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Politicians supress influenza response... again

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  • Politicians supress influenza response... again

    Mexico City taking cover as deadly swine flu outbreak hits
    Saturday, April 25, 2009 (The Dallas Morning News - By LAURENCE ILIF)

    Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said public and private mass events would be suspended in coming days but suggested that nightclubs or similar private businesses would not be affected.

    ``I'm asking the population to avoid contacts to the extent possible and activities with agglomerations of people. We are not going to suspend economic activities, but we are trying to avoid greater contacts,'' he said at a news conference.

    ``I'm asking the population to avoid contacts to the extent possible and activities with agglomerations of people. We are not going to suspend economic activities, but we are trying to avoid greater contacts,'' he said at a news conference.

    "What we have to do is avoid the propagation of the virus, its exponential growth, because it's a new virus," he said.

    "The next 10 days will be strategic in order to win the battle."

    AntiSpin: The Mayor in his statement repeated that phrase "economic activities" at least six times in his one minute speech. In doing so he made his government's priorities abundantly clear: public health risk be damned, tax revenue generating economic activities must go on.

    The slowness of the WHO to raise the threat level to acknowledge human to human transmission of the new swine flu a full 19 days after it was proven recalls the politicized response of authorities in the early days of the influenza pandemic that peaked in 1918. Desperate to increase the ranks of servicemen to fight the war, they downplayed the risk of placing thousands of men together in barracks where infection spread unabated. Half of the died. Then they filled the barracks again. Then half of those died. Then they filled them once again. Many thousands died by such criminal negligence. (Read thegreatinfluenza for details.)

    Since the Mayor's speech was published on April 25, the number of reported cases of swine flu has in fact grown exponentially. So far, the Mayor's hope of a slowing spread of infection has not been fulfilled by suspension of non-economic activities, such as soccer games. Later schools were closed.

    Such incrementalism of the response imimics the response taken by authorities during the last pandemic.

    Yet the good Mayor need not worry that exponential growth in swine flu infections will continue for the full ten days from his speech, for if that were to happen then more than 2,500,000 will be ill and 161,792 dead, assuming a mortality rate of 6%.



    Obviously, well before that many cases arise, the airports will be shut down and other major vectors of transmission cut off. If for some reason they are not, because health authorities continue to put politics before public health and an exponential growth in new infections continues, 77% of the world's population will be ill and more than 300 million dead by May 16, 2009.



    That's taking the word "exponential" literally. This is not how pandemics occur -- in a continuous rise -- but rather in waves.

    The true mortality rate is not known. It appears to be lower than 6% outside of Mexico, and in any case will change over time. But it should be remembered that the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic was 2.5% and at that rate killed 40 million.

    We are shocked by the slow response of authorities to this threat, and the political overtones of the response. Let's hope that this virus peters out on its own and does not intensify in waves as the 1918 pandemic did due to the short sightedness of politicians who, as usual, put the short term ahead of long term. In this case long term may be sooner than they think.

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    Last edited by FRED; 04-28-09, 09:39 PM.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

    Overheard:

    Undersecretary: This is great; with this pandemic I will be able to afford my wife’s dream home.

    Assistant: What if it kills you?!

    Undersecretary: Then I won’t need the house.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

      It seems even the itulip community has heard wolf too many times. There is very little doubt that many people will get the flu. Should we multiply the death factor by .06 or .006. There's the rub.

      I just heard Lou Dobbs complaining that getting too upset about the flu will ruin economic recovery.

      You can see the plan here already. Don't stop shopping.

      I'll post the los alamos simulation again. Take note: we don't want to do economically damaging things like closing schools and business.

      Simulation of a pandemic flu outbreak in the continental United States, initially introduced by the arrival of 10 infected individuals in Los Angeles. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the prevalence (number of symptomatic cases at any point in time), is shown on a logarithmic color scale, from 1 or fewer (blue) to 100 or more (red) cases per 1,000 persons. Without vaccination, antiviral drugs, or other mitigation strategies, the entire nation becomes infected within a few months. Depending on the reproductive number R0, effective intervention strategies including vaccination and targeted antiviral prophylaxis can be successful without resorting to economically damaging measures like school closure, quarantine, and work or travel restrictions. This large-scale agent-based simulation involves 280 million people, and uses demographic and worker flow data at the Census tract level, as well as long-range travel statistics, to describe the geographic movement of people. In this simulation, long-range travel is assumed to occur at a lower-than-normal rate (10 percent) due to travel advisories, but with no other mitigation strategies the pandemic quickly spreads nationwide, peaking about 90 days after the initial introduction.
      Blue: Few or none of the population is showing symptoms, more precisely 1 or fewer per 1000 persons.
      Green: 50 per 1,000
      Red: 100 or more cases per 1,000 persons

