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billstew
04-08-09, 07:51 AM
Would a JPM Chase collapse cost 100 ... 200 Trillion?

I would have to add it to my US Total Cumulative Debt Guesstimate model, and that would take some re-modeling. Currently the cumulative debt per household is 2.25 m USD.

I am assuming only 10% to 20% of global derivatives going bad, and JPMC only being important in holding 10% of all derivatives. To me this is an oddball conjecture as I am not fully versed in guesstimating this kind of stuff.

The FFTs on derivative ownership is unknown, so this is pure guesstimate territory.

Anyway, your thoughts on this...

Jay
04-08-09, 08:04 AM
Would a JPM Chase collapse cost 100 ... 200 Trillion?

I would have to add it to my US Total Cumulative Debt Guesstimate model, and that would take some re-modeling. Currently the cumulative debt per household is 2.25 m USD.

I am assuming only 10% to 20% of global derivatives going bad, and JPMC only being important in holding 10% of all derivatives. To me this is an oddball conjecture as I am not fully versed in guesstimating this kind of stuff.

The FFTs on derivative ownership is unknown, so this is pure guesstimate territory.

Anyway, your thoughts on this...
Isn't the NET the most important issue when trying to factor in the derivatives cost?

billstew
04-08-09, 08:26 AM
Isn't the NET the most important issue when trying to factor in the derivatives cost?

I am new at this kind of modeling work -- and the above is deep in the guesstimate zone. If NET is the correct way to look at the problem, then so be it. That said, what I am suggesting is modeling work beyond my ability to use my spreadsheet at the moment ...

Jay
04-08-09, 08:31 AM
I am new at this kind of modeling work -- and the above is deep in the guesstimate zone. If NET is the correct way to look at the problem, then so be it. That said, what I am suggesting is modeling work beyond my ability to use my spreadsheet at the moment ...
Well it's way beyond me too. :D And probably most everyone else!

*T*
04-08-09, 09:40 AM
Isn't the NET the most important issue when trying to factor in the derivatives cost?

Net is correct until your counterparty looks like it may default. Then the principal is important.

*T*
04-08-09, 09:41 AM
Would a JPM Chase collapse cost 100 ... 200 Trillion?

I would have to add it to my US Total Cumulative Debt Guesstimate model, and that would take some re-modeling. Currently the cumulative debt per household is 2.25 m USD.

I am assuming only 10% to 20% of global derivatives going bad, and JPMC only being important in holding 10% of all derivatives. To me this is an oddball conjecture as I am not fully versed in guesstimating this kind of stuff.

The FFTs on derivative ownership is unknown, so this is pure guesstimate territory.

Anyway, your thoughts on this...

Numbers that big are meaningless. If JPM & GS go down that is the end of the US govt & system, they are so closely tied at the hip.