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billstew
03-14-09, 07:36 PM
The next bull market: 2038 to 2042 or there abouts...

http://hireme.geek.nz/model-US-EU-credit-market-depression.html

Conclusions

The computational model results


The primitive equations say that the best probable year to exit the global depression is around 2021-2026. These "steady state" outcomes seem reasonable given probable reasonable finance market and consumer market (consumption and production) conditions.
Five years into a global depression there probably will be steady state conditions for 15 to 20 years into the future, as once a depression settles in -- it effects tends to act in the background as the population becomes accustomed to the set of living conditions. This is an implicit conclusion from the model, not an explicit one.
Similar credit market conditions to 2008 (for mortgage loans) will not return until 2037, based on the existent rigid model conditions. I consider this to be overly unrealistic even given the worst case finance system outcomes into the 2010s.

Longer term non-model effects not accounted for yet


Is this 10 to 35 year recession (or depression) part of the effects of a Kondratiev wave? It is hard for me to say. Many mechanical interpretations of the Kondratiev wave properties of the global economy exist, but trying to apply them to the existent (and erratic) finance sector data at this point is hard. To further make matters worse -- a lot of the "Western Finance System Datasets" (ie: historical EU / EEC / US finance system data) are contaminated by long term political interference.
Is this recession and probable depression part of a longer run Elliot Wave? Long term pessimism leading to a contraction in global consumer spending did contribute to the Great Depression, so that aspect I will not rule out -- as it is contributing to the downturn in the current day.
However weather this downturn is part of longer term seasonality of the global economy is difficult to call as it is too early into the event to tell.