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  • Government and Service Jobs for All!

    Government and Service Jobs for All!

    The latest payroll employment numbers came out today and they are not pretty. Unemployment has picked up over the past seven months. As usual, before we dig deeper into the Labor Department's numbers to see where jobs were lost and gained, first we unfurl the United Banana Republic of America (UBRA) flag because, once again, the big winner in job growth is in government.
    Jobless rate rises to 4-year high of 5.7 percent
    Friday August 1, 1:29 pm ET
    By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

    Jobless rate rises to 5.7 percent in July as employers cut 51,000 jobs

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 5.7 percent in July as employers cut 51,000 jobs, dashing the hopes of an influx of young people looking for summer work.Payroll cuts weren't as deep as the 72,000 predicted by economists, however. And, job losses for both May and June were smaller than previously reported.
    AntiSpin: First, the bad news: payroll employment is down for the seventh straight month. Readers are reminded that unemployment is a lagging economic indicator; to see unemployment rising at this juncture of a recession generally means it's going to get a lot worse. As we explained in Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I), we are likely only half way through a recession process that started Q4 2007.

    Next, the even worse news: the banana republicization of America has not slowed one bit.



    Hard to believe but in 1990 private sector manufacturing jobs stood at parity with government jobs around 18 million. Today, government jobs account for 16% of total employment while manufacturing accounts for less than 10%.

    The policy of depreciating the dollar to stimulate the economy and correct our trade imbalance leads foreign investors to buying UBRA stocks and other assets at fire sale prices, and travel to the US to enjoy a budget summer vacation in New York City. Don't forget to tip the poor American wait staff! They need the money to buy gasoline that's up more then 300% since the dollar depreciation started in 2002.

    Like a banana republic that depreciates its currency to give the economy a temporary boost, as the private sector – especially the goods producing sector – of the economy shrinks the UBRA government employs more of its citizens directly and through companies that contract to the government, especially as elections approach.


    The FIRE Economy took an employment hit along with the building-new-assets-to-be-inflated sector as the collapsing housing market continued to shed construction workers, real estate agents, mortgage lenders, and assorted bankers.

    Next week we report on who's getting hit the hardest demographically. Hint: they grew up watching "I Dream Of Jeannie," "Gunsmoke," and "The Andy Griffith Show." Average duration of unemployment for those folks is already up to nearly six months.

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    Last edited by FRED; 08-01-08, 03:07 PM.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

    Fred:

    Are the ever-expanding government workforce numbers kosher? Hiring freezes at all levels are rampant but the reported expansion goes on. I have no doubt of government's ability for infinite expansion but like the rest of us, I'm completely cynical about the official figures.

    Are the numbers legit?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

      In a related jobs story the NY Times ran this on today's front page.

      China’s Ambition Soars to High-Tech Industry

      http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/bu...ef=todayspaper

      One of the principal jobs of the Times is to prepare the ideological battlefield for what's to come. Being privy to the chief editors' conferences for these national leads- now that would be interesting news.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

        Originally posted by don View Post
        Fred:

        Are the ever-expanding government workforce numbers kosher? Hiring freezes at all levels are rampant but the reported expansion goes on. I have no doubt of government's ability for infinite expansion but like the rest of us, I'm completely cynical about the official figures.

        Are the numbers legit?
        What is their motive to exaggerate government employment? Reasonable to ask were most of the growth is and in fact it is not in federal government jobs but state and local. All data are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.





        Last edited by FRED; 08-02-08, 10:56 PM.
        Ed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

          Originally posted by FRED View Post
          What is their motive to exaggerate government employment? Reasonable to ask were most of the growth is and in fact it is not in Federal government jobs but state and local.
          Interesting. But with states and cities already hurting for money, how much longer can they continue to add more public employees?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

            Originally posted by zoog View Post
            Interesting. But with states and cities already hurting for money, how much longer can they continue to add more public employees?
            Well, if they pay all of their employees minimum wage, maybe for awhile longer! Did the BLS really say construction added 1K jobs last month? We all know that's impossible. The veracity of these numbers is truly questionable.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

              the state and local governments will receive a huge bailout with printed money from Washington, ultimate federalization that started with Lincoln's War. The federal government can print money and the other governments can't. So we have this to look forward to.

