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pianodoctor

  1. What is EJ's/Itulip's Position on Health Care Costs in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    While the decision to reduce the size of the Federal government is a political decision, under our system of private credit leveraged economic growth the decision to reduce Federal government spending is not a political decision but a factor of the mechanics and structure of the economy. As government size tends to follow from spending decisions, until the need to increase private or public debt to grow the economy is addressed there can be no reduction in Federal government spending or the size
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  2. Fed craves inflation--why?

    Quote Originally Posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
    We need inflation, according to the Fed way of thinking, particularly in a FIRE economy because deflation increases the real value of nominal debts, and increases insolvency. Falling prices raise real wages (sticky) and lower labor demand - profitability for corporations goes down and investment goes down. An ordinary recession might turn catastrophic in an environment of over-indebtedness. Real rates also go up also exacerbating aggregate demand. The experience of the U.S. has conditioned policy
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  3. iTulip Portfolio Strategy – Section 1, Part II: The Devil’s in the Details - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    Readers want to know why my postings have become so infrequent. I can either pretend that I see some other outcome or I can figure out a way to explain what I see that doesn't sound as if the situation is hopeless, which way I have not yet devised.

    But it is harder to not to see it than it is to see it.

    Oil first made war unexpectedly terrible.

    Then wars were fought for access to oil, for economic advantage.

    Finally wars will be fought desperately
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  4. iTulip Portfolio Strategy – Section 1, Part II: The Devil’s in the Details - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    We are deep into an investigation of the implications of the Output Gap Trap that we identified last fall. With several quarters of actual economic performance to compare to our forecasts, the analysis has led to a depressing conclusion. The reason we are having such difficulty devising a portfolio strategy for the next ten years is that, in my opinion, the decade will include a world war.

    Here's the argument, still a work in progress.


    The last recession created
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  5. Global Monetary Meltdown - Part II: The first inflation, but not the last - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    If I've learned nothing else from running this site for these past 13 years, it's that if I simply come out with the answer, of a specific number for an event years off into the future, and an argument for it, by the time the event occurs the number may be remembered but the argument will have been forgotten, or confused with dozens of similar copycat arguments that sound similar but, as in the game of Telephone, have lost the original meaning of the original argument.

    The heart of
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