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  • bill
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Two days later China inks the real deals.
    http://www.astanatimes.com/2014/12/k...eration-deals/

    Kazakhstan, China Ink $14 billion in Cooperation Deals

    By Malika Orazgaliyeva in Eurasia & World on 17 December
    ASTANA – Kazakhstan Prime Minister Karim Massimov and his Chinese counterpart, Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang approved and signed $14 billion worth of accords on Dec. 14-15 in Astana, including several cooperation agreements on nuclear energy, development of mineral resources and the use of national currencies in commercial operations.

    The National Bank of Kazakhstan and the People’s Bank of China also signed an agreement on mutual settlements in national currencies, as well as an agreement on currency swaps of Kazakh tenge and Chinese yuan. This agreement will promote local currency settlement and enhance both countries’ immunity to financial risks and global competitiveness.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by icm63 View Post
    russia can engage in currency swaps with china. how do you think they'll calculate the exchange rate for those swaps?

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    if i'm not mistaken, kazhakstan can't get its energy resources out except through russia or irna, or a proposed new pipeline to china. a think this reality on the ground is more significant than any statements about mutual amity.


    Oil and gasKazakhstan has the second largest oil and gas reserves in the region, behind Russia. Its oil production has more than doubled since 1999 and the government hopes to triple this by 2015.
    The 2001 opening of a pipeline from western Kazakhstan to the Black Sea helped raise export levels. A pipeline to China is now being built.
    Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have substantial gas reserves, but lack of pipeline capacity limits exports.
    Major export markets are Russia (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) and the Ukraine and Iran (Turkmenistan).

    Leave a comment:


  • bill
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Mr Erlan Idrissov, Kazakhstan Foreign Minister shaking hands in Washington.

    http://www.astanatimes.com/2014/12/f...s-partnership/

    FM Idrissov’s Visit to Washington Solidifies Kazakhstan-U.S. Partnership

    By Altair Nurbekov & Danna Bupezhanova in Eurasia & World on 16 December
    WASHINGTON, DC – Kazakhstan Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov visited the United States on Dec. 10-11 to meet with top American officials to advance bilateral relations and discuss challenges on the global agenda.
    On Dec. 10, Idrissov and Secretary of State John Kerry co-chaired the third annual meeting of the bilateral Strategic Partnership Dialogue, which covered a broad range of issues of Kazakhstan-U.S. cooperation.
    “I am very proud that today we will have the third meeting of our Strategic Partnership Dialogue with Secretary Kerry and I coming here to confirm our strong desire to further cement the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States and take it to the future,” stated Idrissov prior to a Dec. 10 meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.


    During the talks, Kerry commended the gradually-developing strategic partnership between the countries and balanced foreign policy of Kazakhstan. He confirmed U.S. support for Kazakh initiatives, including participation in the international exhibition EXPO 2017, as well as promoting Kazakhstan’s accession to the WTO.
    Idrissov underlined that in the context of regional security, Astana was committed to Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy and called for all international actors to move past the “big game” approach and adopt the “big gain” approach to benefit all involved.


    A joint statement was adopted at the end of the meeting. The document outlined Kazakh and U.S. positions on a number of issues, including partnerships on global issues, non-proliferation, democracy, human rights and development, trade, investment and energy, Afghanistan and regional integration, cooperation on security and law enforcement, military cooperation, education, partnerships in science and technology, humanitarian aid and development assistance and EXPO 2017.
    During the visit, Idrissov also held a series of meetings with officials from the U.S. National Security Council, Department of Energy and Department of Commerce.
    At a White House meeting with U.S. National SecurityAdvisorSusan Rice, the two touched upon strengthening regional stabilityand sustainable development. Riceemphasised thepositive roleof Kazakhstanin expandingeconomic activity andstrengthening cooperation in theCentral Asian region.
    At a meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Bruce Andrews and Deputy Secretary of Energy Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the parties discussed further intensification of trade and investment and energy cooperation. In particular, Andrews confirmed U.S. interest in cooperation to increase the investment attractiveness of Kazakhstan and expand the presence of American business in the state. He stated that proposed large-scale infrastructure projects in accordance with the new Nurly Zhol economic policy announced by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev were a testament to the strategic vision of Kazakhstan’s President and were very positively perceived by American business.

    Idrissov and Sherwood-Randall stressed the importance of the bilateral energy commission, which covered a wide range of issues from oil and nuclear power to renewable energy sources. The parties emphasised the importance of the timely completion of the negotiations and signing of an agreement between Kazakhstan and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the establishment of a low-enriched uranium fuel bank.

    In his remarks, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Richard E. Hoagland commended Kazakhstan’s leading role in the nonproliferation movement. He stressed that “Kazakhstan has been, and continues to be, a leader in this [nonproliferation and arms control] field, both seen in past efforts such as Project Sapphire and the relinquishing of their nuclear arsenal, as well as in current efforts, including establishing a regional Nuclear Security Training centere and offering to host the IAEA low-enriched uranium fuel bank.

