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  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    President Trump: The first 100 days. From the NYT. -- Excellent Scalia 2.0. Maybe a racist like Jeff Sessions for VP. It's going to be great, if you're white, Christian and rich.

    ...possibly even family members in advising him about running the country.
    ...quickly settle on a nominee in the mold of Justice Antonin Scalia.
    ...focus mostly on rescinding Obama executive orders on immigration
    ...the wall with Mexico would be designed
    ...the immigration ban on Muslims would be in place
    ...the audit of the Federal Reserve would be underway
    ...plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act would be in motion

    ...business executives and generals are mentioned most often — in charge of cabinet agencies
    ...his voters will demand he scrap trade deals
    ...We have to take a tougher stand with foreign countries

    Donald J. Trump is now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but he is also keenly aware that many in his own party — and many Americans, frankly — are scared and anxious about the idea of him in the Oval Office. Even he is not sure how a deeply divided nation would adjust to the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.

    What he does know, however, is what he wants to do in those early months. In a series of recent interviews, he sketched out plans that include showdowns with business leaders over jobs and key roles for military generals, executives and possibly even family members in advising him about running the country.

    Shortly after the Nov. 8 election, President-elect Trump and his vice president — most likely a governor or member of Congress — would begin interviewing candidates for the open Supreme Court seat and quickly settle on a nominee in the mold of Justice Antonin Scalia.

    He would start “building a government based on relationships,” perhaps inviting the Republican leaders Paul D. Ryan and Mitch McConnell to escape the chilly Washington fall and schmooze at Mar-a-Lago over golf and two-pound lobsters.

    On Inauguration Day, he would go to a “beautiful” gala ball or two, but focus mostly on rescinding Obama executive orders on immigration and calling up corporate executives to threaten punitive measures if they shift jobs out of the United States.

    And by the end of his first 100 days as the nation’s 45th leader, the wall with Mexico would be designed, the immigration ban on Muslims would be in place, the audit of the Federal Reserve would be underway and plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act would be in motion.

    “I know people aren’t sure right now what a President Trump will be like,” he said. “But things will be fine. I’m not running for president to make things unstable for the country.”
    The New York Times interviewed Mr. Trump three times over the past two months, most recently on Saturday, as well as several campaign advisers and Trump confidants.

    The possibility of Mr. Trump in the Oval Office — an outcome that once seemed fanciful — became less remote on Tuesday night when his main challenger, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, quit the race. On Wednesday, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio said he would withdraw too.

    Despite his radical vision of how to remake America, and all his outrageous talk on juvenile subjects like his anatomy — to say nothing of the polls showing him behind Hillary Clinton — Jan. 20 may find the most underestimated politician in America assuming the presidency.

    While professing some surprise at his success, Mr. Trump increasingly sounds like a man who thinks he knows where he will be eight months from now, and the unrivaled power he will hold. He talked of turning the Oval Office into a high-powered board room, empowering military leaders over foreign affairs specialists in national security debates, and continuing to speak harshly about adversaries. He may post on Twitter less, but everyone will still know what he thinks.

    “As president, I’ll be working from the first day with my vice president and staff to make clear that America will be changing in major ways for the better,” Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview on Saturday. “We can’t afford to waste time. I want a vice president who will help me have a major impact quickly on Capitol Hill, and the message will be clear to the nation and to people abroad that the American government will be using its power differently.”

    But he also acknowledged that he might face significant and incessant protests — even thousands of demonstrators massing on the National Mall as he takes the oath of office nearby at the Capitol.

    Mr. Trump said he would try to unite Republicans and disaffected Democrats and independents over the next six months before the November election, and then work in office to show Americans that his chief interest was fighting for their needs. He argued that the fact that he would not have to rely on wealthy donors to finance his campaign would ultimately prove appealing to many voters as they realize he is not “bought and paid for.”

    “I know everyone won’t like everything I do, but I’m not running to be everyone’s favorite president,” Mr. Trump said. “Things are seriously wrong in this country. People are hurting, business is hurting. I’m running to move quickly to make big changes.”

    Several friends and allies of Mr. Trump said that “negotiating” was the word he used the most to encapsulate his first 100 days in office. He wants to put strong-willed people — business executives and generals are mentioned most often — in charge of cabinet agencies and throughout his senior staff, and direct them to negotiate deals and plans with congressional leaders and state officials, as well as insurance companies and others in the private sector. They say he will accomplish the things he has promised or else keep trying, well aware that his supporters will have his head if he does not.

