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What the Hell Happened Today?

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  • What the Hell Happened Today?

    I’ve been away from the computer most of the day, why are shitty over-priced stocks even more over-priced today? What’s the word on the street? Smells like some shorts got their asses handed to them to me, but I’m sure everyone was buying hand over fist like there was no tomorrow because yesterday’s retail numbers sucked and today’s retail numbers don’t suck. For a moment there I thought I was going to be richer than Howard Hughes, who knows maybe that will happen tomorrow. Greed is a wonderful thing and overcomes a whole lot of walls of worry in no time flat. Looked like almost everyone was a winner in the Casino today, the Mighty Metal was up, POS stocks were up, Volume looked up, looks like the House wants to make sure nobody has any money left in their pockets and it’s all on the table before they pull the rug out from under everyone.



    Making money was so easy today I thought I was working for Morgan Stanley.
    Pretty soon everybody is going to be thinking banking some coin in the market is so easy even a caveman can do it and that’s when things really get interesting. Before interesting gets here, I'd say we head higher still.
    Last edited by Tet; 07-12-07, 05:06 PM.
    "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
    - Charles Mackay

  • #2
    Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

    Don't forget that massive liquidity still means there is plenty to prime the pumps with.

    This is what makes timing predictions impossible - there is no way to figure out when and how this liquidity will be drained.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

      wal mart and jc penny came out with very good sales numbers, especially wal mart.

      it's days like this that make me feel okay about owning walmart stock.

      -DD, an unabashed, unapologetic wal-mart shopping and sam's club shopping walmart shareholder.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

        Originally posted by DemonD View Post
        wal mart and jc penny came out with very good sales numbers, especially wal mart.

        it's days like this that make me feel okay about owning walmart stock.

        -DD, an unabashed, unapologetic wal-mart shopping and sam's club shopping walmart shareholder.
        DemonD, nothing wrong with shopping at Wal-Mart or Sam's Club. How much money can one save buying things that one needs at these stores? To me it saves a lot, and screw anyone too high-browed to go to Wal-Mart, and I don't own Wal-Mart stock.

        To Tet:

        Today my computers were screwed up and everytime I could get one of three to sort of work, the markets were higher. I am a bit short, and I got a bit of my ass handed to me today. I put this up a couple of nights back. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19650867/site/newsweek/
        Quote of Barton Biggs
        Beginning in mid-May 1987, the U.S. and most other world stock markets took off, with the Dow Jones industrial average climbing from just over 2200 in late May to well over 2700 (a gain of more than 20 percent) by August. Big-capitalization blue-chip stocks led this surge. This pattern is very similar to what is currently happening. Each scare is followed by a surge to new highs. Gradually the bearishness is beaten out of the sellers. Big-capitalization stocks are on the rise. We could be headed for another blowoff and then a bust. My guess, though, is that in terms of time, we are in the spring of 1987. There could be a spike ahead. But then watch out.[quote]

        I am agreeing with Biggs, to me it is feeling like 1987 again, or maybe late 1999 again. The only question I have is whether these markets will ever really get even a decent correction. Seems as if that is verboten.
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

          [quote=Jim Nickerson;12248]DemonD, nothing wrong with shopping at Wal-Mart or Sam's Club. How much money can one save buying things that one needs at these stores? To me it saves a lot, and screw anyone too high-browed to go to Wal-Mart, and I don't own Wal-Mart stock.

          To Tet:

          Today my computers were screwed up and everytime I could get one of three to sort of work, the markets were higher. I am a bit short, and I got a bit of my ass handed to me today. I put this up a couple of nights back. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19650867/site/newsweek/
          Quote of Barton Biggs
          Beginning in mid-May 1987, the U.S. and most other world stock markets took off, with the Dow Jones industrial average climbing from just over 2200 in late May to well over 2700 (a gain of more than 20 percent) by August. Big-capitalization blue-chip stocks led this surge. This pattern is very similar to what is currently happening. Each scare is followed by a surge to new highs. Gradually the bearishness is beaten out of the sellers. Big-capitalization stocks are on the rise. We could be headed for another blowoff and then a bust. My guess, though, is that in terms of time, we are in the spring of 1987. There could be a spike ahead. But then watch out.