    Former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, one of the keynote speakers, stated that Kazakhstan played an important role in the region

    DeputyAdministrator for National Nuclear Security Administration Anne Harrington and former Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel Poneman elaborated on the historical importance of Kazakh-U.S. cooperation


    Andrew Kuchins, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, emphasised Kazakhstan’s key role in the development of transport corridors and transcontinental trade relations in Eurasia, calling the nation “an important partner” for the development of the New Silk Road.

    The Kazakhstan foreign minister also participated in the roundtable organised by the U.S.-Kazakhstan Business Association on Dec.11. The event was attended by such companies as AES Corporation, AGCO, Bechtel, Boeing, Cashman Equipment Corp., Chevron Corporation, Deere & Company, Eli Lilly, Fluor Corporation, Inc. and others.


    US businessmen expressed interest in expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan in light of the implementation of the Nurly Zhol policy, forthcoming accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), preparations for the international specialised exhibition EXPO 2017 and entry into force of the treaty on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on Jan.1, 2015.

    Leave a comment:


  • doom&gloom
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by icm63 View Post
    As the US steps up it's 'war on Russia', will China also step up to help Russia further as well?

    I for one see this entire anti-Russia gambit as muc more risky than the potential rewards...

    Leave a comment:


  • doom&gloom
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
    Bingo. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

    Coming to your own country .... whenever needed.
    Just following the US playbook...

    Leave a comment:


  • icm63
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    CHINA to support RUSSIA

    here ; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...bailout-russia

    Leave a comment:


  • astonas
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    Like everyone else I'm trying to logic-out recent events and square the data with the information I am getting from various personal connections.
    Thank you for sharing your thought process with us! The information you've provided suggests that while Russia isn't an economic giant, it also won't easily be compelled to roll over under an economic attack.

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    If Russia can engineer a $2000 gold price then it's $418.8B in FX reserves will jump to $436.5 even if the current rate of outflows continues.
    Wouldn't it be vastly easier for the US and Europe to engineer the gold price than for Russia to have a significant influence on it? I've been assuming that the west's control over gold is considerably greater than its influence over oil, when it comes to acting as a cartel. Am I mistaken in this?

    Leave a comment:


  • vinoveri
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by ProdigyofZen View Post
    When capital markets don't cooperate just change the rules. Russia virtually suspends all mark to market and any bank/trading losses until "who knows when."
    .
    Bingo. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

    Coming to your own country .... whenever needed.

    Leave a comment:


  • thriftyandboringinohio
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    ...If Russia can engineer a $2000 gold price then it's $418.8B in FX reserves will jump to $436.5 even if the current rate of outflows continues.
    Now that is an interesting sentence.

    Leave a comment:


  • EJ
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by astonas View Post
    Might this be wishful thinking?

    The main concern I'd have regarding this hypothesis is that Putin hasn't really been relying very heavily on an economic message to cement his political strength. He has learned that the trick is to play identity politics, including very heavy plays on both nationalism and religious furor.

    As long as he can credibly point to an external force as the bad guy for the economic distress -- something that he is already doing with vigor -- a declining economy will strengthen, not weaken, him politically. His control over the media is certainly complete enough to make this fly.

    To be sure, this is all only valid up to a point. But I wouldn't characterize the Russian people as having a particularly delicate constitution when it comes to suffering. That point is still very far away.

    The only way I could see him being deposed is if an oligarch were hatching a particularly brilliant plot against him. But Putin has for some time been quite efficient at purging anyone with a chance to do so. When it comes to controlling the twin spigots of power, pride and fear, Putin has established himself to be a master.

    It is always possible that you are seeing something that I am missing. If so, I'd like to learn more.
    Like everyone else I'm trying to logic-out recent events and square the data with the information I am getting from various personal connections.

    For now the latest measures by the Bank of Russia appear to be working to halt the ruble collapse.

    While western news coverage of Russia is of crisis and calamity, the data appear to show the central bank managing events effectively, considering the effect of low oil prices on the nation's trade balance, fiscal position, and fx position. On the latter, FX reserves have declined 19% over the past year. That's a lot but not catastrophic.



    Gold has increased from 8% to 11% of FX reserves in 2014.

    Three relevant stats:

    $42,009,600,000 Gold FX @ $1200
    $678,000,000,000 External Debt
    -19,462,000,000 Cap Flows (annualized Q3 2014)





    If Russia can engineer a $2000 gold price then it's $418.8B in FX reserves will jump to $436.5 even if the current rate of outflows continues.

    Leave a comment:


  • ProdigyofZen
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    When capital markets don't cooperate just change the rules. Russia virtually suspends all mark to market and any bank/trading losses until "who knows when."

