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The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

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  • D-Mack
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    ηdrawgreek.gif

    it goes down, up and down again

    Why not use it when, when it's in your headline?

    Leave a comment:


  • jimmygu3
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    You should read Petrov's other original work, like Ka-Blammo Theory and The Adjustable-Wrench Dollar. ;)

    Leave a comment:


  • FRED
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by CanuckinTX View Post
    I'm no Greek scholar but thanks to a google search that isn't the symbol for the Greek letter Eta.

    If he's going to steal someone's work he should be a bit more thorough about it!
    Bagged by eagle eyed iTulipers!

    "Until then we will continue in the shape of ɥ."

    Hey, Petrov.


    You mean like this?

    Leave a comment:


  • jpatter666
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Ha, you are right! Well, I guess saying "cheh" would have stretched the plagiarism a little too far? :-P

    Leave a comment:


  • CanuckinTX
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    I'm no Greek scholar but thanks to a google search that isn't the symbol for the Greek letter Eta.

    If he's going to steal someone's work he should be a bit more thorough about it!

    Leave a comment:


  • jpatter666
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Someone has been reading iTulip! Better late than never I guess.... :-)

    "So, we finally arrive to the shape of the current recovery. The current economic recession will have the shape of the Greek letter Eta. It will look like this – ɥ."

    http://www.financialsense.com/contri...e-eta-recovery

    Leave a comment:


  • touchring
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
    FYI - an interesting dynamic:

    If the US is attempting to weaken the dollar - then one possible goal for the BRIC financiers to work toward is selling their own currencies in order to keep the relative exchange rates even (i.e. negate all or some of the US dollar weakening).

    Ironically while this does serve to keep the dollar from weakening as quickly as it should, on the other hand these extra dollars can then be used to disintermediate the US from its own currency.

    After all, the US dollars being 'quantitatively eased' are mostly stuck in big US banks. For the importers/exporters, small businesses, etc etc the dollar squeeze in the form of credit squeeze still exists.

    I'm still considering what this means if true.

    China is in worst shape that the US. They will never let the dollar depreciate against the yuan. You know they don't have social security in China, when it is impossible to find another job, workers will rather kill their managers if there are layoffs.
    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11091

    If the US wants to devalue the dollar, it will have to find some other ways - such as imposing a subsidy on exports or...... a tax on imports. ;)
    Last edited by touchring; 08-01-09, 05:35 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • metalman
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    i get the idea... we know < 1% of it...

    Leave a comment:


  • EJ
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Ghent12 View Post
    With respect, sir, your friend appears to have been quite unprofessional in those instances with the Navy Commander. There are a thousand and one ways to pursue a story, and this way was a poor choice.
    I've known Carol for 30 years. I am sure she was disrespectful, profane, and utterly ruthless in her pursuit of this story. I can try to second guess her reasons for taking the approach she did, but I trust her judgment.

    Real journalism is not a knitting circle. Few people have any idea what goes into getting a real story, versus the advertising we see every day posing as journalism. One in a million has the stomach for it.

    I have never known her to go after a good guy. Every institution has bad guys, even the Navy.

    This story will be great for Carol. Her outstanding record will come to light.

    My father was a Navy man, by the way. Ran away from home in 1924 when he was 17, lied about his age, and joined. Later, during WWII, he returned to the Navy to design and test torpedoes in Panama. Had some great stories.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ghent12
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    Harry Markopolos is an unusual case. He chose to stay out of sight.

    Ross Kerber, an excellent reporter for The Boston Globe, wrote this story on Harry back in January.
    The whistleblower

    Dogged pursuer of Madoff wary of fame

    A month ago, Harry Markopolos was an accountant unknown outside Boston's financial community.

    Now the slight, bookish 52-year-old from Whitman is under siege. Christmas week, he spent Monday being interviewed by "60 Minutes," Tuesday preparing to testify in Washington, and Wednesday sorting through pitches from book authors and movie producers. His mother-in-law now answers the door at his suburban stucco house and shoos away the reporters who knock at all hours.

    Markopolos is hoping the buzz around him will soon die down so he can resume a low profile. He now works on whistleblower cases, conducting forensic accounting analyses for attorneys who sue companies under the False Claims Act and other statutes, which he said is best done with a certain degree of anonymity.

    Ross wrote a story on me years ago. He's old school, tough and rigorous.

    Speaking of reporters I know, my old college pal Carol Rosenberg is getting herself into trouble again.
    Military and Media Clash In Complaint

    Navy Spokesman Alleges Abuse by Miami Reporter

    By Howard Kurtz
    Washington Post Staff Writer

    Saturday, July 25, 2009

    Tensions between journalists and military officials are nothing new. But a bitter series of clashes between a top Navy spokesman and a Miami Herald military reporter reached a new, eye-opening level this week.

    In a letter to the paper's editor, Cmdr. Jeffrey Gordon accused Carol Rosenberg of "multiple incidents of abusive and degrading comments of an explicitly sexual nature." Gordon, who deals primarily with the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, prison, said in the letter that this was a "formal sexual harassment complaint" and asked the Herald for a "thorough investigation."