              One more reason to buy (Real) gold!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                Originally posted by FRED View Post
                What is their motive to exaggerate government employment? Reasonable to ask were most of the growth is and in fact it is not in federal government jobs but state and local. All data are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

                last recession, fed gov't hired about 400k people (3200 - 2800). who the heck are all these gov't employees? what do they do? looks like they only work for a few months. weird.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                  looks like those spikes were all census workers. [1980, 1990, 2000] btw, so much for the theory of the hiring being atecedant to recessions. fooled by randomness.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                    Originally posted by jk View Post
                    looks like those spikes were all census workers. [1980, 1990, 2000] btw, so much for the theory of the hiring being atecedant to recessions. fooled by randomness.
                    Excellent observation! So that's why they hold the census every ten years. They know there's going to be a recession. :rolleyes:

                    It is ver likely census bureau hiring, except in the case of 1974 - 1975.
                    Ed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                      Originally posted by FRED View Post
                      Chart show federal government jobs growth related to Reagan and Clinton administrations, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.



                      We were asked by Redditors which periods of party dominance in Congress, Democrat or Republican, were most responsible for expanding the federal government. Using total federal government debt as the relevant measure government expansion, the answer is that since the Kennedy administration both parties have expanded our government and its debt.


                      Click to Enlarge
                      Last edited by FRED; 08-04-08, 04:38 PM.
                      Ed.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                        I'd like to see this Republican/Democratic spending chart adjusted for inflation and/or summed by percentage increase and totaled by party.

                        Of course spending is always going up.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                          Originally posted by ax View Post
                          Well, if they pay all of their employees minimum wage, maybe for awhile longer! Did the BLS really say construction added 1K jobs last month? We all know that's impossible. The veracity of these numbers is truly questionable.

                          I suspect that while you are seeing a nominal increase in construction jobs, it is only because govt statistics fail to account accurately for the millions of illegal aliens who came to dominate that industry. I can assure you if they were accurately counted, the unemployment numbers would be off the chart. But since they never officially existed, they may not count as unemployed either. Kind of convienient how our government can count illegal aliens when it makes them look good( employment figures) and not count them when things look bad( unemployment figures).

                          If an "undocumented worker" loses his job and returns to his home country, does that still count as unemployed? He's certainly not still looking for work in this country. See how easy it is to play with statistics?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                            Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                            I suspect that while you are seeing a nominal increase in construction jobs, it is only because govt statistics fail to account accurately for the millions of illegal aliens who came to dominate that industry. I can assure you if they were accurately counted, the unemployment numbers would be off the chart. But since they never officially existed, they may not count as unemployed either. Kind of convienient how our government can count illegal aliens when it makes them look good( employment figures) and not count them when things look bad( unemployment figures).

                            If an "undocumented worker" loses his job and returns to his home country, does that still count as unemployed? He's certainly not still looking for work in this country. See how easy it is to play with statistics?
                            it's obvious that a policy decision was made at some level that went like this... need cheap labor to build homes to make the housing bubble work... need lax border control... need to loosen requirements to allow workers to move freely between across the southern border...

                            where in gov't could such a range of economic and immigration policies be coordinated? i believe it most surely was. and... what the fuck are they up to now?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Government and Service Jobs for All!

                              Originally posted by metalman View Post
                              where in gov't could such a range of economic and immigration policies be coordinated? i believe it most surely was. and... what the fuck are they up to now?
                              I think Admiral Nelson had an appropriate quote to shed light on the so-called policy of recent years, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead."

                              You pays (or more appropriately, you borrow on leverage) your money, and you takes your chance . . .

                              Comment

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