Iraq, through Assad's Syria to Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. The Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is predominantly Shia, who the Sunni Saudis regard and treat as apostates. Right down to beheading the Shia imams at the least provocation.

The Arab Shia, in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, have always seen themselves as apart from the Persians; with a separate history and social values. But the Sunni Arabs are now a "common enemy", and the Americans destabilizing the region has opened the door to alliances of convenience. The Saudi Ruling Family has exerted the most influence over the region because of the size of the country, its economy and its oil wealth. But the leadership has become increasing shakey, starting with the doddering King Abdullah, and now the breathtakingly mercurial, incompetent representation of the next generation, MBS.

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss...

The Saudis have never been able to defend themselves. From anything. That's why Saddam scared the hell out everyone when what was later revealed to be his corrupt, undisciplined army went into Kuwait. Forget the Patriot missiles and such. You are correct the Americans are not going to risk too many of their own soldier's lives in a war with Iran. And they probably aren't going to risk their latest technology either. I actually do not think they believe the stakes are high enough to do that now. So it'll likely be nothing more than a "projections of force" exercise.

It's a complete, unholy mess now. And we haven't even touched on the second most important Arab country in the Middle East. Egypt.

[jk]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

we've been documenting the gradual diminution and withdrawal of american presence/power in asia, the middle east, ?europe. i wish i knew more about what's going on with chinese and russian influence in central and south america. i always thought "fortress america" would encompass the whole western hemisphere. now i'm beginning to wonder if it will just be north america.

[Woodsman]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

"BEIRUT—Saudi Arabia has moved to impose a partial cease-fire in Yemen, say people familiar with the plans, as Riyadh and the Houthi militants the kingdom is fighting try to bring an end to the four-year war that has become a front line in the broader regional clash with Iran."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-a...9?page=1&pos=1
.
.
.

"GENEVA - The United States offered to remove all sanctions on Iran in exchange for talks but Tehran has not yet accepted the offer due to the current "toxic atmosphere," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Friday."

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/US...r-talks-603147

[Woodsman]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

For the second time in a month the Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi have scored a massive victory against Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni forces surrounded and captured and killed several brigade size forces of Saudi soldiers and mercenaries.

Saudi APCs for sale - never fired from, only started once.

Much to the neocon's chagrin, it's going to be a bit of a stretch to blame this on the Iranians. But that won't stop them from trying, of course.

The Houthi media report that 2,400 fighters and several hundred vehicles were captured. The reports say that 500 Saudi soldiers were killed. This video shows the fighting. Another video shows several hundred prisoners being led away from the front. Here are additional pictures. Most of the prisoners seem to be poor men that the Saudis had hired. Only a few have complete uniforms. The events happened north of Kitaf near the Saudi Yemeni border and at least partially in the Najran region within Saudi Arabia.

Here is a report of the previous operation.

"The large-scale operation was preceded by Yemeni rocket artillery targeting Jizan airport, with 10 missiles paralyzing any movements to and from the airport, including denying the possibility of air support for the encircled troops. The Houthis also hit the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in a key operation that targeted Apache helicopters, forcing them to leave the area. Nearby military bases were also targeted so as to cut off any reinforcements and disrupt the chain of command. This led to the Saudi forces fleeing in disorganization. Images shown by the Houthis show a road in the middle of a valley on the outskirts of Najran with dozens of Saudi armored vehicles trying to flee while being attacked from both sides by Houthi RPGs together with heavy and light weapons. Visual confirmation of the debacle can be seen in the number of casualties as well as in the number of prisoners taken. Images show lines of Saudi prisoners walking under Yemeni guard towards prison camps. This is something extraordinary to behold: the Saudi army, the third largest purchaser of weapons in the world, getting comprehensively walloped by one of the poorest countries in the world. The numbers say it all: the Houthis were able to control more than 350 kilometers of Saudi territory. Given that the Saudi military budget is almost 90 billion dollars a year, this achievement is made all the more extraordinary."

After the drone attack on the critical ARAMCO oil installation the Houthi had offered a ceasefire. But Saudis only wanted a 'partial' one which the Houthi promptly rejected. A stupid move by the MbS, now made all the more foolish by these recent Houthi victories. But it seems he's not ready to accept the fact that he's lost his war. All the same, the attack on Saudi oil installation and the rout of these brigades of Saudi troops is putting an incredible amount of pressure on the Clown Prince. MbS is the Defense Minister, after all. And it was he who started the war on Yemen.

