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Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

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  • #61
    Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by DSpencer View Post
    EJ,

    Can you provide any insight on the bolded part of your quote above? Specifically:

    1. How much gold is enough?
    I don't know. No one does. Calculations based on outstanding foreign obligations are useless because we can't know what the fractional value will be.

    2. How much gold do (or will) US citizens have?
    I have not seen any figures.

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

      Originally posted by EJ View Post
      I don't know. No one does. Calculations based on outstanding foreign obligations are useless because we can't know what the fractional value will be.
      Agreed on not knowing, but useless seems a bit strong. The various calculations do provide at least a large ball park in which to judge others estimates or make one's own estimates or best guesses.


      Here's another take on gold value:

      http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

        Hey bart -- interesting graph. Possible to show with inflation-adjusted gold price?

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

          Originally posted by EJ View Post
          I don't know. No one does. Calculations based on outstanding foreign obligations are useless because we can't know what the fractional value will be.



          I have not seen any figures.
          Thank you.

          I have tried to find data on how much was sold due to Executive order 6102. According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102:

          Approximately 500 tonnes of gold were sold to the U.S. Treasury in 1933 at the rate of $20.67 per troy ounce.[12]
          The source is listed as:
          • ^ Time Magazine, Monday, Nov. 27, 1933.

          I didn't have a subscription at that time though, so I can't verify.

          I have no idea how to find out what people own now though. It seems like it would have to be very substantial to make it worth asking people to sell it to the treasury. Also they don't have the same way of just revaluing it, although maybe that's not needed.

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

            Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post
            Hey bart -- interesting graph. Possible to show with inflation-adjusted gold price?
            Good idea, see the new thin gold line. The 1980 top was just over $4,000.
            http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

              Originally posted by bart View Post
              Good idea, see the new thin gold line. The 1980 top was just over $4,000.
              Yeeeeooowww....I thought I'd know the results, but to look at this, gold should moonshoot or the index should plunge.

              Looks like the pot may boil over one way or the other -- soon.

              Thanks for this.
              Last edited by jpatter666; 10-19-11, 01:29 PM. Reason: added word

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              • #67
                Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                Originally posted by sishya View Post
                EJ,

                I agree with EJ that U.S. will re-open the gold window, but when that happens the paper Gold market(LBMA/COMEX)
                will not exist. At this time the price of Gold paper futures/ETF will trade at zero(because irredeemable by Govt "force Major") while Gold price
                will be unknown for a short period of time. miners will be taxed highly so that they can only make a small markup profit, because in effect they
                are producing wealth reserve.

                The problem is US citizens don't own much Gold to help this window.

                I believe we may find out that there have always been secret "accords" or an executive order that would force a "voluntary" loaning of physical gold by the gold funds back to the central banks in exchange for government bonds. The government may force redemption of US bullion coins at face value: $50/oz. But then, I'm sure I'm not being devious enough to really understand how it will be "explained" by the MSM.
                Last edited by photon555; 10-20-11, 01:44 AM.
                "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

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                • #68
                  gold backing: 100% or bust ?

                  we can't know what the fractional value will be.
                  If the currency backing is less than 100%, wouldn't the system be vulnerable to a run on the currency?
                  If the currency is not freely convertible to gold, who would trust it?
                  If backing is < 100%, wouldn't
                  the issuer print money and gradually lower the ratio?

                  The government wants seignorage, which only comes if the ratio < 100%.
                  But is seignorage really a good thing?

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                    Originally posted by bart View Post
                    Little clue what you mean by electronic currency, but total currency & coin is around $1.045T.

                    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WCURCIR
                    I was referring to the whole "debt is money thing" -- bank loans "creating money" that's not even backed by physical money, let alone gold. How do you back a currency with gold when that is happening?

                    I know that "currency" typically means "physical". But does that mean the 1' and 0's in my bank accounts would not be backed?

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                      Originally posted by photon555 View Post
                      I believe we may find out that there have always been secret "accords" or an executive order that would force a "voluntary" loaning of physical gold by the gold funds back to the central banks in exchange for government bonds. The government may force redemption of US bullion coins at face value: $50/oz. But then, I'm sure I'm not being devious enough to really understand how it will be "explained" by the MSM.
                      Or you may get to keep your gold, but the tax rate could be 50% or more on sales, wiping out any real gains against inflation.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                        Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
                        Or you may get to keep your gold, but the tax rate could be 50% or more on sales, wiping out any real gains against inflation.
                        I think that's a far more likely scenario than confiscation.

                        Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                          Originally posted by shiny! View Post
                          I think that's a far more likely scenario than confiscation.
                          Agreed. A key consideration in my logic is that even if it is legally simple to confiscate US-denominated bullion still traceably located within US borders, doing so would ignore those who held gold in the form of bars, Krugerrands, or other national denominations, as well as those who held coins in a less-than traceable form (safe-deposit boxes, etc.) or overseas. Setting aside arguments of legality, it simply wouldn't achieve the likely objectives of confiscation, even if that were desirable.

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                          • #73
                            Re: Essential Trends - Part I-A: Gold in an Era of Global Monetary System Regime Change - Eric Janszen

                            Ron Paul?

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