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  • Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever



    Hurricane Sandy, the largest tropical system recorded in the Atlantic, strengthened as it began making the transition to a superstorm that may push a wall of water ashore in the Northeast and lash the East with wind, rain and snow.

    Drenching rains are soaking the mid-Atlantic states, 3 feet of snow may fall in the Appalachians and an 11.7-foot (3.5- meter) record-breaking storm surge may slosh over Manhattan’s Battery Park if Sandy’s most powerful punch arrives at the same time as the high tide.


    “Its circulation is enormous, it’s affecting one way or another the entire eastern third of the country,” said Rob Carolan, a meteorologist at Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire. “The storm is the largest tropical storm in the Atlantic.”

    Sandy’s winds stretch about 1,100 miles from end to end, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    As of 11 a.m. Eastern time, Sandy was 260 miles (418 kilometers) south-southeast of New York City with top winds of 90 miles per hour, up from 85 earlier, the center said in an advisory. It’s moving north-northwest at 18 mph.

    Turn Forecast

    The system is expected to begin its turn to the northwest “soon,” the center said. It’s forecast to transition into a more typical wintery storm before it comes ashore, somewhere around Cape May, New Jersey, late today or early tomorrow.

    Sandy prompted wind warnings from Ontario and Quebec to northern Georgia, according to the U.S. National Weather Service and Environment Canada. Blizzard and winter storm warnings run along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains from West Virginia to North Carolina. Gale and storm warnings touch all five Great Lakes, according to the U.S. weather service.

    “I have never seen a storm this large in regards to wind flow,” Carolan said by telephone. “So many bad things had to come together all at once. It is going to make the ‘Perfect Storm’ look small. It’s remarkable what an impact this is going to have.”
    The “Perfect Storm” struck the U.S. East Coast in October 1991. It later became the subject of a book by Sebastian Junger and a movie starring George Clooney.

    No Weakening

    Sandy’s transition won’t diminish its strength or the size of its storm surge, according to the center. Tropical systems have their strongest winds at the center, while winter storms can have their power spread out away from the core.

    “Interests are reminded not to focus on the center of the exact forecast track of this system since strong winds cover an area several hundred miles across,” Richard Pasch and John Cangialosi, hurricane specialists at the center in Miami, said in a forecast analysis.

    Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph extend 175 miles from Sandy’s center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph reach out 485 miles, according to the advisory.

    “Hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the coast between Chincoteague, Virginia, and Chatham, Massachusetts,” the center said.

    Waves of 23 feet have been reported by a buoy south of Long Island, according to the National Data Buoy Center. The buoy at the entrance of New York Harbor recorded a 15-foot wave and winds of about 40 mph.

    NYC Surge

    Tonight’s storm surge in New York’s Battery, if it hits at high tide, may top the 10.02-foot record set by Hurricane Donna in September 1960, said Sean Potter, a spokesman for the weather service in Upton, New York. It would be 2 feet higher than the surge Hurricane Irene threw ashore in August 2011.

    Normal high tides generally just top 5 feet, according to data from the U.S. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Flood stage is 6.7 feet. Storm surges may exceed 8 feet from Ocean City, Maryland to Rhode Island, according to the center.

    “It couldn’t be a worse scenario with the storm coming around with a full moon,” said Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist at Earth Networks in Germantown, Maryland. “The full moon with the high tides are going to add another 1 to 2 feet and then there is wave action on top of that.”

    As much as 3 feet of snow may fall in West Virginia.

    The hurricane center’s five-day track shows the system turning north over Pennsylvania at tropical-storm strength before weakening as it crosses into New York State, over Lake Ontario and into Canada and western Maine.

    As it passes, temperatures will drop in interior West Virginia and the Appalachians to around 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 7 Celsius) and into the 30s and 40s throughout much of the rest of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, which could lead to problems for people without power, said Rick Knabb, director of the hurricane center.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/...manhattan.html



    the prelims . . .

    Southhampton


    Bronx


    Cape May


    AC


    downtown Norfolk



  • #2
    Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

    Terrrible. But on a positive note, Federal offices in DC have shut down. It's an ill wind that blows no good.

    Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

      Originally posted by shiny! View Post
      Terrrible. But on a positive note, Federal offices in DC have shut down. It's an ill wind that blows no good.
      Ditto: A friend of mine in Tampa expects a month of work up north as a temp adjuster.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

        And the blowhards are off the campaign trail for a few days. Even they can't out blow this one.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

          Originally posted by don View Post
          Ditto: A friend of mine in Tampa expects a month of work up north as a temp adjuster.
          If I were an unemplyed carpenter I would pack my camping gear and head on down there as business could be good for a few months or so...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

            Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
            If I were an unemplyed carpenter I would pack my camping gear and head on down there as business could be good for a few months or so...


            Good business for auto mechanics and repair businesses.

            As close to "The Day Tomorrow" as it can get.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

              It looks New York wasn't prepared for the worst case scenario. A super city or a paper tiger?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                Originally posted by shiny! View Post
                Terrrible. But on a positive note, Federal offices in DC have shut down. It's an ill wind that blows no good.
                M-i-s-h on the economic effects of the storm:


                Please consider Salt Water Puts Subway 'In Jeopardy'
                Before Hurricane Sandy was expected to make landfall Monday, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority worked to seal off openings that could allow corrosive salt water to sweep into the system and incapacitate trains into the coming weekend. Still, the threat of an extended shutdown loomed over a system that carries 5.2 million passengers a day and is essential to the city's economy.

