View Full Version : Why is the gold price declining...
...perhaps this is part of the answer?
No gold import; India's March gold export at 9 tons (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/No-gold-import;-Indias-March-gold-export-at-9-tons-16664-3-1.html)
MUMBAI: All these years, India prided itself as the world’s biggest gold importer. But it looks as countries like China are going to overtake India in the import of gold, India in turn is turning an exporter of gold.
According to the Bombay Bullion Association, India managed to export about 9 tonnes of gold coins in February and March. "India's domestic gold prices were about 3 to 4 percent lower than the import cost. So some of the traders bought gold from the local markets and converted them into coins and exported it," the Association said.
The Reserve bank of India restricts gold exports by traders in bullion market as its impacts the partially convertible rupee.
Last week, the Association reported that for a second month in row, India imported no gold, even though the country is the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal.
”Part from high gold prices, people seem to have pushed forward their plans to purchase jewellery due to the growing uncertainty in global and Indian markets which has led to large scale retrenchments across sectors,” says economic analyst Manasee S. Gokhale who works with India’s second largest commodity bourse the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange.
He said March has been the second month where not a single tonne of gold has been imported in March against the 21 tonnes of gold imports during the same period last year.
Imports of the yellow metal to India—the largest consumer and importers of gold in the world—are all set plunge to the lowest levels for the decade in 2009.
In 2008, India’s gold imports dipped by 45 per cent to touch 450 tons. Bullion analysts have already predicted earlier this month that if gold imports continue to be sluggish, India’s gold imports will fall 380 tonnes in 2009.
”Gold imports are plunging thanks to the economic conditions that India is finding in these days. We expect overall imports below 380 tonnes for 2009," Vishal Patel, sales trader, India and Middle East, Commerzbank International, had told Commodity Online early this month.
Analysts like Patel and the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) said that for the first time in this decade, gold imports to India are going to take a big hit...
I think there is a simple explanation : gold has become expensive and people are waiting for it to become cheaper. In the US and EU, gold is being used as a crisis hedge, since the average citizen is fearful for his job, his bank account, and his house. In India, though the market has crashed, and real estate is off its peak, the same sense of doom is not there..yet.
it's plausible that india's gold market would be less affected by the financial crisis which has been going on for a while, than it will be by the economic crisis which is still in the early innings.
metalman
04-06-09, 11:11 AM
fred posted this on mega's 'gold getting killed' thread...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/../images/goldkilledagain.gif
Note to iTulip newbees: iTulip does not cater to the attention deficit disorder trading crowd. There's a big difference between a thesis and a market call de jour.
let's review the 2001 itulip thesis...
- the usa has unsustainable debt levels that will lead to a debt crisis
- gov'ts always, always, always print their way out of a debt crisis
- gov'ts hang onto gold as reserves since 1971 even though gold is not officially a monetary unit. why? because they are hedging the collapse of there debt-based money system and curencies.
has anything changed since then? no. in fact the debt crisis forecast has happened.
the gov't printing its way out of the crisis has happened.
all we have left to wait for is the currency crisis.
It's going down so I can buy more.
fred posted this on mega's 'gold getting killed' thread...
let's review the 2001 itulip thesis...
- the usa has unsustainable debt levels that will lead to a debt crisis
- gov'ts always, always, always print their way out of a debt crisis
- gov'ts hang onto gold as reserves since 1971 even though gold is not officially a monetary unit. why? because they are hedging the collapse of there debt-based money system and curencies.
has anything changed since then? no. in fact the debt crisis forecast has happened.
the gov't printing its way out of the crisis has happened.
all we have left to wait for is the currency crisis.
I just posted this for a laugh...:D
So many, including the World Gold Council, foolishly think that gold lives or dies based on Indian jewelry sales, and the "wedding season"...:p
I'll bet many of those same people think that Central Banks exist to promote price stability...