    “He’s not going to depart from the agenda he’s laid out, not a bit,” said Roger Stone, a longtime adviser and confidant. Mr. Stone declined to describe details of his private conversations with Mr. Trump, except to say: “Having gone out a thousand times to say ‘I’m going to build a wall,’ he has to build a wall. He has said he would scrap trade deals; his voters will demand he scrap trade deals. He knows that.”

    Modern America has never seen anything like a Trump administration. Business leaders and even entertainment figures new to politics have been elected governors, of course, and insurgents like Newt Gingrich rose to power.

    But this is different. A Manhattan real estate developer and bombastic reality television star, Mr. Trump would be a president like no other. Yet historians suggest the country would adjust: He would quickly find himself consumed with the urgent and normalizing tasks of building a cabinet, assembling senior staff and reassuring Wall Street and the public that he was capable of governing America.

    “Trump is predicting he’ll be able to do all these things, but his workload will be pretty enormous and his power would be so limited by precedent, by the bureaucracy, by the Constitution,” said Robert Dallek, a presidential historian. “Even in trade and immigration, where Trump says he will make revolutionary changes, Congress has a say on those things. A lot of people have a say. The president is not king.”

    But Mr. Trump pledged in the interviews to deliver on his campaign promises, even if they prove disruptive or explosive.

    On his first day in office, he said, he would meet with Homeland Security officials, generals, and others — he did not mention diplomats — to take steps to seal the southern border and assign more security agents along it. He would also call the heads of companies like Pfizer, the Carrier Corporation, Ford and Nabisco and warn them that their products face 35 percent tariffs because they are moving jobs out of the country. Democrats and some Republicans have warned that financial markets would react poorly and that Mr. Trump’s protectionist stances might plunge the country into recession, but he insisted that trade is “killing the country” and “the markets would be fine.”

    “Bilateral talks with Mexico would start pretty quickly on the wall, and I would have chief executives into the Oval Office soon, too,” he said. “The Oval Office would be an amazing place to negotiate. It would command immediate respect from the other side, immediate understanding about the nation’s priorities.”

    As for which foreign leader he would call first as president, he said “they would not necessarily be a priority.”

    “We have to take a tougher stand with foreign countries,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re like the policemen of the world right now. So I wouldn’t be calling them up right away and getting more entangled.”

    For good or ill, he would command the nation’s attention unlike any modern president, and not simply because of his penchant for redecorating in gold and renaming planes and buildings after himself. (For the record, he said he had no ambitious renovation plans.)

    “His first 100 days would be riveting,” said Ari Fleischer, a former press secretary for President George W. Bush. “The question would be whether he is capable of downshifting from the hot rhetoric of his campaign to the serious business of building a presidency based on sound judgment and necessary coalition building.”

    Mr. Fleischer said it was possible that Mr. Trump would make the adjustment, given his frequent comments about negotiating with Democrats and Republicans to reach compromises.

    “That side of him intrigues me,” Mr. Fleischer said. “He keeps alluding to how well he gets along with people. It’s almost like Trump is playing a shrewd game. Tough campaigner today. Great deal maker later.” He added, “Of course, if he wins he’ll have some level of strength and momentum akin to a mandate. That would help.”

    Mr. Trump did seem aware that his early months could be consumed with trying to win confirmation for his cabinet and perhaps a new Supreme Court justice and with making appointments throughout the bureaucracy.

    He made it clear that he was not interested in delegating these tasks and that he wanted to make sure his appointees shared his governing philosophy. One of his closest advisers, his daughter Ivanka, would probably stay with his company, but he said he would seek counsel from her and her husband, the businessman Jared Kushner, and noted that family members had served in administrations before.

    Even jobs that might seem incidental in a Trump universe, like a United States ambassador to the United Nations, have apparently crossed his mind.

    “I think about a U.N. ambassador, about a secretary of defense and secretary of treasury, but I think more about winning first,” Mr. Trump said. “Otherwise I’m wasting time. I want people in those jobs who care about winning. The U.N. isn’t doing anything to end the big conflicts in the world, so you need an ambassador who would win by really shaking up the U.N.”

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  • shiny!
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by wayiwalk View Post
    I agree with the things that he and Sanders agree on - the one thing I've never heard are his views of the Wall Street crowd. I suspect he doesn't get along with them - he is definitely not part of their crowd, but he seems to be smart enough not to upset too many things.
    Trump does not like Wall Street banks. In the following interview from 2013 he said that Wall Street banks receiving free Fed money have refused to lend out it to people, but have instead invested it in the markets for their own gain. He sounds like he wants to break them up or force lending regulations on them in some way. He also discussed the possibility of a dollar collapse/reset and said he likes gold. I think he's not making these issues a large focal point in his campaign so as to not suffer even more ridicule from economic pundits, or an untimely death before he gets into office.

