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  • Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Cruz dropped out last night and Kasich dropped out this morning. There is only one person running on the Republican side and that person will win the nomination. Trump has his make up with Megyn meeting scheduled, he's working on the kinder, gentler version of The Donald and as Scott Adams noted, HRC's team is fighting the last battle when they switched from issues to persuasion and called Trump "too risky". He's the nominee because he's too risky. He will persuade with, "she's just more of the same". He'll make sure the National Inquirer slams Hilbil, (yup, sounds like hillbilly), every week. He will paint them as an ongoing criminal enterprise.

    And what will she say to those allegations? If Trump were a standard politician like Kasich she could point to the fact that Bush / Cheney were 10X the criminals the Clintons were ever accused of being but that won't work against Trump because he'll just use it as ammo.

    Clinton is in a box of her own making. She is a career politician with all the right traditional credentials, (Wellesley, Yale, First Lady, US Senator, Presidential candidate and Secretary of State). But a majority of Americans, both left and right, want change. I would have accepted change if it were Sanders, but not Trump. It remains to be seen if I'm in the minority. The idea that Trump is unelectable because of his negatives is only correct if one thinks Trump can't change the electorate's perception.

    It's a long six months. We know Hillary's a bit boring but she's measured and resilient. We're about to find out if Trump can campaign for 6 months without a Dean Scream moment.

    It will be fascinating to watch the real campaign now that there are really only two candidates. Let the mud slinging and the search for a home north of the border begin...

  • #2
    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

    Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
    Cruz dropped out last night and Kasich dropped out this morning. There is only one person running on the Republican side and that person will win the nomination. Trump has his make up with Megyn meeting scheduled, he's working on the kinder, gentler version of The Donald and as Scott Adams noted, HRC's team is fighting the last battle when they switched from issues to persuasion and called Trump "too risky". He's the nominee because he's too risky. He will persuade with, "she's just more of the same". He'll make sure the National Inquirer slams Hilbil, (yup, sounds like hillbilly), every week. He will paint them as an ongoing criminal enterprise.

    And what will she say to those allegations? If Trump were a standard politician like Kasich she could point to the fact that Bush / Cheney were 10X the criminals the Clintons were ever accused of being but that won't work against Trump because he'll just use it as ammo.

    Clinton is in a box of her own making. She is a career politician with all the right traditional credentials, (Wellesley, Yale, First Lady, US Senator, Presidential candidate and Secretary of State). But a majority of Americans, both left and right, want change. I would have accepted change if it were Sanders, but not Trump. It remains to be seen if I'm in the minority. The idea that Trump is unelectable because of his negatives is only correct if one thinks Trump can't change the electorate's perception.

    It's a long six months. We know Hillary's a bit boring but she's measured and resilient. We're about to find out if Trump can campaign for 6 months without a Dean Scream moment.

    It will be fascinating to watch the real campaign now that there are really only two candidates. Let the mud slinging and the search for a home north of the border begin...
    I think it's a false binary with Bernie still in the game, still raising gobs of cash, and still winning. Now that it's Trump (barring any dirty tricks) I believe the only hope for Democrats beating Donald Trump is Bernie Sanders.

    Trump and Clinton are the least likable candidates fielded in American politics ever. What a contrast Sanders offers. He's honest and brings tremendous enthusiasm to new voters and he's raising more than enough money, without a super-PAC, to win the presidency. Sanders has demonstrated the ability to surpass Clinton in terms of fundraising, yet something less than 0.04% his donors have given the maximum money allowed. He experienced a greater boost in the polls than Clinton after the debates, and he's demonstrated the ability to win and win by landslides.

    National polls shows Sanders to be the much stronger contender in a general election against Trump. Sanders beats Trump 13.6 points, compared to 6.2 points for HillBill.



    And once Trump runs tens of millions of dollars of negative campaign ads that focus on the serial Clinton scandals investigated by the FBI like email-gate; millions in Wall Street cash for secret speeches; the foreign money that has been funneled to the Clinton Foundation; and the latest scandal with the hinky Hillary Victory Fund, Katie bar the door.

    When given the choice between Sanders or Clinton against Trump, both the GOP and Democratic Party elites choose Clinton, her scandals, and her record of failure. They choose her and so do the major media by their overt dismissal of Sanders and his remarkable, never anticipated success. They choose their privilege and perquisites, abandoning any pretext to principles or practicality, over an energized base of Americans championing a Sanders presidency and a future that works for all of us. That speaks volumes about the rotten corpses of both parties, not to mention the empty vessel that is HRC. It's really all I need to keep encouraging folks to support Sanders as the best candidate with the best plan until the last ballot is cast.