No doubt MbS is in fear for his position and life. That fear probably explains the untimely death of King Salman's personal bodyguard. The official story is that it was during a personal dispute. All too conveniently the shooter is also dead.

"I can now confirm the death of personal guard of #Saudi @KingSalman General Abdulaziz AlFaghem by gunfire. He is seen here with the king.



He was dismissed from his post just day ago which makes his death extremely suspicious. AlFegham was seen few days ago walking alone #Jeddah corniche which is not constant with his job. He doesn’t ever leave the side of the king & sleeps at the palace after the king goes to bed.I can with high certainty say that AlFegham was dismissed this month by #MBS. Details will be coming when sources are able to find info & transmit

Update: #Saudi king palace in #Jeddah is high alert & on lockdown. I know that palace & have reviewed its plans & photos from inside & had sources there since 2005 until recently. Also royal court #Riyadh is on lockdown.

AlFaghem had many secrets & had served since as personal guard of King Abduulah - from 2002- as far as we can confirm. This made him a threat to #MBS given he supervised palace guards who killed #JamalKhashoggi

I can say now, it was a political murder. The report will come out Sunday with details."

King Salman should be wary of his health. With the king removed MbS would become unassailable, or so he imagines.

First Khashoggi and now the King's bodyguard. He's a bloodthirsty son of a bitch, that one. But he's our son of a bitch. At least that's what we tell ourselves.

But since the second Bush administration, it's been harder to know who pulls whose chain. To think the United States of America has to play ball with this medieval gang of murderers, going so far as to hide their involvement in 9/11. It's humiliating.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

For the second time in a month the Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi have scored a massive victory against Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni forces surrounded and captured and killed several brigade size forces of Saudi soldiers and mercenaries.

Saudi APCs for sale - never fired from, only started once.

Much to the neocon's chagrin, it's going to be a bit of a stretch to blame this on the Iranians. But that won't stop them from trying, of course.

The Houthi media report that 2,400 fighters and several hundred vehicles were captured. The reports say that 500 Saudi soldiers were killed. This video shows the fighting. Another video shows several hundred prisoners being led away from the front. Here are additional pictures. Most of the prisoners seem to be poor men that the Saudis had hired. Only a few have complete uniforms. The events happened north of Kitaf near the Saudi Yemeni border and at least partially in the Najran region within Saudi Arabia.

Here is a report of the previous operation.



After the drone attack on the critical ARAMCO oil installation the Houthi had offered a ceasefire. But Saudis only wanted a 'partial' one which the Houthi promptly rejected. A stupid move by the MbS, now made all the more foolish by these recent Houthi victories. But it seems he's not ready to accept the fact that he's lost his war. All the same, the attack on Saudi oil installation and the rout of these brigades of Saudi troops is putting an incredible amount of pressure on the Clown Prince. MbS is the Defense Minister, after all. And it was he who started the war on Yemen.

No doubt MbS is in fear for his position and life. That fear probably explains the untimely death of King Salman's personal bodyguard. The official story is that it was during a personal dispute. All too conveniently the shooter is also dead.



King Salman should be wary of his health. With the king removed MbS would become unassailable, or so he imagines.

First Khashoggi and now the King's bodyguard. He's a bloodthirsty son of a bitch, that one. But he's our son of a bitch. At least that's what we tell ourselves.

But since the second Bush administration, it's been harder to know who pulls whose chain. To think the United States of America has to play ball with this medieval gang of murderers, going so far as to hide their involvement in 9/11. It's humiliating.

It would make sense to contain your glee, at least for now.

Propaganda/Information Operations tend to front load the juiciest photos/videos....which at first glance are overall pretty weak, here’s why:

1) Only single digit to very low double digit numbers of possible Saudi uniformed personnel

2) 2+ LAV25s, old stock Saudi National Guard kit

3) 1 M113 VADV, old stock for counter drone(obsolete/ineffective) or counter ambush

4) handful of recent build, but low end mine protected vehicles

5) a pile of dirty old AK47s, no current service Saudi small arms

6) a large number of poorly equipped, poorly conditioned military aged males lacking the dress and bearing of a military force and I’d guess most of them aren’t even Saudi citizens.

7) a technical(ubiquitous Toyota landcruiser) with an anti air cannon on the back, common usage by Africa/Arab militias.

8) a ton of Toyota landcruiser Utes and a flatbed carrying 2 generators.

If I had to hazard a guess I would estimate it to be a column of Saudi funded proxy militia with some old stock Saudi equipment with a few Saudis tagging along.

