Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January

[Rajiv]

Bart,

Your comments on this as well as on Chris Martenson's observations (http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/funding-nightmare-us/15148) on this would be appreciated

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January (http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg57.htm)

Rajiv

[*T*]

Bart,

Your comments on this as well as on Chris Martenson's observations (http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/funding-nightmare-us/15148) on this would be appreciated

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January (http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg57.htm)

Rajiv

Compare Setser (http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/) as always on the same topic.

[bart]

Bart,

Your comments on this as well as on Chris Martenson's observations (http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/funding-nightmare-us/15148) on this would be appreciated

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January (http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg57.htm)

Rajiv

I pretty much echo both Chris Martenson's and Brad Setser's views, and also note that it tracks well with EJ's points about both a larger gold position and a funding "crisis"... and of course my work in the Financial crisis tracking (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4662) thread.

The long term investment picture in TIC data shows a -$43b last month and an average -$10b flow per month the last three months. The shorter term flows picture shows a -$149b last month with an average -$5b flow per month the last three months - private flows are most of the net minus for shorter term flows, and official flows average +2.5b per month. The existing flow picture & trends aren't pretty.



Here's another view of the general flow area showing long term TIC flows minus the trade and budget deficits with both official budget data and the full budget including off budget flows... and again, its not exactly a confidence builder for the future value of the USDX.


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/tic_trade_budget_usdx1992on.png