    He also gave his views on how to stop government waste. On Infrastructure: stop using Defense money to build infrastructure in Afghanistan where it repeatedly gets blown up; spend that money rebuilding our infrastructure instead. On jobs and trade agreements: we should have sharp businesspeople negotiating trade agreements for the benefit of the Americans, not diplomats who have been trained to be "nice"...

    I posted this interview before. Whoever put it up on Youtube inserted some annoying repeats. If you can ignore them it's pretty interesting. Trump comes across as very smart and thoughtful, not at all like a crazy egomaniac. I suspect that this is closer to the "real Trump."

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  • wayiwalk
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    My thoughts are that Trump will win the election, maybe even by a fairly wide electoral margin, but it won't feel like a mandate at all, and only his innate arrogance would considerate the win a mandate.

    If the recent protests at his events are any indication, more protests during October/November will make a victory look like part of a larger crime.

    I agree with the things that he and Sanders agree on - the one thing I've never heard are his views of the Wall Street crowd. I suspect he doesn't get along with them - he is definitely not part of their crowd, but he seems to be smart enough not to upset too many things.

    So, per someone's post above, no single presidential candidate is going to have a huge impact on the larger forces that make things sucky for us.

    Leave a comment:


  • Woodsman
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
    Jefferson and Adams roll in their graves as Trump turns the US into an Atlantic City casino.
    What do you mean "turns?" The Clintons started that job decades ago by repealing Glass-Steagall and turning the Democratic Party into a cash-only whore house. Adams and Jefferson apparently had nothing to say about it at the time.

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  • Milton Kuo
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
    Jefferson and Adams roll in their graves as Trump turns the US into an Atlantic City casino.
    The U.S. was casino-ized in the dot-com bubble, the reflationary housing/credit bubble, and now whatever the current reflation is (the reflation of the reflation).

    Leave a comment:


  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    unfortunately you can't refinance the u.s. debt. the treasury has not issued callable bonds since 1985.


    edit: just read a new thread started by poz, sounds like trump doesn't mean a refi like a mortgage refi. he means taking the u.s. through bankruptcy just like he did with a few of his businesses, playing hardball with his creditors to get them to restructure his debt.
    Jefferson and Adams roll in their graves as Trump turns the US into an Atlantic City casino.

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  • jk
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    unfortunately you can't refinance the u.s. debt. the treasury has not issued callable bonds since 1985.


    edit: just read a new thread started by poz, sounds like trump doesn't mean a refi like a mortgage refi. he means taking the u.s. through bankruptcy just like he did with a few of his businesses, playing hardball with his creditors to get them to restructure his debt.
    Last edited by jk; 05-05-16, 08:58 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Woodsman
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Agree from this present perspective that Trump would have a better time of getting his agenda through than Sanders. That said, it all depend on the mandate. If either were to get 53 to 55% of the popular vote, then meh. If we were talking more around 65%, then yeah it would be much easier for Trump or Sanders to work the Congress.

    I was asked earlier about my support for Sanders and fallback to Trump and it comes down to policy. Only Sanders and Trump are talking about rebuilding infrastructure, debt be damned in the face of deflation:

    "While at times Trump seemed to link a conversation of refinancing with a situation where “the bubble popped” — at one point even suggesting a buyback of U.S. debt — he also made clear that he wanted to refinance now, to rebuild infrastructure. When pointed out that the current Republican-led Congress has resisted calls to spend more on infrastructure, Trump said his expertise in that area could change minds."

    ‘Low-interest-rate’ Trump wants to replace Yellen, refinance U.S. debt

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  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by shiny! View Post
    A persuasive pragmatist like Trump might be more effective in getting some of Sander's vision through congress than Sanders could do himself.

    Or he could blow us all up.
    ...Thanks for the laugh shiny!...

    Leave a comment:


  • shiny!
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
    I think it's a false binary with Bernie still in the game, still raising gobs of cash, and still winning. Now that it's Trump (barring any dirty tricks) I believe the only hope for Democrats beating Donald Trump is Bernie Sanders.
    You're right about that, but I don't think Sanders can get enough delegates/super delegates to win the nomination unless Clinton gets indicted.

    If Sanders does somehow become the Dem delegate and win, I have doubts that he'll be able to push his agenda through congress. They will stonewall him. Sanders is honest and true to his values. He's an idealist. I don't know how good an idealist can be at persuasion and compromise in a corrupt, polarized political climate like Washington. Ever since earmarks were abolished, politicians have had no incentive to compromise. They won't willingly vote across party lines or against the interests of FIRE just because Sanders tells them to.

