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Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

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  • metalman
    replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

    Originally posted by xPat View Post
    Almost forgot to mention...

    One of the guys over at ChrisMartenson.com put together this (comedic) video spoof about market manipulation. I thought it hilarious: http://www.youtube.com/v/H_4Xgi543EE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0

    xPat
    cute idea but it's a tad slow... that's a 3 min. joke not a 15 min. joke.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

    Almost forgot to mention...

    One of the guys over at ChrisMartenson.com put together this (comedic) video spoof about market manipulation. I thought it hilarious: http://www.youtube.com/v/H_4Xgi543EE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0

    xPat

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

    FinancialSense hosted a debate between Jeff Christian and Bill Murphy of GATA on this weekend's show. Here's the link: http://www.financialsensenewshour.co...010-0515-2.mp3

    I am proud to have been a catalyst in bringing this about. I felt a very one-sided story was being told, and now both arguments are clearly on the table and investors can make their own informed decisions about who's making sense and who isn't.

    xPat

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  • bart
    replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

    Originally posted by xPat View Post
    Aha! So now iTulip admits that gold has been manipulated 9 out of the last 10 years! Quick, call Eric King to do another interview...

    xPat

    I say we also take up a collection for extra clown hats for Mish (aka Pollyanna)... ;-)

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend

    Aha! So now iTulip admits that gold has been manipulated 9 out of the last 10 years! Quick, call Eric King to do another interview...

    xPat

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  • FRED
    replied
    Re: Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend


    Decade of manipulators.

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  • Supercilious
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Originally posted by xPat View Post
    FinancialSense asked me to write a reply to Chris Powell's rebuttal letter. They have posted it on their website, but unfortunately they got the link wrong so the homepage doesn't correctly link to it. Here's the corrected link: http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2010/0423.html

    There's also a response from Jeff Christian to GATA, which you can find on the home page at financialsense.com.

    I continue to believe that a back and forth memo writing contest is pointless. All parties seem to now agree that a debate between Christian and GATA would make a lot of sense. Nothing firm yet, but I'm pretty optimistic that will happen.

    xPat
    Your reply was excellent Erik. Congratulations.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Update from the author

    FinancialSense asked me to write a reply to Chris Powell's rebuttal letter. They have posted it on their website, but unfortunately they got the link wrong so the homepage doesn't correctly link to it. Here's the corrected link: http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2010/0423.html

    There's also a response from Jeff Christian to GATA, which you can find on the home page at financialsense.com.

    I continue to believe that a back and forth memo writing contest is pointless. All parties seem to now agree that a debate between Christian and GATA would make a lot of sense. Nothing firm yet, but I'm pretty optimistic that will happen.

    xPat

    Leave a comment:


  • Pascal
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Absolutely no need for any apology. You bring a different point of view and a great deal of information to these boards.

    Like Jtabeb, I certainly hope you keep posting here!

    Leave a comment:


  • jtabeb
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Aww, that would take all the fun out! (But in answer to your question, all of them.)

    I think the key to any of these calculations (estimates, really) is that you need to pick the correct starting dates for comparison AND you need a proper inflation metric.

    I like John Williams of Shadow Stats for the CPI numbers as it is the only thing I've found that recreates the historical CPI calculations, back to the real start of the FIRE era which is also around 1980ish.

    That also luckily corresponds to the last time the money supply was fully covered (1-1) by the reported gold bullion holdings of the US.

    There is a synergy in this approach because you are really comparing the pre-Fire era to the Fire era.

    I guess my whole point is that Steve Keen has show that reserves ALWAYS follow credit expansion, not the other way around as most other economists would argue.

    To me that means, that although we will have a large decline in financial asset prices, there is still going to be A MAJOR amount of monetization to bring prices and ability to pay back in line.

    The take away IS what ever the "fair price" of gold is today, eventually the gold price is going to have to reflect all that monetization that lies ahead.

    Where it stops? Dow to gold .5-.25, US gold to US money supply ratio under one.

    (That assumes NO hyper-inflation).

    If you allow for hyperinflation, then all bets are off, of course.
    Last edited by jtabeb; 04-23-10, 05:13 PM. Reason: correction assumes NO hyperinflation

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  • Supercilious
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Originally posted by Pascal View Post
    Thanks also to Symbols in particular for some thought-provoking comments, even though many of them were fairly depressing. Whenever I've been worried in the past about possible manipulation, I've always consoled myself with the conventional wisdom that a manipulation can work in the short-term, but not much longer. After reading Symbols I'm not so sure.

    Cheers
    Pascal, thank you for your kind words, and I apologise for making depressing commentaries. The truth is that once you understand how things really work, you have to develop a taste for bitter/cynical humour, or for various kinds of antidepressants (like Andrew Lahde), or you sell your soul and start making (stealing) money, while declaring you do God's work.

