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Xmas Chart of Doom

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  • Xmas Chart of Doom

    10yrBond.jpg

    Basic Tachnical analysis target of nearly 6% on the 10yr ( thats about 8% on the 30yr)

    Sorry folks, if I have this right its not good
    1) pre 2008 levels, Govt interest bearing debt was $6T
    2) post 2008 levels, govt interest bearing debt is $12T ( or will be soon)
    3) Interest rates a returning to pre 2008 levels
    4) This means the interest payments have doubled in 18 months.

    This assumes interest rates stay below 5% on the 10yr.

    The housing market was plagued with ALT A and option ARMS deals, looks like the USA Govt had the same deal, with interest payments way below true market.

    So will USA print more money to pay the interest, will the FED buy more of its own POOP. How long can that last.

    2010 will see these stresses create much volatility.

    2010 SP500 forecast : Current SP500 1140 : 2010 low range 550, high range 1300

    But of money printing goes crazy SP500 could break upto 1500 as a hedge to (potential) inflation.

    THE MAIN PLAYS FOR 2010: US Dollar and Interest Rates. Gold will take a bashing if these are strong.

    If rising interest rates cant be stopped, (say the world wont by USA 10yr paper under 6%), then a STOCK CRASH is on the cards. WHY: Why buy stocks in this credit crunch consumer dead market when you can get 6% for 10 years secured (supposedly).

    UPDATE: How would 'Bob The Builder' Pay of USA debt
    1) National GST/VAT of 5%
    2) Sell govt held assets
    3) Reduce govt costs (unlikely in Obama term)
    4) Increase taxes (on the so called rich: Done !)
    Last edited by icm63; 12-24-09, 01:20 PM.

  • #2
    Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

    Originally posted by icm63 View Post

    2010 SP500 forecast : Current SP500 1140 : 2010 low range 550, high range 1300

    But of money printing goes crazy SP500 could break upto 1500 as a hedge to (potential) inflation.
    ... but, but icm63, the above-quoted is not a prediction on the S&P500; its an historical range! :p

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    • #3
      Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

        Chris, where did you get the video of GoldmanSachs stock picking meeting, great stuff !:p

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        • #5
          Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

          Originally posted by icm63 View Post
          [ATTACH]2660[/ATTACH]
          Fred can't see the link or the image in the original post -- seems to require itulip select login? I can only see the link to the attachment when I enquoted it above -- then when I clicked on it I was made to login again.

          However, to itulip users, I would suggest using imgur and then linking to that web page or use another file sharing site.

          This has occurred previously as well with files that have been uploaded to itulip
          Last edited by Rajiv; 12-24-09, 05:28 PM.

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          • #6
            Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

            A Morgan Stanley bond chappie calling for 5.5% 10y Treasuries.
            The driver is increased supply rather than falling demand.
            It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.

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            • #7
              Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

              Thanks T...

              Re: check my facts

              There was $9T of treasuries in 2007, there are now $12T in 2009 (before the new stuff), so expect it to get $14T real quick (by 2010). Thats $5T in 3 years.

              Thats a lot of interest...

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              • #8
                Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

                Originally posted by icm63 View Post
                [ATTACH]2660[/ATTACH]

                UPDATE: How would 'Bob The Builder' Pay of USA debt
                1) National GST/VAT of 5%
                2) Sell govt held assets
                3) Reduce govt costs (unlikely in Obama term)
                4) Increase taxes (on the so called rich: Done !)
                Regarding #3. Who among the potential major party presidential nominees would really lower government costs?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

                  Originally posted by BigBagel View Post
                  Regarding #3. Who among the potential major party presidential nominees would really lower government costs?
                  Only one, though he remains unlikely.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

                    Originally posted by Ghent12 View Post
                    Only one, though he remains unlikely.

                    I pray you are wrong. That he can and is willing to make the sacrifice again. With more time he would do much better. He can count on his previous supporters for sure.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Xmas Chart of Doom

                      Originally posted by BigBagel View Post
                      Regarding #3. Who among the potential major party presidential nominees would really lower government costs?
                      My guess would be Ron Paul. I can only hope he decides to run again.

                      Comment

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