globaleconomicollaps

I'm writing today to talk about the paper I saw here:
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...inflation.html

It says something I want to take issue with.

So the prospects for 2012 and thereafter are for TMS to continue its hyperbolic trend...

this is a graph I made to illustrate my point:


Notice in the article that Alasdair Macleod doesn't draw a hyperbola through the true money supply graph. He insinuates that it is possible to draw such a graph, but he doesn't actually do it. that is because it would be immediately apparent that the fit is not as good as a simple exponential. Also I have tested this idea and although the recent movement is similar to a hyperbola, if you had made the same statement in 2005 you would have drawn the green curve. To my eye this is much closer to the data up to that point. See the green vertical line in about 2013? That is the vertical asymptote. It means that the currency "explodes" in mid 2013. The red line has the "explosion" date at mid 2019. He does the same analysis for the gold price. I also eyeball the exact same issue for the gold price sharp rise in 1979-80. Note that all these curves are essentially a perfect fit to the data.

My takeaway from this is that this is not a good way to do data analysis. Fitting a curve to data should produce roughly the same curve for a large part of the curve as for the whole thing. The exponential is changing over time, but not by much. We need a better model for high or hyperinflation.