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Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

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  • santafe2
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by raja View Post
    1) Sell gold right before the collapse, and immediately buy things of value -- houses, tractors, land, anything "real" that won't lose value during the crash. This would be hard to time, but after the crash the government might pass nasty laws dealing with gold ownership, so this could be the safest move.

    2) Hold the gold until after the monetary system crashes, then trade it for "real" stuff.

    3) When the world economy recovers, sell the gold for the new fiat, which will hopefully be stabilized and worth something, then invest the fiat.


    I like a modified version of door number one. Buy stuff that is useful in the material world. If one has not started yet, begin to shed metals for real assets that offer a return. For me, this asset is real estate. Non-fancy, bank owned, neglected real property in good neighborhoods. It's not something one is going to make a killing on but this asset is the poor step child of assets seven years after it was king. It feels a bit like metals in 2000 and it's local. I can leverage some of it against crazy low interest rates on a currency that has few chances of succeeding long term. During this quiet period before new financial storms land, it's a good time to position assets into productive, non speculative areas. Assets you can touch, used by people you trust. That is the most important investment meme over the next several decades. Be smart, be careful, be local.

    Leave a comment:


  • gwynedd1
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    peak cheap oil = rising prices

    when gas prices go up folks ride trains/busses more... if they have the option.

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20...p-reports?lite

    fast price rise = economic shock...



    solution...

    raise gas taxes 50 cents/year & diesel 25 cents.

    use the tax $$$ to build public transport.

    in 4 yrs gas = $6 & diesel = $5... cars fleet smaller... more efficient diesel cars on the road... folks drive fewer miles... usa energy efficiency shoots up.

    prep the usa auto industry on the plan... gm & ford kick ass

    win, win, win
    How about the value of the land that goes up from its location to the new transportation system? I see another win.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
    Which in turn reminds me of the fable of the robbery of such a person with a wheelbarrow full of money, who was standing in line to buy food.
    The thief knocked the person down, dumped out the big pile of cash, and ran away with the empty wheel barrow.
    Well that's a new one, I had not heard that before. Nice one, the barrow worth more than the money it carries.

    Leave a comment:


  • thriftyandboringinohio
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
    You instantly reminded me of the picture of a boy with a wheel barrow full of money sent out to buy a loaf of bread.
    Which in turn reminds me of the fable of the robbery of such a person with a wheelbarrow full of money, who was standing in line to buy food.
    The thief knocked the person down, dumped out the big pile of cash, and ran away with the empty wheel barrow.

    Leave a comment:


  • Slimprofits
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    the only justification for such policies that has a chance of flying politically, is national security. the right geopolitical situation and "the president addresses the nation" in prime time....

    Your signature says it all.

    The exact opposite is happening, as the populace is being promised that we now have enough natural gas and shale oil to become completely energy independent at the same rate of usage for the next 100 years. The "peak cheap oil problem" has already been solved!

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by shiny! View Post
    Cash would be useful for day-to-day in a scenario like that.
    You instantly reminded me of the picture of a boy with a wheel barrow full of money sent out to buy a loaf of bread.

    Leave a comment:


  • shiny!
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by raja View Post
    That's one scenario . . . .

    But what about a collapse of the global financial system, like in 2008, this time brought about by a financial tsunami started in Europe . . . and the Fed isn't able to orchestrate a save. Banks freeze up; economic life comes to a standstill.
    If that scenario played out, it could do so in a week.

    Of course, in that instance it would be best to hold onto gold . . . .
    Cash would be useful for day-to-day in a scenario like that.

    Leave a comment:


  • raja
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    i think we have a few days between now and then to watch how things unfold, and don't actually have to decide on a plan at this moment.
    That's one scenario . . . .

    But what about a collapse of the global financial system, like in 2008, this time brought about by a financial tsunami started in Europe . . . and the Fed isn't able to orchestrate a save. Banks freeze up; economic life comes to a standstill.
    If that scenario played out, it could do so in a week.

    Of course, in that instance it would be best to hold onto gold . . . .

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by bart View Post
    and here i thought that was going to be the marx brothers from duck soup.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by raja View Post
    Below is a chart EJ put out in 2010.

    If the "US Bond Treasury market blow up" mentioned in the chart is the same thing as the "international monetary system collapse", it looks like gold will not collapse, although it does dip down once inflation starts to subside.

    When EJ says "we're going to hold gold until the international monetary system finishes it's collapse", is he suggesting to sell at that $6000 peak in the chart below? It seems to me that the best thing would be continue to hold gold until the dust settles, rather than try to time the top. Or to attempt to sell gold when Treasuries hit 25%, as the chart depicts -- then use the $$ to buy Treasuries and lock in 25% for the next 30 years.
    i think we have a few days between now and then to watch how things unfold, and don't actually have to decide on a plan at this moment.

    Leave a comment:


  • bart
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    the only justification for such policies that has a chance of flying politically, is national security. the right geopolitical situation and "the president addresses the nation" in prime time....
    *sarc*, thought for the day:

    http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/b..._means_war.wav

    Leave a comment:


  • raja
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally Posted by EJ
    We’ll hold gold until the international monetary system finishes its slow motion collapse, unless war breaks out and it collapses in a hurry.
    Below is a chart EJ put out in 2010.

    If the "US Bond Treasury market blow up" mentioned in the chart is the same thing as the "international monetary system collapse", it looks like gold will not collapse, although it does dip down once inflation starts to subside.

    When EJ says "we're going to hold gold until the international monetary system finishes it's collapse", is he suggesting to sell at that $6000 peak in the chart below? It seems to me that the best thing would be continue to hold gold until the dust settles, rather than try to time the top. Or to attempt to sell gold when Treasuries hit 25%, as the chart depicts -- then use the $$ to buy Treasuries and lock in 25% for the next 30 years.
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    the only justification for such policies that has a chance of flying politically, is national security. the right geopolitical situation and "the president addresses the nation" in prime time....

    Leave a comment:


  • c1ue
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jk
    yeah, everything but the election that would allow you to put those policies in place.
    And more importantly, the next election where the President who does this gets booted out.

    The well of good will was thoroughly used and abused by Obama...

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Janszen Scenario Update Two – Part III: Practice Run - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by metalman View Post

    solution...

    raise gas taxes 50 cents/year & diesel 25 cents.

    use the tax $$$ to build public transport.

    in 4 yrs gas = $6 & diesel = $5... cars fleet smaller... more efficient diesel cars on the road... folks drive fewer miles... usa energy efficiency shoots up.

    prep the usa auto industry on the plan... gm & ford kick ass

    win, win, win
    yeah, everything but the election that would allow you to put those policies in place.

    Leave a comment:

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