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grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

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  • grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

    2 short talks, summing up the case for gold, why it's still the investment of [another] decade or so, and how we'll know it's time to sell.

    here


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/grant-...ty-owning-gold

  • #2
    Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

    timely post; thank you.

    grant sums it up at the end that the 1 key indicator of the continued bull market is that CB monetary policy is not changing.

    A problem that I've been aware of for some time and which is evidenced today is that it doesn't appear to take any actual policy change, but merely a hint here or there to take the metals down.

    Imagine what would happen if the FEd announced that it was going to withdraw the "on hold till end of 2014" language OR even raise 25 basis points. The metals would crash hard IMO, although neither of these actions really change the liquidity flood or the currency debasement and inflation that seems inevitably looming.

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    • #3
      Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

      Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
      timely post; thank you.

      grant sums it up at the end that the 1 key indicator of the continued bull market is that CB monetary policy is not changing.

      A problem that I've been aware of for some time and which is evidenced today is that it doesn't appear to take any actual policy change, but merely a hint here or there to take the metals down.

      Imagine what would happen if the FEd announced that it was going to withdraw the "on hold till end of 2014" language OR even raise 25 basis points. The metals would crash hard IMO, although neither of these actions really change the liquidity flood or the currency debasement and inflation that seems inevitably looming.
      what do you imagine equity markets would do in this scenario? to ask this question is to say why it won't happen.

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      • #4
        Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        what do you imagine equity markets would do in this scenario? to ask this question is to say why it won't happen.
        Not sure, but given today's action it would seem perhaps equities would hold up a little better. Sure an initial sell-off in equities is expected, but it's the paradigm change that could take down the PMs a lot harder.

        The difference in my view is that equities and other assets can continue to climb while the fed slowly raises rates, as long as nominal GDP looks OK; long bond yields may creep up but until they start sky rocketing and inflation is evident, stocks could continue to do alright while gold ....?

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        • #5
          Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

          i think what you are positing is an environment of healthy growth. if the global economy can indeed exhibit healthy growth, then i agree equities could do ok, and gold tank. otoh, i don't think healthy growth can be achieved until AFTER the debt overhang is dealt with. that means AFTER either a long period of stagflation, a burst of inflation, or a deflationary bust. but i think monetary authorities will print forever to prevent a deflationary bust, so we're left with a period of stagflation or an inflationary burst. thus, the case for gold going forward [for a period of years].

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          • #6
            Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

            Originally posted by jk View Post
            i think what you are positing is an environment of healthy growth. if the global economy can indeed exhibit healthy growth, then i agree equities could do ok, and gold tank. otoh, i don't think healthy growth can be achieved until AFTER the debt overhang is dealt with. that means AFTER either a long period of stagflation, a burst of inflation, or a deflationary bust. but i think monetary authorities will print forever to prevent a deflationary bust, so we're left with a period of stagflation or an inflationary burst. thus, the case for gold going forward [for a period of years].
            My view in agreement with yours is that the liquidity spigots will not be turned off and so we will have semi-healthy nominal growth (not real). It's clear now that nothing of importance will be allowed to fail. So a combination of monetary authorities goal of inflating asset prices (in this case equities) along with the need for yield sought by the top 20% will keep equities afloat and nominally increasing (at least enough to keep up with inflation). The cynical side of me thinks now this is a symbiosis of some kind - since the top 20% spend 70%+ of consumption, the need to keep them happy is accomplished by keeping stock markets rising (the lower middle, working classes be damned - although there's a lot gov safety nets to prevent open push-back).

            So gold will continue to rise as well I agree. The problem arises knowing when to sell. We all may be proven right ... and then one Sunday the Feds anounce new rules on gold ownership (e.g., no longer legal to trade or hold OR shall be heavily taxed etc.) Ouch.

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            • #7
              Re: grant williams- case for gold, and when to sell

              Grant William's presentation sounds suspiciously similar to EJ's ideas as expressed here over the last N years. I can see why he is having reservations about continuing to publish.

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