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a critique of pure "ruin" - comments on "the road to ruin"

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  • #16
    Re: a critique of pure "ruin" - comments on "the road to ruin"

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    c1ue, most of the goods we import from china are discretionary as far as i can tell. and discretionary goods will no longer be imported. what keeps walmart sales up is the fact that walmart moved into the grocery business. and even groceries are showing a payday bump- as people run out of money before the next paycheck, then go stock up.

    Anecdotally, I have a friend who works at Wal Mart. He said things have been slowing down. He never says that.

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    • #17
      Re: a critique of pure "ruin" - comments on "the road to ruin"

      JK,

      I agree that if the total volume of goods purchased from WalMart in 2006 is considered - the majority is discretionary.

      However, a lot of it is not.

      I don't see toothbrushes, toothpaste, toilet paper, detergent, aspirin, cough medicine, etc as being discretionary.

      Looking at store stock breakdown:

      1/4 of WalMart is clothing

      Similarly another 1/4 was furniture/household stuff - towels, appliances, etc

      Groceries are only 1/16th of Walmart

      Bath/beauty/health is another 1/12th

      Auto/Home improvement/pet/toys covers the rest.

      Looking at sales breakdown:

      Walmart has not been publishing breakdowns in many years; the most recent I can find is from 2002. Thus grocery sales is likely somewhat underrepresented though by no means necessarily.

      WAL-MART STORES, 2002 SALES *

      Percent share by category

      Grocery, Candy Tobacco 24%
      Shoes 1%
      Jewelry 1%
      One-Hour Photo 2%
      Stationery 3%
      Sporting Good & Toys 6%
      Health & Beauty 7%
      Electronics 9%
      Pharmaceuticals 9%
      Softgoods/Domestics 18%
      Hardgoods 21%
      Looking at the above - clearly there is a strong base in a large number of the above segments. Even the hard goods - some of this will decline, but new households still need some furniture, towels, rugs, and what not.

      The point is - Wal Mart's sales aren't going to disappear. Even as some significant chunk of grocery sales have China exports in them, it is unlikely that Wal Mart's overall 60%+ China inventory representation will dramatically shift.

      Thus the dramatic fall in autos, LCD TVs, and other miscellaneous bubble purchases will drop China's exports, but the nuts and bolts daily needs which China also supplies won't be changing much.

      Not until we really do get into 1933 of the 21st century, or Weimerica.

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