          I am agreeing with Biggs, to me it is feeling like 1987 again, or maybe late 1999 again. The only question I have is whether these markets will ever really get even a decent correction. Seems as if that is verboten.
          I don't disagree with you sentiment, as with everything it's all a matter of timing. I'm thinking the fall might not be the time period to be long, but for the moment that's the cards I've got. When I checked this morning I was getting my ass handed to me as well and I'm long, strange day. That's why I was a bit surprised when I checked late in the day. These bullshit from out of nowhere rallies have a way of lasting longer than one might think. I think there's some resistance levels that really need to be broken through before they take the market down again.
          "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
          - Charles Mackay

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

            Originally posted by Tet View Post
            looks like the House wants to make sure nobody has any money left in their pockets and itís all on the table before they pull the rug out from under everyone.
            You are onto something with the above, I asked a friend of mine why all the extreme hype with the markets and he replied that principals on all bank loans are still liabilities of their respective banks... Bingo, that explains a lot of things. So in effect your above perception is correct.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

              You know something is amiss when Energizer buys Playtex at a 15% premium to market value... (yes that's the battery company buying the tampon making company. love the synergy there eh? i'm thinking they'll be making battery powered tampons)

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A pure gambling question

                To me the question is a pure gambling question: how to optimize timing and bet-sizing on a bubble. Oil is in a similar state. The storage tanks are all full, there's more oil around than anyone knows what to do with, but the price keeps going up because of all the little guys piling into managed futures assets.

                We've actually created an artificial peak -- speculation has driven prices up so high that Indonesian fisherman can't buy gasoline to go out to sea. Producers could pump more, but the Indonesian fisherman can't afford it at this price and there's no market for the actual liquid in rich countries because there's so much in storage.

                The great Dog Whisperer, Helicopter Ben, has by now conditioned everyone to buy into every dip, and does anyone see any sign that more money is not on the way?

                It seems a shame to be governed by fundamentals and leave all that money on the table. What's the best way to bet this?
                Last edited by Moe_Gamble; 07-14-07, 07:08 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

                  Yes, a technical correction indeed awaits in petroleum.

                  Clive Maund:

                  http://www.321energy.com/editorials/...und071207.html

                  Now everyone can fade this thread because I posted here and the perception is that I've offended Tet by questioning whether we indeed have access to miraculously self-regenerating energy, and whether that can be a prudent way to plan our economic future.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

                    Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                    Yes, a technical correction indeed awaits in petroleum.

                    Clive Maund:

                    http://www.321energy.com/editorials/...und071207.html

                    Now everyone can fade this thread because I posted here and the perception is that I've offended Tet by questioning whether we indeed have access to miraculously self-regenerating energy, and whether that can be a prudent way to plan our economic future.
                    Generally, I like Maund's analyses, and I don't dislike the one you referenced, which I think is worth anyone's time to look at it if anyone is interested in oil, but despite his arguments which I think depict fear ("Anyone still long oil or stocks should liquidate positions immediately..") because of the -Commercial COT short positions, I think the indicators on his chart--the RSI and MACD--are not that negative.

                    If one will get a stockcharts.com $wtic and put in the same RSI and MACD and look at longer periods (3-4 years) it appears to me that RSI continues in an uptrend since 10/06 and the same for the MACD. Once RSI's and MACD's top out and reverse, the underlying stock, index I believe most often continues higher. There may well be a pull back in here soon, but liquidating postions seems to me a bit rash.
                    Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 07-14-07, 10:18 PM.
                    Jim 69 y/o

                    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: What the Hell Happened Today?

                      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                      There may well be a pull back in here soon, but liquidating postions seems to me a bit rash.
                      Jim, I think it will go to 80 but the thing that is bothering me is last year's rigging (reweighting) of the GSCI to lower gasoline prices before the elections. And the action last week kept feeling like intervention (and not just to me). But the speculators just calmly kept buying after every slam.

                      Would the government intervene to control the appearance of inflation, as they have done with gold?

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