Lukester
04-06-09, 09:17 PM
WHY ISN'T MY GOLD GOING UP!!?? :mad: :confused: :mad: :confused: :mad: (:p)
metalman
04-06-09, 09:21 PM
WHY ISN'T MY GOLD GOING UP!!?? :mad: :confused: :mad: :confused: :mad: (:p)
LIKE MY PROPERTY TAX BILLS??? :(:(:(:mad::mad::mad:
:D:D:D
Just wait 'till they impose an asset tax on gold, then you get the best of both worlds. :eek:
Sweden used to have a "wealth tax", and still does have what's amusingly called a "profits tax" on private pension plans - the guvm'nt takes 1% of your capital each year, even in down years.
Gold goes down because sellers are more urgent to sell than buyers are willing to buy? (Duuhh?):o
Anyway, here is a Technical Update from one of the best chart technicians in the United States.
His calls on Gold for the past three + years have been excellent.
Just wait 'till they impose an asset tax on gold, then you get the best of both worlds. :eek:
Sweden used to have a "wealth tax", and still does have what's amusingly called a "profits tax" on private pension plans - the guvm'nt takes 1% of your capital each year, even in down years.
In the U.S. annual tax tab is 5% for pension funds.
rogermexico
05-29-09, 09:07 PM
In the U.S. annual tax tab is 5% for pension funds.
Fred, are you saying that this is an annual tax on pension assets at the corporate level?
That would be hard to believe. Please elaborate.
ThePythonicCow
05-30-09, 01:41 AM
In the U.S. annual tax tab is 5% for pension funds.
Huh? I concur with Rogermexico's request - kindly elaborate.
Just a guess, but inflation?
the "private pension plans" I named are the Swedish IRA equivalents, not funds. The fiduciary deducts the guvm'nts take each year, you see it on the statement but can't do anything about it.
Lukester
06-03-09, 11:03 AM
I'm looking for a big wipeout in the entire commodities space in the next couple of weeks. Gold and silver hinting at what's to come. Dollar firming. Yum yum. "Shopping season" approaches!
1676
1677
dummass
06-03-09, 08:58 PM
Did you buy more? I did!
metalman
06-03-09, 09:08 PM
I'm looking for a big wipeout in the entire commodities space in the next couple of weeks. Gold and silver hinting at what's to come. Dollar firming. Yum yum. "Shopping season" approaches!
1676
1677
has anyone ever answered the question... why are gold and silver prices at times tied so closely?
Lukester
06-04-09, 01:30 AM
Hey Dummass,
How difficult would it be for me to mosey down to Panama City and open a checking account? I'm planning to scout around in Central America for a small cottage with a bit of land, and I've got Panama and Ecuador on my gotta check-out list. Panama's banking would be a prime draw. Can you advise best way to look into that?
Any pointers would be appreciated.
Lukester
Did you buy more? I did!
Tybee Island
06-04-09, 04:46 AM
I bought more too, and will continue to, I have been scaling ever larger into numismatics as of late and really like the price appreciation I am seeing over bullion (of which I have mucho).
dummass
06-04-09, 05:02 AM
A quick search will turn up dozens of law firms that specialize in this sort of thing; it's an industry here. Not sure I would trust any of them.
Banking rules are strict, especially since 9/11. If you carry a US passport, forget it. Otherwise, you will need to provide the standard documentation: proof of funds, letters from other banksters, and all the other "know your customer" nonsense.
It's no different here than anywhere. If they tell you otherwise, it is probably a con.
has anyone ever answered the question... why are gold and silver prices at times tied so closely?
COMEX?
One can only hope that in a fit of self-preservation, the "market" does the right thing and tries to save itself by repatriating gold.
That would be something! Simultaneous dollar repatriation (back home to US) with gold repatriation (to foreign holders overseas), would that not indeed lead to a pretty big POOM?
Me thinks so.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1244050251.php
On May 28th, the night before the White House taping, Jim Willie of Goldenjackass.com posted an article called “The Hitman Cometh” where he claimed the Germans are trying to withdraw all their physical gold from US control and several “hit men” have been hired to take down the COMEX and the LME:
"The Germans have demanded that gold bullion held in US custodial accounts be returned to their owners, with physical gold shipped back to Germany ."
