View Full Version : U.S. households, asset mix and positions
U.S. households, asset mix and positions
The results of some recent efforts with the Fed's quarterly Z1 publication. I was somewhat surprised by the quick reactions of some in switching into more cash & bond positions, although some of the change is just due to lower assets & bet worth in general.
Note that the latest numbers are from the period ended 10/1/2008, so the current data would show a worse picture overall. The next update will be in June for quarter ending 1/1/2008.
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_asset_liab.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_asset_mix.png </center>
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_stocks.png
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_bonds.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_checking.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_credit.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_equity.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_mortgages.png </center>
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_net_worth1952-current.png
</center>
Thanks Bart. Great charts. Am I wrong to interpret them as J6P being fleeced and taking a hit in home equity but not withdrawing completely from the market casino?
Thanks Bart. Great charts. Am I wrong to interpret them as J6P being fleeced and taking a hit in home equity but not withdrawing completely from the market casino?
You're welcome, and thanks. Your interpretation is certainly valid and workable... and I just realized that I missed one chart, the one for stocks and mutual funds. Here it is:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_stocks.png
WildspitzE
04-26-09, 07:03 PM
Great charts Bart, thanks.
You're welcome, and thanks. Your interpretation is certainly valid and workable... and I just realized that I missed one chart, the one for stocks and mutual funds. Here it is:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_stocks.png
Wow, thanks Bart. It would be interesting to have chart for stock portfolio of US households adjusted for Dow and S&P ;)
Wow, thanks Bart. It would be interesting to have chart for stock portfolio of US households adjusted for Dow and S&P ;)
Your choice:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/smokey_law_respect.wav
or
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/aaagh.wav
or both... ;)
Thanks Bart. Great charts. Am I wrong to interpret them as J6P being fleeced and taking a hit in home equity but not withdrawing completely from the market casino?
This has nothing to do with J6P -- J6P does not play in this league!
See - U.S. Wealth Distribution Data (1998) (http://tiger.berkeley.edu/sohrab/politics/wealthdist.html) -- Since then things have become much worse for J6P
This has nothing to do with J6P -- J6P does not play in this league!
See - U.S. Wealth Distribution Data (1998) (http://tiger.berkeley.edu/sohrab/politics/wealthdist.html) -- Since then things have become much worse for J6P
Good point - I was assuming J6P went all the way up into the mid 20% area. The bottom 40% sure doesn't have anything in stocks.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/household_net_worth_by_wealth_class_log.png
Your choice:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/smokey_law_respect.wav
or
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/aaagh.wav
or both... ;)
Well, I'm addicted to your charts, so please don't get upset if I tried to obtain another one... I'll take both :)
This has nothing to do with J6P -- J6P does not play in this league!
See - U.S. Wealth Distribution Data (1998) (http://tiger.berkeley.edu/sohrab/politics/wealthdist.html) -- Since then things have become much worse for J6P
Good catch Rajiv. Mea culpa. That was a poor choice of words used for defining the individual investor (which is not J6P). At least we got another chart from bart :)
Well, I'm addicted to your charts, so please don't get upset if I tried to obtain another one... I'll take both :)
Here's a refill for your "prescription" ;)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/silly_chart.jpg
Good catch Rajiv. Mea culpa. That was a poor choice of words used for defining the individual investor (which is not J6P). At least we got another chart from bart :)
And another new chart - I'm going for the economics wonk cluster for my tinfoil hat. ;)
Senior loan officer survey, not as wonky as it may sound (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9627)
<center> http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/household_net_worth1952-current.png
</center>
This last one I find interesting. Using the real-inflation adjusted data shows that almost all the fluff has been unwound since the game started in the 80's. This is almost bullish. Unless you think households are poorer than then, which is plausible.
Nice graphs, Bart.
This last one I find interesting. Using the real-inflation adjusted data shows that almost all the fluff has been unwound since the game started in the 80's. This is almost bullish. Unless you think households are poorer than then, which is plausible.
Nice graphs, Bart.
Thanks *T*, looks like my ongoing efforts to clean up the charting style are helping their clarity.
As far as the chart, as Newton said - "An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
A Case Shiller update for February prices comes out tomorrow, for what its worth.
Here's a refill for your "prescription" ;)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/silly_chart.jpg
Thanks bart. This latest chart is great. It describes accurately how the Fed has created the excess reserves and ballooned the BASE through Circle Jerk FInance.:)
And another new chart - I'm going for the economics wonk cluster for my tinfoil hat. ;)
Senior loan officer survey, not as wonky as it may sound (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9627)
That was great bart and learned something new.
What I find amazing and surreal is how easy is for the Fed to manipulate the market, when a careful and non superficial examination can destroy the deception with ease. Sometimes I'm thinking the majority of people just loves to be deceived and fleeced. OK, enough for now. I'm going to watch on youtube a clip from Britain Got Talent 2009 and I'll end the day with a tivoed Nancy Grace.
And another new chart - I'm going for the economics wonk cluster for my tinfoil hat. ;)
Senior loan officer survey, not as wonky as it may sound (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9627)
That was great bart and learned something new.