There have been FAR worse losses of Saudis early in the campaign with their much newer higher end equipment abandoned in ambush killzones.

That stretch of Yemen strongly favours the defence and the Saudis really don’t like to get their hands dirty, much preferring to pay militia/mercenaries to do the dirty work.

So I hate to break the bad news to you, but the road isn’t yet open to Mecca and Riyadh.

This doesn’t appear to even be a rounding error.

——-

Counter drone providers are certainly ramping up marketing in the last week including really solid in service tools, lousy tools, as well as very promising experimental field trialled tools.

But those don’t do much good against near peer level cruise missiles.

That requires 24/7 AWACS and tethered aerostat surveillance radar to counter beyond the radar horizon of ground based air defence systems.

Which the Saudis have, but may have been too lazy to use, or were mapped by Iranian SIGiNT.
——-

A bodyguard getting whacked is not much really

At least not compared to Faisal bib Abdulaziz Al Saud getting whacked.

Perhaps a mob clique that survived the purges will kill MBS

[Woodsman]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

It would make sense to contain your glee, at least for now.
.
.
.
So I hate to break the bad news to you, but the road isn’t yet open to Mecca and Riyadh. This doesn’t appear to even be a rounding error.

Prudent advice and valuable perspective, as always.

And yes, the idea that a terrible and pointlessly destructive war, with all its human miseries, might soon end does give me a certain joy. Not soon enough for these children, alas.

Yemen: Dozens of civilians killed in school bus attack

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

Prudent advice and valuable perspective, as always.

And yes, the idea that a terrible and pointlessly destructive war, with all its human miseries, might soon end does give me a certain joy. Not soon enough for these children, alas.

Yemen: Dozens of civilians killed in school bus attack

Yemen is funny place for a number of reasons:

1)It seems to be the most likely Normandy Beachhead in opposition to the House of Saud’s Nazi Germany.

2)Yemen has been in conflict far longer(if not as consistently) than even Afghanistan.

3)Nasser’s Egypt mired in a Yemen occupation from 62-70 led to US involvement in Vietnam being referred to as “the US’s Yemen”.

4)Back then, the House of Saud was much, much smaller and much less wealthy. But they funded a few professional UK mercenaries with a hat tip from UK government and had a “enemy of my enemy” gentleman’s agreement with the Israelis doing the same. It’s probably where the House of Saud gained their reputation for always paying others to do their dirty work, unless it’s a public execution.

5)Yemeni in-house expertise with throwing missiles around(mostly ballistic) to quite a good standard goes back to the 70’s-80’s when the oft and conveniently forgotten Soviets, East Germans, Cubans, and North Korean coalition enjoyed their foreign adventures for strategic advantage. The communist bloc was deeply entrenched in South Yemen until the very last days of communism.

The Saudis are in a very tough spot.

Look at the Bush War of the 1970’s. Rhodesia was under assault from Chinese backed ZANLA(Mugabe) and Soviet backed ZIPRA(Nkomo) operating in safe havens from Zambia and Mozambique.

The Rhodesians didn’t have the numbers(very small military) to counter the tidal waves of 2 very well and externally funded infiltrations, so they started going after the sources in safe havens.

Some of the raids were amongst the most successful and lopsided in military history, but they were too late and international pressure ensured there were too few.

The Saudis don’t have the problem of international pressure.

They don’t care due to high stakes.

But unlike the Rhodesians, Saudis don’t like getting their hands dirty unless it’s pressing a missile launch button from a position of safety.

In short, Saudi can’t prevent North Yemen(excellent defensive topography) from being used as a base to attack Saudi someday.

And Saudi can’t not try to do so.

My guess is:

The Saudis will never openly concede defeat at it puts MBS at very real risk of being deposed. It’s happened before with the Saudi mafia.

The Saudis “build a wall” at great expense and 20% off the top corruption to try to stop near future infiltration into Saudi proper. It will be of dubious value.

The Saudis try to bribe everyone internally and externally to try and paper this over. It will be gladly accepted while also signalling weakness and further pressure.

Personally, I think we are way too far down the track for MBS to try Glasnost when his only hope is Tiananmen.

MBS is talking Glasnost, but his actions are really Tiananmen.

The vital ground in Saudi is social media.

After the collapse of Qaddafi in Libya, a few articles were published about the lack of export controls on western providers of new surveillance management technology.

Israeli and Chinese tech, particularly around smartphones, is going to play a critical role in maintaining House of Saud control.

[Mega]

Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)

Ah you mean "Green Leader"