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seth klarman: "but not yet" - the coming crisis

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  • #16
    Re: seth klarman: "but not yet" - the coming crisis

    I agree. The FED believes their own B.S. --> And to be fair, they have been closer to right than wrong over the past couple of years. They printed a gazillion dollars, but said do not worry... it will not cause inflation (CPI). So far, it has not. The QE has filled holes in balance sheets, as well as raised paper asset prices to where they were in 2008. They see some inflation popping up now, and so they will stop printing until needed again. They are telegraphing their intentions. We should believe them.

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    • #17
      Re: seth klarman: "but not yet" - the coming crisis

      from randall forsyth's column tonight:

      What happens once the Fed's buying winds down? David Goldman, former head of credit research at Bank of America, offers a prediction in his Inner Workings blog at Asia Times' (blog.atimes.net.)

      "There's no place to hide if the Fed removes QE: yields will have to rise enough to attract savings (and no-one knows quite how high that will be), and the savings rate will have to rise, which means that consumption will fall. The prices of inflation hedges including commodities will fall, all things (such as the safety of Persian Gulf supplies) being equal. Banks will get clobbered because the yield curve will flatten; consumer stocks will get clobbered; in fact, everything will get clobbered," he writes.

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      • #18
        Re: seth klarman: "but not yet" - the coming crisis

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        p.s. re the fed's belief's- was just re-reading an email i wrote a few days ago and came on a passage i thought i'd post:

        i just read a speech given by philly fed pres plosser about the fed's "exit strategy," when and how they should shrink their balance sheet, raise rates, and so on. i think they really believe that the economy is on the mend. of course, they also really believed that the housing problems were only in the subprime sector, and that the subprime problems were "contained," so i don't necessarily think they have an accurate picture of the world.

        i think they mostly talk to bankers, and the bankers - flush with free money and a steep yield curve, and flush with new bonuses and now renewed dividends in spite of all the make-believe they're hiding on their books with extend and pretend - anyway, sorry for going off on a rant. as i was saying, i think the fed people mostly talk to bankers. and the bankers thought subprime was contained. and the bankers are feeling pretty good about life now, again, and so the fed thinks all is well. that's my latest theory, which i just created as i typed this paragraph, and i'm sticking to it til i think of something better. ;-)
        Or how about this:

        The Fed damn well knows that neoliberal economic policies, deregulation, nepotism, imperilalism, corruption, inflation, debt deflation, bread and circuses, xboxes, subprime toxic mortgages, derivatives, militarism, unfunded liabilities, bailouts, American Idol, carbon taxes, destruction of communities, debt serfdom, and all the other crap that is going on are good for bankers and their minions and bad for everyone else.

        This is what it always looks like when wealth is concentrated. This is not rocket science. They knew and they know what is happening.

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