      [MEDIA]http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/bird4x3red.mov[/MEDIA]
      Last edited by FRED; 04-28-09, 09:45 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

        can't post quicktime.

        find it here:

        http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/avianflu.shtml

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

          tell them it will cause dow 5000 or gold 1000 or something about housing or oil and they will jump.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

            Just think of the advantages of a pandemic. You can declare Force Majeure on so many bad contracts and debt. Then you get to reboot.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

              Fred you meant Mexican flu.


              U.S. officials want 'swine' out of flu name
              28 Apr 2009 21:31:42 GMT
              Source: Reuters
              WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - What's in a name? U.S. pork producers are finding that the name of the virus spreading from Mexico is affecting their business, prompting U.S. officials to argue for changing the name from swine flu.
              At a news briefing, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack took pains to repeatedly refer to the flu as the "H1N1 virus."
              "This is not a food-borne illness, virus. It is not correct to refer to it as swine flu because really that's not what this is about," Vilsack said.
              Israel has already rejected the name swine flu, and opted to call it "Mexico flu." Jewish dietary laws forbid eating pork.
              The Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health also objected to the name, saying the virus contains avian and human components and no pig so far has been found ill with the disease.
              And there is growing sentiment in the farm sector to call it the North American virus -- although disease expert Anthony Fauci told a Senate hearing the "swine flu" designation reflected scientific naming protocol.
              For U.S. pork producers the swine flu name has hurt, forcing government officials into the position of stressing that American pork is safe to eat and that other countries should not ban imports.
              Pork, soybean and corn prices have fallen in the last two days, "and if this continues, obviously you have significant potential, which is why it's important to get this right," Vilsack said.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                Inflation! Boo! Gotcha.

                From your flu crazy member. Flu Map




                http://microbeid.com/swineflu.html

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                  goadam, you're all over this thread like swine on flu.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                    Originally posted by goadam1 View Post
                    Fred you meant Mexican flu.


                    U.S. officials want 'swine' out of flu name...

                    ..."This is not a food-borne illness, virus. It is not correct to refer to it as swine flu because really that's not what this is about," Vilsack said.
                    Israel has already rejected the name swine flu, and opted to call it "Mexico flu."...
                    Totally without any imagination. Let's do the usual and call it "Eurasian Flu". That way we can not-so-subtly lay the blame simultaneously on two foreign continents, and spare our North American NAFTA partner, Mexico, any embarassment...:rolleyes:

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                      Totally without any imagination. Let's do the usual and call it "Eurasian Flu". That way we can not-so-subtly lay the blame simultaneously on two foreign continents, and spare our North American NAFTA partner, Mexico, any embarassment...:rolleyes:
                      Let's just call it the Bush Flu. Who'll be offended by that?
                      Ed.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                        Originally posted by FRED View Post
                        Let's just call it the Bush Flu. Who'll be offended by that?
                        Sounds like something I picked up in college once....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                          He's in New York City. What do you expect? Arguably a worsening outbreak there than anywhere outside of Mexico City. Remember, in NYC, nobody uses a car to go to and from work (very small minority). Everyone uses public transport. Sardine cans. Best regards to you Goadam. Congratulations to all New Yorkers for the instinctive courage they invariably muster.

                          Originally posted by Chomsky View Post
                          goadam, you're all over this thread like swine on flu.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                            I nominate

                            " Bush & Cheney's anthrax "

                            Originally posted by FRED View Post
                            Let's just call it the Bush Flu. Who'll be offended by that?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Politicians supress influenza response... again

                              Ah, someone gets it. New York is going to be the second mega-city to be hit. It's a done deal. I have twin 6 year olds. So trying to figure out how deadly a pandemic flu is is my top priority. If this thing gives half the city the flu but has normal mortality rates, then we ride it out. But this thing was reported as an unbelievable 6 percent mortality rate. No way that is real but a 2% flu is pretty scary. Do we send the kids to school? Ride the subway? Go to the park? I'm sure if you are in suburbia right now this thing seems funny but I am up to the decision making point of this thing.

                              The weird part is I think we already had it. We had a wave at our school of half the kids with "flu like" symptoms. I got it. I still don't feel 100 percent. The doctors said it couldn't be flu because it wasn't around. Or was it already? I hope it was. If it was it was a pretty nasty flu but not as bad as 2003.

                              Comment

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