What I find amazing and surreal is how easy is for the Fed to manipulate the market, when a careful and non superficial examination can destroy the deception with ease. Sometimes I'm thinking the majority of people just loves to be deceived and fleeced. OK, enough for now. I'm going to watch on youtube a clip from Britain Got Talent 2009 and I'll end the day with a tivoed Nancy Grace.
This is probably as good a time as any to note that one man's manipulation is another man's benign control, somewhat like I noted in my various articles on ECB and their gold sales and buys. I could actually do a rant in the anti tinfoil hat area, and there's some truth in it too... and obviously in the lack of desire or ability to see what's truly going on in the lives of very many too, a rather extreme example of which being how some people stay in atrociously abusive relationships for long periods of time.
More power to pleasant diversion like Youtube these days. I "wasted" a few hours yesterday myself with a potpourri of great music from the '20s through the '80s - very mellow.
And personally, the Red Fox (Liz Claman) is far more of a fascinating babe than Nancy Grace. ;)
This is probably as good a time as any to note that one man's manipulation is another man's benign control, somewhat like I noted in my various articles on ECB and their gold sales and buys. I could actually do a rant in the anti tinfoil hat area, and there's some truth in it too... and obviously in the lack of desire or ability to see what's truly going on in the lives of very many too, a rather extreme example of which being how some people stay in atrociously abusive relationships for long periods of time.
Did you manage to get a look at Walter Burien and CAFR? That is another another huge tin foil hat matter!
Thanks *T*, looks like my ongoing efforts to clean up the charting style are helping their clarity.
Yes, they are! I wasn't sure whether to comment on it or not though.
Some still have too many lines (one or two ideas per graph please) but they are pretty good examples of the genre these days.
Yes, they are! I wasn't sure whether to comment on it or not though.
Some still have too many lines (one or two ideas per graph please) but they are pretty good examples of the genre these days.
Thanks.
So you'd rather see, for example on the 2nd chart in the series, 3 or 4 charts instead of just one with all the data series?
Have you ever experimented with multidimensional charts?
I recall having done some nice 3D charts in Excel back some 10 years ago when I was involved in genetical research / statistics.
In the correct situation (i.e., where 3D is motivated) it's like "a 3D picture is worth a thousand 2D pictures", sort of.
Thanks.
So you'd rather see, for example on the 2nd chart in the series, 3 or 4 charts instead of just one with all the data series?
For clarity, two points per chart is enough IMHO.
Have you ever experimented with multidimensional charts?
I recall having done some nice 3D charts in Excel back some 10 years ago when I was involved in genetical research / statistics.
In the correct situation (i.e., where 3D is motivated) it's like "a 3D picture is worth a thousand 2D pictures", sort of.
Interesting and cool idea, and I just spent some time looking around Excel and also for 3D capable add-ins -- and pretty much struck out.
There seems to be a limitation of 4,000 data points, and there apparently are also issues with perspective distortion (leading to a sort of optical illusion where the data looks wrong) when the rotation or elevation functions are used much.
Now this is interesting. Schiller says investors should go into stocks and real estate :eek:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=a_VRNwDoMsuA
Investors Should Buy Stocks, Real Estate, Yale’s Shiller Says
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By Jeff Kearns
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should brave the [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VIX%3AIND"]risk (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&sid=a_VRNwDoMsuA#) of “economic chaos” and buy stocks and real estate, said Yale University professor Robert Shiller (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Shiller&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), whose 2000 book “Irrational Exuberance” predicted the market’s collapse.
“I’m less pessimistic than I was a few months ago,” Shiller said of U.S. equities in an interview in New York. “The price-earnings ratio is about average (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND), and by that you might say it sounds like one should be in the market and have a balanced portfolio that has a good share of stocks.”
[...]
Shiller, who helped create the S&P/Case-Shiller (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20%3AIND) home price index, warned in an August 2006 interview that there was a “significant probability” that housing market declines would accelerate and push the U.S. economy into a recession. He said today that an increase in pending home sales (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USPHTMOM%3AIND) in March and February’s drop in properties on the market are “positive” signals for U.S. housing prices.
“Having a good fraction of your portfolio in stocks, not zero, is probably sensible now,” he said. “People should be in real estate as well because that has a chance of rebounding. It has to be about diversification, about spreading risks.”
[...]
The S&P 500’s advance (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND) from a 12-year low during the last two months may falter because unemployment is rising, he said. Joblessness (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) in the U.S. is projected to have risen to 8.9 percent in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“The big thing is that we don’t know,” Shiller said in an interview at The New Yorker Summit: The Next 100 Days. “We could have a huge rally like the 1933 to 1937 rally. That happened in the middle of a depression so it could happen now.”
[...]
“The unemployment rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) is probably going to go up substantially more, we’re going to have more economic chaos, confidence will come back to a lower level again,” Shiller said. “It’s still a seriously cloudy picture and there’s substantial risk of further substantial home price and further stock price declines.”
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