    Leave a comment:


  • Supercilious
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
    Me thinks your numbers are too low. I like the money supply outstanding vs CB gold supply. You know, like circa 1980, when the coverage ration went to 1-1. Like that, only a different ratio maybe. Could be a smaller ratio, or a bigger one. What do you think?
    I think that Bart can answer better that question, but in that case one would assume that all world currencies would get on a gold standard. By the way.... Which number do you think is too low $50,000/oz , $8000/oz, $2600/oz or $1500/oz ?

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  • jtabeb
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Me thinks your numbers are too low. I like the money supply outstanding vs CB gold supply. You know, like circa 1980, when the coverage ration went to 1-1. Like that, only a different ratio maybe. Could be a smaller ratio, or a bigger one. What do you think?

    Leave a comment:


  • Supercilious
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    Originally posted by LargoWinch
    Man, I thought the FED had you "retired". ;)
    Well, they tried, but the vault in which they put me had only 3 feet thick walls (I'm still very busy and I'll be off iTulip again this weekend. If I don't reappear in a few months, then, probably, Bernanke has put me in an orange jumpsuit, and Geitner is torturing me everyday by forcing me to listen to his interpretation of Das Kapital.)

    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post

    Simply, how undervalued IS gold? (Based on the tools that are available to prevent true market price discovery)

    Again, we are agreeing that the price is manipulated, so I would like your opinion on what a free market price of physical gold should be if these manipulative constraints were removed or overcome.

    I have my own idea's, but I really would like to know what you think.

    (I saw you were still on the thread and there wasn't much action, so I thought I'd just spice things up a bit)
    This is a question very difficult to answer, because we are talking about a systemic value. For example is easy to say that the chinese Yuan is undervalued with respect to USD due to the currency manipulation (mainly through dollar sterilization) perpetrated by PBoC. If you take the absolute PPP as a yardstick you get that Yuan is undervalued with 50%, and if you rely on MacPPP you get 67% (you get a different yardstick you get a different value, but IMHO PPP and MacPPP are the most accurate metrics). But you can say that only because both US and China are in fact losing money financing China's rapid development and the system is unstable, therefore one can calculate the yuan undervaluation assuming the absence of chinese currency manipulation and the absence of trade barriers.

    To calculate the "real" price of physical gold, one should detail all the assumptions. IMHO, currently we have two types of manipulative effects:
    1)CBs trying to keep the price of gold depressed.
    2) Vampire squids playing financial gold.

    With 1) maybe Bart has a better idea, because things are really opaque, and it is difficult even to identify evidence of manipulation from big CBs.
    With 2) things are even more complicated because big financial players make most of their profits in the OTC market. If a lot of "sophisticated" investors are convinced by a respectable Vampire Squid that gold (oil or other commodity) is going up, they all gather themselves in a long herd, wile the Vampire Squid financial entity takes the other side of the deal pushing the price down. But financial manipulation doesn't have necessarily an effect of depressing gold prices. They can make good money by pushing the gold (or any other commodity) up, then down again, until the "sophisticated" investors have lost most of your retirement savings, 401k and so on and the government has to borrow more for another bailout.

    You can also take a macro forensic approach. Go to that horror fairy tale foileton called H4.1 get all The Fed liabilities. Then get the number for Fed's gold reserves, subtract from that the total weight of fake tungsten bars and you get a price of $50,000/oz. (if the spot price of tungsten equals the spot price of gold than you can consider that all those tungsten bars are as good as gold, and the price would be about $8000/oz.

    You can also take the price of gold in 1913 (when a group of private banks formed the Fed and entered the business of counterfeiting gold certificates) at 20.67/oz and use a good inflation indicator (such as Finster's index) and calculate the cumulative inflation 1913-2010. You get 20.67*(e^4.25)=$1449/oz

    If you do the math for '33 and $35/oz you get some $2600/oz

    By the way, going back to the original subject, just to make things better, Bill Murphy goes to Alex Jones and gives an interview in which he compares himself with Markopulous. For Pete's sake!!!! I couldn't take it any more. Listening to this interview I had the impression that Alex Jones had better knowledge and more common sense than Murphy.






    Mabe Erik should go and give an interview on Alex Jones. Who knows? Maybe Murphy can get some common sense and learn something through that avenue. I don't know what to say any more....
    Last edited by Supercilious; 04-23-10, 01:13 AM. Reason: typos, lots of them

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  • jtabeb
    replied
    Re: Update from the author

    One more thing, I just wanted to share my financial reform proposal with you. Most of the group here has had a chance to read it. I was wondering if you could give me a few pointers.

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-TO-FIX-THINGS...

    Leave a comment:

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