    That being said, better Trump wins than Hillary.
    Last edited by Woodsman; 05-04-16, 04:47 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

      I’ve listened to Trump’s speech yesterday, and in light of what’s been happening to the country for the last 20 years, most of it made sense to me.
      And given the other candidate, I will vote for Trump with both hands

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      • #4
        Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

        Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
        I think it's a false binary with Bernie still in the game...
        As The Donald said, the game is rigged. Unless you can explain how Bernie will win 88% of the remaining unpledged delegates, his chances are about as good as Bush, (the smart one...), who also raised gobs of cash.

        The "super delegates" are the likes of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Currently they'll vote 469:31 for Clinton.

        All that aside. Assume there were no super delegates. Bernie is the king of uber-low turnout caucus states. Clinton is winning the popular vote among Democrats. As long as Clinton is breathing, she's winning the primary. Who will win the general is anyone's guess.

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        • #5
          Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

          Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
          As The Donald said, the game is rigged. Unless you can explain how Bernie will win...

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          • #6
            Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

            Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
            As The Donald said, the game is rigged.
            do you think it was rigged for the donald to win the republican nomination? or do you think it's rigged so that it doesn't matter if the republican nominee is the donald or, say, cruz or rubio?

            or is it a different game that's rigged?

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            • #7
              Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

              Originally posted by jk View Post
              do you think it was rigged for the donald to win the republican nomination? or do you think it's rigged so that it doesn't matter if the republican nominee is the donald or, say, cruz or rubio?

              or is it a different game that's rigged?
              I don't think any of this lot is that smart. Clinton did not even plan on working for this one. No one except Trump and Scott Adams thought Trump had a chance. When he started out he had a ceiling much below 50% of the Republican voters. He broke through that last month. Also last month 2/3 of likely voters could not see themselves voting for Trump. That will change as he pounds on the Clinton family, not Hillary, both of them, as out of touch, part of the problem, etc., etc. This election will be closer than people think. The only thing that might throw him off course is massive anti-Trump rallies by Hispanics or women. Unlike iTulip, there just aren't enough old white men to get him in the White House if he has to face continual protests. He does not do well when people are in his face.

              As others have noted, no one in the establishment wants an unknown entity in the White House and given the temperature of the electorate for "real change you can believe in", they will forgive a lot more of what he says and does than they will for HRC. As I said before, this is going to be one nasty election, but it won't be boring.

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              • #8
                Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                I don't think any of this lot is that smart. Clinton did not even plan on working for this one. No one except Trump and Scott Adams thought Trump had a chance. When he started out he had a ceiling much below 50% of the Republican voters. He broke through that last month. Also last month 2/3 of likely voters could not see themselves voting for Trump. That will change as he pounds on the Clinton family, not Hillary, both of them, as out of touch, part of the problem, etc., etc. This election will be closer than people think. The only thing that might throw him off course is massive anti-Trump rallies by Hispanics or women. Unlike iTulip, there just aren't enough old white men to get him in the White House if he has to face continual protests. He does not do well when people are in his face.

                As others have noted, no one in the establishment wants an unknown entity in the White House and given the temperature of the electorate for "real change you can believe in", they will forgive a lot more of what he says and does than they will for HRC. As I said before, this is going to be one nasty election, but it won't be boring.
                so at least at this level, the game is not rigged. i think the game that's rigged is the one that elizabeth warren points to re: the distribution of wealth and income and the lack of social and economic mobility in this country. i have a hunch that game will not be changed very much by whoever is the next president.

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                • #9
                  Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                  Originally posted by jk View Post
                  so at least at this level, the game is not rigged. i think the game that's rigged is the one that elizabeth warren points to re: the distribution of wealth and income and the lack of social and economic mobility in this country. i have a hunch that game will not be changed very much by whoever is the next president.
                  You may have uncovered a core difference between those of us who will vote for Clinton and those who have lost enough faith in the system that they will vote for Trump. It's not that I think Clinton will be great, I think she'll be safe enough that four years from now an Elizabeth Warren type candidate will run against her. I think if Warren had run in 2016 she would have won. Those on the other side may argue that 4 years of Trump will shake the Democrats up enough that they'll encourage Warren to run and having Clinton in office will just push real change out an additional 4 years. Possibly Warren will sign on for VP but I find that prospect unlikely.