    The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
    On measures of the Bank of Russia to maintain the stability of the Russian financial sector
    1. The Bank of Russia will introduce a temporary moratorium on the recognition of the negative revaluation of securities portfolios of credit institutions and non-credit financial institutions, which will reduce the sensitivity of market participants to market risk.
    2. To limit the impact of the revaluation of foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities on prudential requirements of credit institutions, the Bank of Russia plans to provide credit institutions temporary right to use in the calculation of prudential requirements on transactions in foreign currency rate calculated in the previous quarter.
    3. The Bank of Russia will improve the mechanism of credit institutions in foreign currency. Within the framework of a currency Repo planned additional auctions for various periods of time if necessary. As part of the mechanism for providing loans to credit institutions secured by non-marketable assets (according to the Regulation number 312-P), is scheduled to begin providing loans to banks in foreign currency, secured credit claims in foreign currency to non-financial organizations.
    4. The Bank of Russia considers the central counterparty on the Moscow Stock Exchange as an important institution for centralized distribution of liquidity among all financial market participants - both credit and non-credit financial institutions. To ensure the sustainability of the stock market for the Bank of Russia, if necessary, will provide support to the central counterparty on the Moscow Stock Exchange, market participants have confidence in the reliability of centralized clearing and continuity of its functions.
    5. To empower Interest Rate Risk Management The Bank of Russia plans to:




    - Temporary (up to 07.01.2015) not to apply the restriction values of the total cost of consumer credit (loan) at the conclusion of credit and microfinance institutions in consumer contracts (loan);

    - Increase the range of the standard deviation of market interest rates on deposits in banks from the estimated average market interest rate to a maximum of 3.5 percentage points (instead of 2 percentage points at the moment).
    6. To enhance the management of credit risks, the Bank of Russia intends to:




    - To give credit institutions an opportunity not to impair the quality assessment of debt service, regardless of the assessment of the financial position of the borrower on loans restructured, for example, in the case of changes in the currency in which the loan is denominated, regardless of changes in the maturity of the loan (principal and (or) percent ), the interest rate;

    - To give credit institutions an opportunity to make a decision on non-worsening assessment of the financial position of the borrower for the purpose of provision for losses if the changes in financial position due to the action imposed by individual foreign countries restrictive economic and (or) policy measures (Annex to the letter of the Bank of Russia from 21.10.2014 ? 184 -T);

    - To increase the period during which the credit institution has the right not to increase the size Actual provision of loans to borrowers, financial position, and (or) quality of debt service, and (or) as collateral for loans has deteriorated as a result of an emergency, from 1 year to 2 years.

    - To increase the period during which a credit institution can not form a provision for possible losses on loans for investment projects, while maintaining other existing minimum reserve requirements set depending on the number of years, the lack of payments on investment loans or entering the minor size;

    - To cancel the increased rate risk with respect to loans to leasing and factoring companies - participants of the banking group, which includes the lending bank;

    - Introduce a reduced weighting factor of risk for the ruble-denominated loans to Russian exporters under an insurance contract EXIAR (Export Insurance Agency of Russia).
    7. In order to maintain the stability of the banking sector in the face of increased interest rate and credit risks of a slowdown of the Russian economy the Bank of Russia and the Government of the Russian Federation prepare measures to recapitalize credit institutions in 2015.

    Leave a comment:


  • astonas
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    What if the goal isn't punish Putin for his policies in Syria and Ukraine but to get him deposed by completely wrecking the Russian economy?

    A risky gambit to be sure, but it worked once before.
    Might this be wishful thinking?

    The main concern I'd have regarding this hypothesis is that Putin hasn't really been relying very heavily on an economic message to cement his political strength. He has learned that the trick is to play identity politics, including very heavy plays on both nationalism and religious furor.

    As long as he can credibly point to an external force as the bad guy for the economic distress -- something that he is already doing with vigor -- a declining economy will strengthen, not weaken, him politically. His control over the media is certainly complete enough to make this fly.

    To be sure, this is all only valid up to a point. But I wouldn't characterize the Russian people as having a particularly delicate constitution when it comes to suffering. That point is still very far away.

    The only way I could see him being deposed is if an oligarch were hatching a particularly brilliant plot against him. But Putin has for some time been quite efficient at purging anyone with a chance to do so. When it comes to controlling the twin spigots of power, pride and fear, Putin has established himself to be a master.

    It is always possible that you are seeing something that I am missing. If so, I'd like to learn more.

    Leave a comment:


  • bill
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    Larry Summers ran the campaign to divide the spoils after the collapse of the Soviet empire.

    Who's in charge this time?
    From whom did Larry Summers get his plan of action?
    Stanley Fischer


    http://www.cfr.org/financial-regulat...ability/p33857

    Leave a comment:


  • icm63
    replied
    Re: Question about the origin of a specific E.J. quote

    Putin would be plain stupid to act alone to rattle the $USD system.

    Surely, he is acting as the PUBLIC 'sharp end of the sword' for the BRICS nation view of the world.

    So I guess we shall see if Brazil, India, China, South Africa stand side by side with Russia in this fight!

    Or will it be divided we shall fall.

    Leave a comment:

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