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DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

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  • DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

    DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

    The following two sets of charts compare our March 2006 and December 2007 forecasts with November 2008 actuals.

    March 2006 we forecast the DJIA to revert to an inflation-adjusted mean 50% or more lower than current levels. December 2007 we forecast a 40% decline in 2008.

    Friday we'll tell you how we did it and what we think it means.


    Chart above shows iTulip reversion to the inflation-adjusted mean forecasts (yellow lines) March 2006
    1. Worst cast
    2. Moderate case
    3. Best cast


    Actual Nov. 2008: Worse than our 2006 worst case forecast. Call it:
    0. Worst, worse case


    Chart above shows iTulip forecast Dec. 27, 2007 for the US stock market in 2008 (Debt Deflation Bear Market $ubscriber)


    Same chart updated for the stock market today, Nov. 19, 2008

    So much for efficient markets.

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    Last edited by FRED; 11-20-08, 09:25 AM.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

    So much for efficient markets.

    Well, efficient at taking almost everyone's money, at least.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

      Me Thinks the labeling is the wrong way round!

      1. Should be the best case. GM & Ford etc going bankrupt.

      3. Worst Case. Said companies being bailed out.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

        Where I work today we had a 401k educational meeting with some outside financial consultants. I decided I better not attend for fear of yelling at them. One of my friends came back and described it as "the 401k brainwashing session". They kept repeating the mantra that the market is going to bounce back, and urging everyone to stay in. And something about "if you miss the 10 best days of the rebound you could really hurt your total investment". Yeah, how about that 40% hurt in the past year?

        I figure this is the kind of advice people are getting across the country unless they've been proactive enough to dig deeper and find sites like iTulip.

        Comment

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