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1930's all over again? Check this out...

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  • 1930's all over again? Check this out...

    The market is defying gravity (and common sense). New "sucker's rally"? I'm out, but it's stinging me right now.....



    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry...han-expected-1
    Last edited by touhy; 09-16-09, 08:46 AM.

  • #2
    Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

    I hear you. Unemployment rising all over the world, shipping down, government debt skyrocketing -- and the market goes up.

    No doubt some of the rise is tied to Finster's observation that we are not seeing a rising market, but a declining dollar.

    I'm very interested in EJ's next major posting in which he may address what we are looking at. I did some initial puts on the market based on his S&P call -- fortunately even though they are deeply in the red, they are far enough dated out to where I'm not concerned about them -- for now.

    Still, I'd like to see where EJ's head is at before I followup with any more puts. The returns could be stupendous if they come off.

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    • #3
      Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

      It seems to me that it is case of not having confidence in our own analysis. We look and observe that the Financial industry has decoupled with reality and then act surprised when it behaves that way. What else should a dancing bear do but dance? Quit throwing it food and you will see a spoiled bear get very angry.

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      • #4
        Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

        Originally posted by touhy View Post
        The market is defying gravity (and common sense). New "sucker's rally"? I'm out, but it's stinging me right now.....



        http://www.businessinsider.com/henry...han-expected-1


        It's because the asian markets are going up, and this is pulling up the Western markets. When more jobs are outsourced to Asia, S&P profits increase.

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        • #5
          Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

          i think this is a inflation trade. with cash at 0% and dollar index in free fall, cash is not safe. Where to park wealth? Gold may reverse again
          I dont want to be a speculator. I want to save and get a real return.
          commodities might be the place. DBC seems to be bottoming.
          UNG although recently hated is low in price, if you don't like the whole rolling contracts, premium, contango thing, maybe a solid NG producer with lots of domestic gas in the ground.

          All of the s&p valuation readings are in areas I have not seen. ttm p/e is now 24; e/p vs. igrade corp yield = .94
          maybe this is why corp bonds are moving sharply higher. I track these things since 2005. Have never
          seen a more over-valued market.
          Last edited by charliebrown; 09-16-09, 01:06 PM. Reason: additions

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          • #6
            Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

            Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
            i think this is a inflation trade. with cash at 0% and dollar index in free fall, cash is not safe. Where to park wealth? Gold may reverse again
            I dont want to be a speculator. I want to save and get a real return.
            commodities might be the place. DBC seems to be bottoming.
            UNG although recently hated is low in price, if you don't like the whole rolling contracts, premium, contango thing, maybe a solid NG producer with lots of domestic gas in the ground.

            All of the s&p valuation readings are in areas I have not seen. ttm p/e is now 24; e/p vs. igrade corp yield = .94
            maybe this is why corp bonds are moving sharply higher. I track these things since 2005. Have never
            seen a more over-valued market.

            If you compare what is happening to commodities, especially oil, and the dollar for the last 6 months against the same period last year, you will find great similarities.

            There is no guaranteed real return, everything other than fixed interest deposits is speculation.
            Last edited by touchring; 09-16-09, 01:55 PM.

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            • #7
              Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

              Originally posted by touchring View Post
              There is no guaranteed real return, everything other than fixed interest deposits is speculation.
              That would be speculative too.

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              • #8
                Re: 1930's all over again? Check this out...

                certainly is too with the dollar crapping out/inflation on the horizon.
                yeah i'll lock in a long term CD at 4%.

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