    "Her behavior has been so atrocious over the years," Gordon said in an interview. "I've been abused worse than the detainees have been abused."
    I'll know that financial reporters in the U.S. are starting to do their jobs when a Goldman Sachs executive files a complaint against a financial reporter.



    I'm not holdng my breath.
    With respect, sir, your friend appears to have been quite unprofessional in those instances with the Navy Commander. There are a thousand and one ways to pursue a story, and this way was a poor choice.

    Leave a comment:


  • EJ
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by babbittd View Post
    Harry Markopolos (on the SEC)...
    Harry Markopolos is an unusual case. He chose to stay out of sight.

    Ross Kerber, an excellent reporter for The Boston Globe, wrote this story on Harry back in January.
    The whistleblower

    Dogged pursuer of Madoff wary of fame

    A month ago, Harry Markopolos was an accountant unknown outside Boston's financial community.

    Now the slight, bookish 52-year-old from Whitman is under siege. Christmas week, he spent Monday being interviewed by "60 Minutes," Tuesday preparing to testify in Washington, and Wednesday sorting through pitches from book authors and movie producers. His mother-in-law now answers the door at his suburban stucco house and shoos away the reporters who knock at all hours.

    Markopolos is hoping the buzz around him will soon die down so he can resume a low profile. He now works on whistleblower cases, conducting forensic accounting analyses for attorneys who sue companies under the False Claims Act and other statutes, which he said is best done with a certain degree of anonymity.

    Ross wrote a story on me years ago. He's old school, tough and rigorous.

    Speaking of reporters I know, my old college pal Carol Rosenberg is getting herself into trouble again.
    Military and Media Clash In Complaint

    Navy Spokesman Alleges Abuse by Miami Reporter

    By Howard Kurtz
    Washington Post Staff Writer

    Saturday, July 25, 2009

    Tensions between journalists and military officials are nothing new. But a bitter series of clashes between a top Navy spokesman and a Miami Herald military reporter reached a new, eye-opening level this week.

    In a letter to the paper's editor, Cmdr. Jeffrey Gordon accused Carol Rosenberg of "multiple incidents of abusive and degrading comments of an explicitly sexual nature." Gordon, who deals primarily with the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, prison, said in the letter that this was a "formal sexual harassment complaint" and asked the Herald for a "thorough investigation."

    "Her behavior has been so atrocious over the years," Gordon said in an interview. "I've been abused worse than the detainees have been abused."
    I'll know that financial reporters in the U.S. are starting to do their jobs when a Goldman Sachs executive files a complaint against a financial reporter.



    I'm not holdng my breath.

    Leave a comment:


  • Slimprofits
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    Down the memory hole they go. Within months, the events of the Cramer’s ear boxing, Bill Black’s warning, and Johnson’s epiphany will join those of last year’s winners of “So You Think You Can Dance?” in America’s collective gnat memory.
    Harry Markopolos (on the SEC)...

    Leave a comment:


  • BlackVoid
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    If the markets do crash, that should crash oil prices as well in my opinion.

    If that happens I plan to go long on oil with as much money as I can (which is not that much).

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    In a very real sense we are now in the mind mode that creates all those tiny upward movements in a long downtrend graph. Timing is everything. If you take the long term view, you will, as EJ seems to point, sit and wait with your funds in a position of least risk until certainty flushes over the current sentiment. However, if you are in it for the fun and games then taking the risk of stabbing at when and where is all a part of the fun. Some will win but many will, inevitably, lose out.

    Leave a comment:


  • WildspitzE
    replied
    Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by ASH View Post
    Broadly speaking, I think that would be consistent with EJ's view that:
    We are convinced that the markets have another big crash in the wings, as the Fed experiments with ways to reverse its creative anti-deflation policies in an environment of fiscal stimulus/deficit spending fueled economic growth, and that the rally off March 2009 lows has been driven first by technicals, then by sentiment, and most recently by funds who cannot be seen by their clients sitting in the dust behind funds that got into the rally early.

    I don't personally trade on margin. If you choose to short stocks with high p/e ratios, I think you will accept significant risk related to your timing. The part of this essay that I zeroed in on says that the Fed is likely to trigger a further market crash, and that fundamentals won't sustain the recent rally, but it doesn't necessarily say when the Fed will stumble into this action, or when the market will realize that it is treading on air. (One possible clue is the timing of stimulus spending, but that's not exactly bullet-proof.) In my opinion, the essay doesn't give timing advice that is tradeable by selling stocks short, with acceptible risk.

    I am a novice investor, but my perception of the risk involved is that if one is inclined to speculate on the market falling in response to future actions of the Fed (or simply the failure of hope in the face of fundamentals), then long-dated options contracts are to be preferred over trading on margin. But, as I say elsewhere, I'm not the right guy to be giving you trading advice. I'm simply the guy who's willing to take a stab at answering your question.
    while not the same, and littered with it's own risks and flaws, another approach is to look at it by sector/industry. analyze the sectors that have the high p/e ratios, or whatever signals that you're looking for, but that have inverse etfs available against them.

    just spit ballin' alternatives for shits and giggles, not making any recommendations.

    Leave a comment:

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