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Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

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  • Re: Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

    Originally posted by FRED View Post
    When this process is over we will have learned how much GDP growth since 1980 was FIRE Economy (debt based) and how much was real (productivity based).
    Though I feel a little queasy nitpicking the Tulip Masters , I choose not to let that stop me.

    I doubt that we will actually learn how much growth was real when this is over, for the reason that the ravages of a disease usually overshoot on the downside, taking out what would otherwise have been healthy tissue were it not for the disease.

    Thus we will only have a lower bound estimate on how much was real.
    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

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    • Re: Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

      Here are some alternate takes on how much of the growth was real.
      Same data and corrections, just different charting methods.







      http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

      Comment


      • Re: Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

        Originally posted by bart View Post
        Here are some alternate takes on how much of the growth was real.
        Same data and corrections, just different charting methods.
        That helps. Thanks, Bart.

        Now I realize that Fred's mention of "what was real" could have had the particular meaning of "the inflation adjusted growth." as opposed to "the nominal growth."

        For what little I know, the following might all be different values:
        1. The nominal growth that did occur.
        2. The inflation adjusted growth that did occur.
        3. What productivity would have been, had there been no bubble.
        4. What productivity will be, when this crash is over.

        I had been presuming that Fred was referring to (3). Your alternative takes display (1) and (2).

        Value (3) is a particularly slippery concept. Not only will we never know the actual value, I doubt we can even come to a concensus on just what it means. It's too hypothetical.

        ... eh nevermind ... this post is getting harder to read than is worth the effort ... I'd better quit writing.
        Most folks are good; a few aren't.

        Comment


        • Re: Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

          With respect to the role of the FIRE economy on GDP figures, I found this to be rather telling ..


          Comment


          • Re: Major US banks worse than Japan's zombies?

            Well, since everyone is posting numbers that imply were going back to the future to about 1998, might as well look at some employment numbers.



            ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
            HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

            B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by major industry sector, 1958 to date

            (In thousands)



            service- transpor- Infor- Financial Professional Education Leisure Other Govern

            Annual Averages


            1970...... 71,006 58,318 22,179 677 3,654 17,848
            1971...... 71,335 58,323 21,602 658 3,770 17,174
            1972...... 73,798 60,333 22,299 672 3,957 17,669
            1973...... 76,912 63,050 23,450 693 4,167 18,589
            1974...... 78,389 64,086 23,364 755 4,095 18,514
            1975...... 77,069 62,250 21,318 802 3,608 16,909
            1976...... 79,502 64,501 22,025 832 3,662 17,531
            1977...... 82,593 67,334 22,972 865 3,940 18,167
            1978...... 86,826 71,014 24,156 902 4,322 18,932
            1979...... 89,932 73,864 24,997 1,008 4,562 19,426

            1980...... 90,528 74,154 24,263 1,077 4,454 18,733
            1981...... 91,289 75,109 24,118 1,180 4,304 18,634
            1982...... 89,677 73,695 22,550 1,163 4,024 17,363
            1983...... 90,280 74,269 22,110 997 4,065 17,048
            1984...... 94,530 78,371 23,435 1,014 4,501 17,920
            1985...... 97,511 80,978 23,585 974 4,793 17,819
            1986...... 99,474 82,636 23,318 829 4,937 17,552
            1987...... 102,088 84,932 23,470 771 5,090 17,609
            1988...... 105,345 87,806 23,909 770 5,233 17,906
            1989...... 108,014 90,087 24,045 750 5,309 17,985

            1990...... 109,487 91,072 23,723 765 5,263 17,695
            1991...... 108,375 89,829 22,588 739 4,780 17,068
            1992...... 108,726 89,940 22,095 689 4,608 16,799
            1993...... 110,844 91,855 22,219 666 4,779 16,774
            1994...... 114,291 95,016 22,774 659 5,095 17,020
            1995...... 117,298 97,865 23,156 641 5,274 17,241
            1996...... 119,708 100,169 23,409 637 5,536 17,237
            1997...... 122,776 103,113 23,886 654 5,813 17,419
            1998...... 125,930 106,021 24,354 645 6,149 17,560
            1999...... 128,993 108,686 24,465 598 6,545 17,322

            2000...... 131,785 110,995 24,649 599 6,787 17,263
            2001...... 131,826 110,708 23,873 606 6,826 16,441
            2002...... 130,341 108,828 22,557 583 6,716 15,259
            2003...... 129,999 108,416 21,816 572 6,735 14,510
            2004...... 131,435 109,814 21,882 591 6,976 14,315
            2005...... 133,703 111,899 22,190 628 7,336 14,226
            2006...... 136,086 114,113 22,531 684 7,691 14,155
            2007...... 137,623 115,420 22,221

            Monthly data, seasonally adjusted

            2007
            November.... 138,037 115,759 22,049 735 7,520 13,794
            December.... 138,078 115,745 21,976 739 7,465 13,772
            2008
            January..... 138,002 115,666 21,907 744 7,426 13,737
            February.... 137,919 115,557 21,816 744 7,382 13,690
            March....... 137,831 115,454 21,737 750 7,343 13,644
            April....... 137,764 115,363 21,628 752 7,284 13,592
            May......... 137,717 115,264 21,577 760 7,246 13,571
            June........ 137,617 115,154 21,491 768 7,196 13,527
            July........ 137,550 115,048 21,437 777 7,173 13,487
            August...... 137,423 114,909 21,367 788 7,153 13,426
            September... 137,020 114,525 21,250 795 7,098 13,357
            October(p).. 136,700 114,163 21,083 796 7,034 13,253
            November(p). 136,167 113,623 20,920 800 6,952 13,168


            If we reset to 1998, we're looking at a peak to trough loss of about 13 million jobs. With some overshoot, 15-20 million. Pretty much in line with iTulip projections.

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