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Are You a Doomer?

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  • #31
    Re: Are You a Doomer?


    • #32
      Re: Are You a Doomer?

      Where can one find EJ's recommendation last November to get into cash and gold.
      Paul Maxon


      • #33
        Re: Are You a Doomer?

        Originally posted by pqmaxon View Post
        Where can one find EJ's recommendation last November to get into cash and gold.
        Paul Maxon
        iTulip made the case to get into gold August 2001 and has yet to issue a "sell" opinion: Questioning Fashionable Financial Advice
        Gold - September 2001

        Other than gold, the only other investment position that iTulip has taken over the years are Treasury bonds via Treasury Direct, also mentioned in the August 2001 article about gold, and CDs.

        iTulip has not recommended any stock market exposure since iTulip was founded in Nov. 1998.

        See also:

        Time, at last, to short the market
        Time at last to short commercial real estate
        Last edited by FRED; 12-05-08, 12:44 AM.


        • #34
          Great Article/nuclear war

          Great article, EJ.

          The better doomers are not "wrong" just premature. In fact, if Volcker is correct, Brown came near to being right in the timing, as well.

          Nuclear war was a real danger. Didn't happen, but you'd be crazy not to think it was a risk. New information about the Cuban missile crisis shows how close we came. If the Soviet sub commander had not turned back, we might well have tested the duck and cover empirically.
          (At a certain distance from atomic blast, a sheet of paper will protect you from skin burns. )

          Neither the US nor the SU had perfect information about the weapons of the other side, or the willingness of the other side to take risks.
          Last edited by Polish_Silver; 10-31-13, 12:41 PM.


          • #35
            Re: Great Article/nuclear war

            I'm not a doomer because I don't believe the worst will happen. But I believe the worst, or the "bad enough to be truly inconvenient and/or dangerous", might happen. So I try to be prepared for everything because I don't know how this will all play out over the course of my lifetime.

            I refuse to face TEOTWAWKI without toilet paper.

            Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.


            • #36
              term needed for Crisis Deniers!

              Doomers are crisis mongers. So we need a word for people who don't believe any crisis will ever happen.
              I'll call them "complacents".

              Two of my friends are complacents. These are people who think the national debt is no big deal, that leveraged lending is good because it stimulates the economy, and Peak oil is nothing to worry about.

              I don't think either of them recognized the stock bubble or the housing bubble until they popped.


              • #37
                Cooling Crisis

                The newsweek article:


                Friggin De ja Vu:

                There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

                The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.
                Computers now are a lot better, so a similar mistake could never happen again.


                • #38
                  Reagan = Champion of Democracy?

                  Originally posted by FRED View Post

                  Like others, I said it was futile to re-arrange those loans. But behind the scenes, several New York bankers and Reagan-era Treasury officials quietly negotiated with the Latin American debtors, offering to reschedule their debts at lower interest rates, in exchange for some political concessions – such as free elections – which resulted in the gradual forced retirement of several military dictators. Throughout the mid-1980s, military juntas were replaced by democracies, the last one by a dramatic invasion of Panama in 1989.
                  Is this correct? If so people should be more aware of it.


                  • #39
                    Re: Reagan = Champion of Democracy?

                    I'm a Poomer. Poom all the time, baby.