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U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

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  • #61
    Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Americans don't move because

    1. They have no concept of non-US places existing

    2. Moving inside the US only levels out the unemployment rate so much

    3. Americans lost the concept of immigrating after WWII

    4. The French don't typically move out of the Hexagon either

    5. Much like the USSR, the US is a beyond totally corrupt regime that does not really permit people to move

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    • #62
      Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

      I don't think it will be possible to make it up to 20% U3. It only takes a year for workers to become 'discouraged' in the calculation of unemployment. This means if we end up having an L shaped depression, actual unemployment could be sky high with U3 still in the low teens.

      One thing is for sure, more and more people will begin to disbelieve the government numbers of unemployment. If we want to measure the economy going forward, I think the only truthful method left is to monitor tax receipts. All the other government statistics and surveys are subject to manipulation and political pressure to fudge them.

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      • #63
        Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

        Originally posted by highcastle View Post
        I don't think it will be possible to make it up to 20% U3. It only takes a year for workers to become 'discouraged' in the calculation of unemployment. This means if we end up having an L shaped depression, actual unemployment could be sky high with U3 still in the low teens.

        One thing is for sure, more and more people will begin to disbelieve the government numbers of unemployment. If we want to measure the economy going forward, I think the only truthful method left is to monitor tax receipts. All the other government statistics and surveys are subject to manipulation and political pressure to fudge them.
        We agree with this assessment. The number that the government watches most carefully is the number unemployed for 26 weeks or longer. After that, Federal unemployment runs out and state funds are tapped. After one year, all unemployment funds are tapped and the unemployed are without income. On average, unemployment insurances pays 38% of previous income.

        Here's the update to our monthly U.S. unemployment graph for April 2009 from the BLS. The rate of increase in unemployment remains in the range of 1.1 to 40% for every state except North Dakota where unemployment is rising at an annual rate of 0.6% to 1%.


        Ed.

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        • #64
          Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

          One thing is for sure, more and more people will begin to disbelieve the government numbers of unemployment. If we want to measure the economy going forward, I think the only truthful method left is to monitor tax receipts. All the other government statistics and surveys are subject to manipulation and political pressure to fudge them.[/quote]

          I agree highcastle, here are recent stats for AZ:

          April tax collections the worst since 1996.

          Personal income tax: Down 26% in first 10 months of this fiscal year compared to first ten months of previous fiscal year

          Sales tax: Down 13%

          Corporate income tax: Down 26.5%

          Expected deficit now $3 billion in coming fiscal year (beginning July 1)

          Don't think anyone there believes things are getting better.

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          • #65
            Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

            Originally posted by highcastle View Post
            If we want to measure the economy going forward, I think the only truthful method left is to monitor tax receipts. All the other government statistics and surveys are subject to manipulation and political pressure to fudge them.
            Shhh!! Quiet!! Don't give the feds any ideas.
            Most folks are good; a few aren't.

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            • #66
              Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

              Interesting about North Dakota. Could Ellen Brown just be right?

              CASH-STARVED STATES NEED TO PLAY THE BANKING GAME:
              NORTH DAKOTA SHOWS HOW


              TURNING THE TABLES ON WALL STREET:
              NORTH DAKOTA SHOWS CASH-STARVED STATES HOW THEY CAN CREATE THEIR OWN CREDIT


              BUT GOVERNOR, YOU CAN CREATE MONEY! JUST FORM YOUR OWN BANK.

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              • #67
                Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                Ellen does not understand the FIRE Economy. She says:

                Today we are in a dangerous deflationary spiral, as lending has dried up and asset values have plummeted.
                Without an understanding of the FIRE Economy, asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy is confused with commodity price inflation and deflation in the Production Economy.

                Deflation spiral in asset prices such as houses, yes. But deflation spiral in oil? Gold? Stocks?

                Not quite.
                Ed.

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                • #68
                  Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                  Originally posted by FRED View Post
                  Ellen does not understand the FIRE Economy.
                  .
                  .
                  .
                  Without an understanding of the FIRE Economy, asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy is confused with commodity price inflation and deflation in the Production Economy.

                  Deflation spiral in asset prices such as houses, yes. But deflation spiral in oil? Gold? Stocks?

                  Not quite.
                  In a personal communication, Ellen responded:

                  My point is that there is much less money available now than there used to be. This is because the "shadow lenders" went away and aren't coming back. They financed 40% of the housing market. So even if banks were fully loaned up, the market would still have only 60% of the funding it used to have.

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                  • #69
                    Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                    Some perspective - credit is approaching zero growth, but credit plus gov't debt is still expanding at over 4%.






                    http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

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                    • #70
                      Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                      Steel utilization is a great metric...

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                      • #71
                        Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                        Originally posted by phirang View Post
                        Steel utilization is a great metric...
                        electricity consumption, also.

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                        • #72
                          Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                          Test of new post under vB 4.1.9.
                          Ed.

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                          • #73
                            Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

                            Originally posted by metalman View Post
                            electricity consumption, also.

                            http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

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