Jim Nickerson
02-05-07, 10:43 PM
You take a five year Rip Van Winkle nap. You wake up in 2012 to find that the debt pyramid has indeed collapsed. Perhaps one of these scenarios will prevail.
Median Home Price: $450,000 ($225,000 today)
Median Household Income: $80,000 ($40,000 today)
30-Year FR Mortgage: 19.5% (6.14%)
Discount Rate: 18% (5.5%)
CPI: 20% (3% today)
Oil: $200/bl
Imported Car: $80,000 (One year's median income)
Domestic Car: $40,000 (One half year's median income)
Cup of Starbucks Coffee: $6 ($3.00 today)
Median Home Price: $100,000 ($225,000 today)
Median Household Income: $30,000 ($40,000 today)
30-Year FR Mortgage: 0.5% (6.14%)
Discount Rate: 0% (5.5%)
CPI: -4% (3% today)
Oil: $100/bl
Imported Chinese Car: $80,000 - due to 50% tarriff (One year's median income)
Domestic Car: $40,000 (One year's median income)
Cup of Starbucks Coffee: N/A - out of business ($3.00 today)
EJ did not say either of these would happen in his post # 15 in the thread Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=891 He offered them as possible extremes. In voting, the results would be more meaningful to vote in terms of the likelihood of things economic going more one way than the other, that is to say don't think either extreme will necessarily be reached in the entirety of EJ's imaginings.
Median Home Price: $450,000 ($225,000 today)
Median Household Income: $80,000 ($40,000 today)
30-Year FR Mortgage: 19.5% (6.14%)
Discount Rate: 18% (5.5%)
CPI: 20% (3% today)
Oil: $200/bl
Imported Car: $80,000 (One year's median income)
Domestic Car: $40,000 (One half year's median income)
Cup of Starbucks Coffee: $6 ($3.00 today)
Median Home Price: $100,000 ($225,000 today)
Median Household Income: $30,000 ($40,000 today)
30-Year FR Mortgage: 0.5% (6.14%)
Discount Rate: 0% (5.5%)
CPI: -4% (3% today)
Oil: $100/bl
Imported Chinese Car: $80,000 - due to 50% tarriff (One year's median income)
Domestic Car: $40,000 (One year's median income)
Cup of Starbucks Coffee: N/A - out of business ($3.00 today)
EJ did not say either of these would happen in his post # 15 in the thread Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=891 He offered them as possible extremes. In voting, the results would be more meaningful to vote in terms of the likelihood of things economic going more one way than the other, that is to say don't think either extreme will necessarily be reached in the entirety of EJ's imaginings.