I'll bet my last gold Kruggie that the Oval Office phone call was a desperate plea to buy more time before the Germans destroy the physical gold manipulation scheme.
has anyone ever answered the question... why are gold and silver prices at times tied so closely?
Since 1967, their daily correlation is about .91.
BiscayneSunrise
06-04-09, 09:18 AM
I'm looking for a big wipeout in the entire commodities space in the next couple of weeks. Gold and silver hinting at what's to come. Dollar firming. Yum yum. "Shopping season" approaches!
Lukester, I am getting the same sense. June is historically the second weakest month for the Dow. And I'm sure everyone one remembers the commodity crash in June 2006.
Some charts for commodity related equities were starting to go parabolic. Not healthy. Time to see a pullback and proper bases to be formed.
I'm still holding but I'm getting nervous as a cat. Whenever that happens, it is time to take profits. Will be watching more closely than ever.
Lukester
06-04-09, 01:32 PM
Dummass - Thanks for the input but could you clarify this? I carry a US passport. You are saying I will be turned away for a bank account at most major banks in Panama on that grounds alone? And if that's not the case, what "letters from other banksters" do I require?
Signed - "Bewildered" on opening foreign accts. - in So Cal.
If you carry a US passport, forget it. Otherwise, you will need to provide the standard documentation: proof of funds, letters from other banksters, and all the other "know your customer" nonsense.
dummass
06-04-09, 03:19 PM
For the most part, banks in Panama are reluctant to do business with US residents; they invite too much scrutiny. One way for them to stay off the US "black list" is simply not to do business with US residents.
That said, it is possible. You will be required to provide the following: an electric bill or some other form of proof of residence with a local address; two forms of ID; bank references (no more than 30 days old); and proof of funds, showing where the money came from (a legal source, not drug profits).
If your interested, I will inquire with my bank and send you their requirements and contact information.
Lukester
06-04-09, 03:28 PM
Sure thing Dummass. I'd appreciate it. Maybe you can PM a contact to me with that?
Thanks and regards,
Lukester
For the most part, banks in Panama are reluctant to do business with US residents; they invite too much scrutiny. One way for them to stay off the US "black list" is simply not to do business with US residents.
That said, it is possible. You will be required to provide the following: an electric bill or some other form of proof of residence with a local address; two forms of ID; bank references (no more than 30 days old); and proof of funds, showing where the money came from (a legal source, not drug profits).
If your interested, I will inquire with my bank and send you their requirements and contact information.
metalman
06-04-09, 08:19 PM
Since 1967, their daily correlation is about .91.
thank you for the short, simple, and sane answer. :)
Lukester, I am getting the same sense. June is historically the second weakest month for the Dow. And I'm sure everyone one remembers the commodity crash in June 2006.
Some charts for commodity related equities were starting to go parabolic. Not healthy. Time to see a pullback and proper bases to be formed.
I'm still holding but I'm getting nervous as a cat. Whenever that happens, it is time to take profits. Will be watching more closely than ever.
According to Casey's June is the worst month for Gold and May is the best. My sense is that we are about to have a big decline in Gold, Silver and oil, though I am less certain about the latter. If I had larger balls I would short miners right now. But I do not. Instead, I will just wait for a better price at which to buy more bullion. To my mind this is the last big dip for Gold while under 1k. Though I admit I have not done enough research yet to have full confidence in this assessment.
metalman
06-04-09, 09:32 PM
According to Casey's June is the worst month for Gold and May is the best. My sense is that we are about to have a big decline in Gold, Silver and oil, though I am less certain about the latter. If I had larger balls I would short miners right now. But I do not. Instead, I will just wait for a better price at which to buy more bullion. To my mind this is the last big dip for Gold while under 1k. Though I admit I have not done enough research yet to have full confidence in this assessment.
as i've heard 354 people say the past few months that gold falls ever june, i say it hits all time highs this june... unlike any other... instead.
as i've heard 354 people say the past few months that gold falls ever june, i say it hits all time highs this june... unlike any other... instead.
That's what I'm talking about. And the miners go along for the ride.
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