                  My assessment is that we're in a time in America not unlike the 3=4 administrations before the Civil War. The country is deeply divided and we continually elect presidents who either cannot, or will not, address our core issues regarding the economic and political control wielded by global corporations. This year I'm going to have to chose between a self-centered politician and a self-centered billionaire. I'll choose the politician. Apparently many others will not.

                  I know Clinton will put someone on the Supreme Court that I can live with. I also think we're only one vote shy of reversing Citizen's United. For all we know Trump just promised Cruz that seat and with a Republican Senate we'll have 40 years of Lucifer on the bench.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                    warren's draw is like sanders'. perhaps she would have picked up some women who voted for hillary. for a democrat to win, though, there has to be support from both educated liberals and from minorities. sanders pulled from the former but not the latter. i don't think warren would have done better on that score.

                    i don't think there's any love lost between trump and cruz, so i don't think there will be a justice cruz. i certainly hope not. the only pressure to nominate cruz would come from republican senators so that they would no longer have to deal with him.

                    you're right about the supreme court, and other courts too: it's is a big deal.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                      Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
                      I think it's a false binary with Bernie still in the game, still raising gobs of cash, and still winning. Now that it's Trump (barring any dirty tricks) I believe the only hope for Democrats beating Donald Trump is Bernie Sanders.
                      You're right about that, but I don't think Sanders can get enough delegates/super delegates to win the nomination unless Clinton gets indicted.

                      If Sanders does somehow become the Dem delegate and win, I have doubts that he'll be able to push his agenda through congress. They will stonewall him. Sanders is honest and true to his values. He's an idealist. I don't know how good an idealist can be at persuasion and compromise in a corrupt, polarized political climate like Washington. Ever since earmarks were abolished, politicians have had no incentive to compromise. They won't willingly vote across party lines or against the interests of FIRE just because Sanders tells them to.

                      If Trump wins, he at least has the gift of being a master persuader. When it comes to herding cats to get an agenda passed, Trump has better negotiating skills than any politician alive, including Sanders. Trump and Sanders agree on some important issues. A persuasive pragmatist like Trump might be more effective in getting some of Sander's vision through congress than Sanders could do himself.

                      Or he could blow us all up.

                      Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                        Originally posted by shiny! View Post
                        A persuasive pragmatist like Trump might be more effective in getting some of Sander's vision through congress than Sanders could do himself.

                        Or he could blow us all up.
                        ...Thanks for the laugh shiny!...

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                        • #13
                          Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                          Agree from this present perspective that Trump would have a better time of getting his agenda through than Sanders. That said, it all depend on the mandate. If either were to get 53 to 55% of the popular vote, then meh. If we were talking more around 65%, then yeah it would be much easier for Trump or Sanders to work the Congress.

                          I was asked earlier about my support for Sanders and fallback to Trump and it comes down to policy. Only Sanders and Trump are talking about rebuilding infrastructure, debt be damned in the face of deflation:

                          "While at times Trump seemed to link a conversation of refinancing with a situation where “the bubble popped” — at one point even suggesting a buyback of U.S. debt — he also made clear that he wanted to refinance now, to rebuild infrastructure. When pointed out that the current Republican-led Congress has resisted calls to spend more on infrastructure, Trump said his expertise in that area could change minds."

                          ‘Low-interest-rate’ Trump wants to replace Yellen, refinance U.S. debt

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                          • #14
                            Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                            unfortunately you can't refinance the u.s. debt. the treasury has not issued callable bonds since 1985.


                            edit: just read a new thread started by poz, sounds like trump doesn't mean a refi like a mortgage refi. he means taking the u.s. through bankruptcy just like he did with a few of his businesses, playing hardball with his creditors to get them to restructure his debt.
                            Last edited by jk; 05-05-16, 08:58 PM.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Trump will be the Republican nominee

                              Originally posted by jk View Post
                              unfortunately you can't refinance the u.s. debt. the treasury has not issued callable bonds since 1985.


                              edit: just read a new thread started by poz, sounds like trump doesn't mean a refi like a mortgage refi. he means taking the u.s. through bankruptcy just like he did with a few of his businesses, playing hardball with his creditors to get them to restructure his debt.
                              Jefferson and Adams roll in their graves as Trump turns the US into an Atlantic City casino.

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