    If Trump wins, he at least has the gift of being a master persuader. When it comes to herding cats to get an agenda passed, Trump has better negotiating skills than any politician alive, including Sanders. Trump and Sanders agree on some important issues. A persuasive pragmatist like Trump might be more effective in getting some of Sander's vision through congress than Sanders could do himself.

    Or he could blow us all up.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    warren's draw is like sanders'. perhaps she would have picked up some women who voted for hillary. for a democrat to win, though, there has to be support from both educated liberals and from minorities. sanders pulled from the former but not the latter. i don't think warren would have done better on that score.

    i don't think there's any love lost between trump and cruz, so i don't think there will be a justice cruz. i certainly hope not. the only pressure to nominate cruz would come from republican senators so that they would no longer have to deal with him.

    you're right about the supreme court, and other courts too: it's is a big deal.

    Leave a comment:


  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    so at least at this level, the game is not rigged. i think the game that's rigged is the one that elizabeth warren points to re: the distribution of wealth and income and the lack of social and economic mobility in this country. i have a hunch that game will not be changed very much by whoever is the next president.
    You may have uncovered a core difference between those of us who will vote for Clinton and those who have lost enough faith in the system that they will vote for Trump. It's not that I think Clinton will be great, I think she'll be safe enough that four years from now an Elizabeth Warren type candidate will run against her. I think if Warren had run in 2016 she would have won. Those on the other side may argue that 4 years of Trump will shake the Democrats up enough that they'll encourage Warren to run and having Clinton in office will just push real change out an additional 4 years. Possibly Warren will sign on for VP but I find that prospect unlikely.

    My assessment is that we're in a time in America not unlike the 3=4 administrations before the Civil War. The country is deeply divided and we continually elect presidents who either cannot, or will not, address our core issues regarding the economic and political control wielded by global corporations. This year I'm going to have to chose between a self-centered politician and a self-centered billionaire. I'll choose the politician. Apparently many others will not.

    I know Clinton will put someone on the Supreme Court that I can live with. I also think we're only one vote shy of reversing Citizen's United. For all we know Trump just promised Cruz that seat and with a Republican Senate we'll have 40 years of Lucifer on the bench.

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  • jk
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
    I don't think any of this lot is that smart. Clinton did not even plan on working for this one. No one except Trump and Scott Adams thought Trump had a chance. When he started out he had a ceiling much below 50% of the Republican voters. He broke through that last month. Also last month 2/3 of likely voters could not see themselves voting for Trump. That will change as he pounds on the Clinton family, not Hillary, both of them, as out of touch, part of the problem, etc., etc. This election will be closer than people think. The only thing that might throw him off course is massive anti-Trump rallies by Hispanics or women. Unlike iTulip, there just aren't enough old white men to get him in the White House if he has to face continual protests. He does not do well when people are in his face.

    As others have noted, no one in the establishment wants an unknown entity in the White House and given the temperature of the electorate for "real change you can believe in", they will forgive a lot more of what he says and does than they will for HRC. As I said before, this is going to be one nasty election, but it won't be boring.
    so at least at this level, the game is not rigged. i think the game that's rigged is the one that elizabeth warren points to re: the distribution of wealth and income and the lack of social and economic mobility in this country. i have a hunch that game will not be changed very much by whoever is the next president.

    Leave a comment:


  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    do you think it was rigged for the donald to win the republican nomination? or do you think it's rigged so that it doesn't matter if the republican nominee is the donald or, say, cruz or rubio?

    or is it a different game that's rigged?
    I don't think any of this lot is that smart. Clinton did not even plan on working for this one. No one except Trump and Scott Adams thought Trump had a chance. When he started out he had a ceiling much below 50% of the Republican voters. He broke through that last month. Also last month 2/3 of likely voters could not see themselves voting for Trump. That will change as he pounds on the Clinton family, not Hillary, both of them, as out of touch, part of the problem, etc., etc. This election will be closer than people think. The only thing that might throw him off course is massive anti-Trump rallies by Hispanics or women. Unlike iTulip, there just aren't enough old white men to get him in the White House if he has to face continual protests. He does not do well when people are in his face.

    As others have noted, no one in the establishment wants an unknown entity in the White House and given the temperature of the electorate for "real change you can believe in", they will forgive a lot more of what he says and does than they will for HRC. As I said before, this is going to be one nasty election, but it won't be boring.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
    As The Donald said, the game is rigged.
    do you think it was rigged for the donald to win the republican nomination? or do you think it's rigged so that it doesn't matter if the republican nominee is the donald or, say, cruz or rubio?

    or is it a different game that's rigged?

    Leave a comment:

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