Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • thriftyandboringinohio
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    In 1929 the UK was playing the monetary role the USA is today, and the USA was playing the economic role that China is today.
    Which is the best example to give us hope we can avoid the Thucydides Trap between China and the US

    Leave a comment:


  • GRG55
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by radon View Post
    Except today they could intervene BOJ style and backstop those assets. What would have happened in 1929 if the US had a machine that could create an infinite amount of gold?...
    In 1929 the UK was playing the monetary role the USA is today, and the USA was playing the economic role that China is today.

    Leave a comment:


  • radon
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    I share this opinion.

    Leave a comment:


  • radon
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
    Actually install a sane healthcare system, and Medicaid and Medicare stop bleeding more combined per capita to cover 40% of people than other countries do to cover 100% of everyone.
    Unfortunately the inmates run the asylum https://www.athenahealth.com/insight...-administrator. Healthcare isn't the only area infected by this insanity.

    Leave a comment:


  • radon
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    I
    The last monetary reset was when the British Pound gave way to the US$ after WWI. Below a chart of the NY Fed Discount Rate from 1919 to 1930. The "Roaring Twenties" was a period of persistently low interest rates and culminated in the overpriced financial markets that broke in 1929.
    Except today they could intervene BOJ style and backstop those assets. What would have happened in 1929 if the US had a machine that could create an infinite amount of gold?

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    But who knows, maybe an utterly totalitarian and abusive government is the future for all of mankind after all?
    We are seeing this already as the government partners with tech giants to create a modern form of facism.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
    Calpers logged ~6.7% or something last year. ~7ish is doable in the good years. Crash years are something else. Occurred to me that they pulled less of public and private equity and managed ~9.6% off fixed income. Back in MA they got ~5.1%, but ~8.4% off fixed income. Odd year.
    the fixed income gains weren't coupons, they were capital gains.

    Leave a comment:


  • dcarrigg
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Calpers logged ~6.7% or something last year. ~7ish is doable in the good years. Crash years are something else. Occurred to me that they pulled less of public and private equity and managed ~9.6% off fixed income. Back in MA they got ~5.1%, but ~8.4% off fixed income. Odd year.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mega
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Meantime:-


    Also there is the little matter of the Pensions.......ALL the Pension company assumed we have rates around 6-8% ish..........they MUST all be turning red now, regardless of Stocks

    Leave a comment:


  • dcarrigg
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    anyway, jk, it's a weird moment. you catch this craziness? talk's cheap. but could you imagine the brt rejecting milton friedman's nonsense even just 5 years ago? there's something i would have bet against. surely at least some are thinking of this as a kind of sumo judo move. but the fact they're making even empty symbolic gestures is more than they've felt they had to do in a long, long time. neither cause for celebration or overconfidence. in fact, i expect things to get more insidious. only thing is, i think it's more evidence that there's one truth about this last corporate tax cut:

    Leave a comment:


  • dcarrigg
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    speaking of chris matthews, because he keeps coming up, i think maybe he's the #1 proponent of this strange idea that tip & raygun were lovey dovey political allies just because they could hang and crack a joke. anyone who knows where he came from, and knows his base, knows that's bullshit. the mule's big weakness always was that it couldn't stay cohesive. tip couldn't control the party. he whipped against the ol' tax cuts in 81. and the old southern boll weevils handed him a 40 vote defeat despite it. conyers called for his gavel over it. beaten, bloodied, and bruised, he knew he'd have about a fifth of his party caucus defect over such stuff in the future.

    Last edited by dcarrigg; 08-22-19, 08:17 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • vt
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    I remember those gas lines and 20% feds fund rates well.

    The portrayal of a feckless Carter on SNL saying: "Let's party! we'll all be millionaires! was the crowning blow on poor Jimmy.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    got be careful about what's cause and what's effect, woodsman. the inflation really dates to the guns AND butter johnson policies, way before carter, when lbj didn't want to raise taxes to pay for the vietnam war. and don't forget nixon browbeating arthur burns [nah, didn't really take browbeating] to keep real rates negative to goose the economy. and wages DID rise. ever hear of COLA's? carter was a disaster, i agree, but not because his policies caused inflation. further, it was not reagan's tax cuts that killed inflation, it was volcker's willingness to produce what was then the worst recession since the great depression by raising the fed funds rate to 20%.