                The subway system is "in jeopardy," MTA Chairman Joseph Lhota said Monday. "Our subway system and salt water do not mix."

                The MTA closed down its entire regional network of rails and buses on Sunday evening and expect it will remain dark at least until Wednesday morning. Agency officials couldn't say how quickly the subway could be brought back into operation if the storm left the system awash in water from what were predicted to be surges as high as 11 feet. They said a timetable would depend on the amount of water that actually reached the 14 subway tunnels under the Harlem and East rivers, where the system is most exposed to catastrophic flooding.

                Klaus Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, wrote in a report last year that it could take as long as 29 days to pump out a full inundation of the tunnels.

                "You can't order a part from Westinghouse or General Electric GE that is 100 years old," Mr. Jacob said. MTA workers will have to clean and test flooded equipment, "then you cross your fingers and hope that it works," he said.
                Broken Window Fallacy Yet Again

                With every catastrophe comes some economic illiterate talking about the stimulus benefits of it all. Presumably they have not read about the Broken Window Fallacy.

                For a discussion of the broken window theory, please see Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen.

                With the broken window in mind, please consider some complete economic nonsense in the Reuters article Economy may skirt direct hit from Hurricane Sandy.
                Economists say some of the impact caused by businesses closing will be offset by reconstruction efforts, and point to catastrophic storms like Katrina, which devastated New Orleans but did not deal lasting damage to the national economy.

                Peter Morici at the University of Maryland estimates that Sandy will cause about $35 billion to $45 billion in losses and damages but then be followed by as much as $36 billion in recovery spending.
                Evan Gold, a senior vice-president at Planalytics, a Philadelphia consulting firm that advises businesses on weather-related matters, was more realistic as was Mark Zandi at Moody's.

                Zanzi estimates regional GDP is $2.5 trillion and the cost to the region is about $10 billion a day if the region's economy grinds to a halt.

                Evan Gold states "If consumers in this part of the country are spending hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars to buy things like generators, or after the storm, to do clean-up, that is likely going to cut into budgets that people might have for their holiday shopping".

                Broken windows and floods have a net economic cost, not a benefit.

                In general, it is never of economic benefit to have productive assets destroyed. It is also never of economic benefit to waste money on stimulus programs that have no realistic payback.

                Keynesian clowns still have not figured this out.

                Mike "Mish" Shedlock
                raja
                Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                  from Jim Kunstler . . .

                  With little to do while waiting for something possibly very bad to happen people tend to get jokey. That was how I felt about the election until Hurricane Sandy came along. For one thing, I happened to travel (by car - how else?) last week from Bennington through Brattleboro, Vermont, and down into a de-industrialized corner of northwestern Massachusetts. There were at least three major highway bridge re-construction projects (and many lesser ones) still underway along the route from last year's Hurricane Irene, which devastated Vermont. There's a fair chance that Vermont will get whacked again, undoing a billion dollars of work along the same mountain river roads. How demoralizing will that be? And where does the local share of the money come from?

                  I remember, too, being in Wilkes-Barre, in Eastern Pennsylvania just a few years ago and seeing that the city never actually recovered from floods induced by Hurricane Agnes in 1972, which coincided with the beginning of the end of the local coal industry. The downtown was functionally dead, with a zombie overlay of social services, wig shops, and street people conversing with themselves.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                    interactive damage map - http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datab...cidents-mapped

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                      Saltwater is pretty corrosive, and has a very nasty way of sucking itself up into any wiring with exposed ends and ruining it. Think of all the wires running thru the subway system powering it, operating lights, etc. this has the potential to be a very huge and long drawn out, expensive fix.

                      Otoh, it is possible some HFT underground feeds got ruined as well, and that would be something to rejoice over.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                        The comments on FEMA after this editorial are worth skimming...

                        http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/op...me&ref=general

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                          Originally posted by makimanos View Post
                          It looks New York wasn't prepared for the worst case scenario. A super city or a paper tiger?

                          Let me guess.

                          C1ue was their consultant - No climate change!

                          Or..... didn't we fixed climate change with the solar energy??

                          Or should Michael Bloomberg send China the bill to fix his subway?




                          Last edited by touchring; 10-30-12, 10:58 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                            Well, except that what the old outdated equipment is replaced with is unlikely to be the same thing. All the JR trains in Tokyo are one by one being replaced with trains that are roomier, lighter, have regenerative braking, and use HALF the electricity.
                            We let infrastructure in the US become so old and decrepit that it becomes a huge crisis instead of slowly and steadily replacing things. Bridges and coal trains fall down for no reason and kill people often.
                            The train system in Tokyo is more than 100 years old. Many stations are having centennial celebrations. Tokyo Station has been restored to the way it was a century ago.

                            Grand Central Station is gorgeous now, but I didnt understand why all that money was spent on appearances while the infrastructure is the same as 35 years ago. I swear i rode on the same trains on Metro North in the '70s.
                            Last edited by mooncliff; 10-31-12, 01:33 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Sandy Biggest Atlantic Storm Ever

                              London, the other global, super city is no different when it comes to subways (or the Tube as it is called here). While modernisation is happening, it's not at the pace required, a lot of the infrastructure still needs replacing.

                              And yes, they have lots of rolling stock that was introduced in the 70s.

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