    Leave a comment:


  • dcarrigg
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    idea was simply that uncle sam can raise revenue. it's an option at least. well aware you don't like that option. hell, it hasn't happened for 40 years. so i guess y'all got everything you wanted. but eventually folks are probably gonna grow tired of the same old grandpas tellin them the old yarn about a rising tide lifts all boats to paper over why giving kylie jenner millions out of the treasury benefits everyone. sorry if i took st. ronnie's name in vain. you know we all had great love for him. his better half too...

    Leave a comment:


  • Mega
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Oh Jimmy!


    I think he was trying to be Churchill like , but Churchill at lest was drunk most of the time

    Leave a comment:


  • Mega
    replied
    Re: EJ Twitter thread on yield curve inversion

    Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
    Of course I'm wasting my time and breath, so forgive this indulgence. Only I'm old enough to have lived through the Carter idiocy and have to doubt the wisdom of any proposal that looks to his tax policy as an example of what to do. Most of what I recall during the Carter Administration was a never ending stream of tax increases. The country saw increases in almost every tax, (to include, but not limited to) Income, Gas, Capital Gains, and Business taxes. I almost forgot the big one, the Windfall Profits Tax on energy companies.

    The result was double digit inflation, double digit unemployment, and triple digit gas prices, followed by shortages, rationing, and scuffles at gas station queues. Automobile prices increased 72%. New house prices went up 67%. In 1979 alone, gasoline prices increased 60%. The inflation rate went from 6.8% in 1977, to 7.6% in 1978, to 11.5% in 1979, to 12.4% in 1980. National productivity declined sharply. The unemployment rate soared. And interest rates soared. By the time Carter left office, the prime rate was 21.5%. Alas, the one thing that did not follow prices up with inflation, interest, and taxes was wages.


    Inflation is our friend!

    Carter gave us the Misery Index, so the Federal Government could tell us just how bad life was in America. It took Reagan's tax cuts to finally turn things around. The economy turned up, despite a particularly nasty recession in the wake of Carter's disastrous economic policies and the adjustments necessary to correct them, and then revenue to the Government increased. Only it was the Democratic controlled Congress who spent the surpluses and then complained about the deficits they caused, as if somehow the GOP was to blame for Carter's huge Democrat majorities in the House and Senate and their insatiable desire to spend.

    And what did Carter do by way of a mid-course correction when it was clear to everyone that the wheels had come off? Well, he went on TV on July 15, 1979 and read Chris Matthews' “Malaise Speech,” that's what. His great idea was to chastise the American people for their “crisis of confidence,” a crisis his policies created. Hell, even Walter Friggin' Mondale knew that was a loser. Oh, and then he played with the thermostats, put on a cardigan, and shut off the lights on the national Xmas tree, for ufck's sake. In the meantime, he gave away the Panama Canal and created the Gollum that would one day become Al Qaeda by funding Afghan tribesmen against the Sovs and forever committing us to the Mideast by his Carter Doctrine. And when the Iranians seized the embassy in retaliation for his hosting of the hated Shah, instead of sending in the B-52s, he sits on his hands for nearly a year. And when he finally acts it ends in utter disaster, with burning hulks of helicopters, airplanes, and dead American soldiers in the desert serving as a monument to his administration's incompetence.


    Jimmy Carter Memorial Battlefield

    We've had some dumbshites in the big house since then - Bush Junior being the worst of the bunch in terms of foreign policy, at least. But in terms of well-rounded, through and through incompetence, Jimmy Carter takes first place. It blows my mind to think anyone could look to those days and think, "you know, let's try that again."


    Ah Woodsman
    You & I must have a drink sometime...............

    Jimmy, where do I start?
    I recall during a Heat wave Jimmy switched off the air-con in the White House (Save engery/Look good in the eyes of the people), he had a dinner that night with High ranking guests from the DNC. Tip O'neil was there & Tip was a deal makers & very good at it (He made a very good Prez himself). Jimmy then told Tip his thoughts as "Dear Leader" & told Tip to get on with them.

    Tip then (in the sweatering heat) had to explain to Jimmy that this was Washington & in this Town if you want a favour you do a favour!
    Jimmy just looked at him & simply didn't get it, Tip looked at Jimmy & DID get it........Jimmy was totally out of his league & he was going to be a 1 term Prez.

    Everything went wrong, Ray-gun won the next race & strangly "Ronnie & Tip got on like a house on fire ....deals done over a Brandy late at night ...& the Air-con remained on!

    Last edited by Mega; 08-21-19, 04:02 PM.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X