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billstew
03-11-09, 03:11 AM
Ponzi schemes: Social Security & Medicare due for total collapse ... no matter how this global finance system crisis plays itself out.

Odds and sods


Alaska, Hawaii & Guam don't even pay into Social Security, and ditto for Medicare.
Social Security Disability actually forces the more able out of the workforce permanently -- so their ability to pay any kind of real taxes goes to nil.
Medicare has been sucked on the US medical community for decades in ways that make this tiny fragment of socialized medicine in the US cost way more than the total cost of running the NHS (in total overall running costs not in direct GAAP costs).
Most of the US productive capacity has been offshored, so the US lacks a way to export its way out of this manufactured crisis. Except for Agricultural productive capacity, it is not so easy to bring this productive capacity back.
The relative lack of health care for children in the US will probably indirectly contribute to the implosion of social Security and Medicare -- but it will not be mathematically obvious until after the fact. This has been a 40 to 50 year problem that the US has never really fixed...
The reduction of the ratio of workers to retirees is actually not part of the real world structural problems of Social Security and Medicare -- but it is a universal 'fly in the ointment' of all national retirement schemes that fail to adapt to it correctly.
billstew
03-13-09, 10:53 PM
Reason for the insolvency of these schemes: ~700k of debt per person in the US

Here are some spreadsheet numbers that allude to the nature of the problem...


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="4" frame="void" rules="none"> <colgroup><col width="94"><col width="343"><col width="176"><col width="323"></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td align="left" height="19" width="94">
</td> <td align="left" width="343">Known Data</td> <td align="left" width="176">
</td> <td align="center" width="323">Notes & Sources</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">Total US Population</td> <td sdval="306001001" sdnum="1033;0;#,##0" align="right">306,001,001</td> <td align="right">Millions of people via US Census Clock</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">guesstimate</td> <td align="left">Total US Working Population</td> <td sdval="253980830.83" sdnum="1033;0;#,##0" align="right">253,980,831</td> <td align="right">US residents with tax generating income</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">guesstimate</td> <td align="left">Total US Tax Paying Population</td> <td sdval="208264281.2806" sdnum="1033;0;#,##0" align="right">208,264,281</td> <td align="right">US residents “taxes > govt resources used”</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">guesstimate</td> <td align="left">Removal Working Population from % pop</td> <td sdval="0.17" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">17.00%</td> <td align="right">Remove children and elderly poor</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">guesstimate</td> <td align="left">Removal non-Tax Paying Pop from % Working Pop</td> <td sdval="0.18" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">18.00%</td> <td align="right">Remove nominal tax payers</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Governmental Interest Rate Average</td> <td sdval="0.0455" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">4.55%</td> <td align="right">Guesstimate</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Commercial Interest Rate Average (non CC)</td> <td sdval="0.085" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">8.50%</td> <td align="right">Guesstimate excluding Credit Cards</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Consumer Interest Rate Average, housing</td> <td sdval="0.075" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">7.50%</td> <td align="right">Guesstimate</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Consumer Interest Rate Average, non housing</td> <td sdval="0.1555" sdnum="1033;0;0.00%" align="right">15.55%</td> <td align="right">Guesstimate, mainly for credit cards</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Federal Government Debt</td> <td sdval="53010100100100" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$53,010,100,100,100</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">State Government Debt</td> <td sdval="5010100100010" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$5,010,100,100,010</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Local Govt Debt (county, city, water districts, etc)</td> <td sdval="3501000100011" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$3,501,000,100,011</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Consumer Housing Debt</td> <td sdval="30000100100100" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$30,000,100,100,100</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Consumer Credit Card Debt, Car Loan Debt etc...</td> <td sdval="20000100100101" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$20,000,100,100,101</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">estimate</td> <td align="left">Commercial Sector Debt</td> <td sdval="10000000100011" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$10,000,000,100,011</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Interest Incurred Debt (commercial, 5 years)</td> <td sdval="4250000042504.68" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$4,250,000,042,505</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Interest Incurred Debt (consumer, 7 years)</td> <td sdval="37520161511512.4" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$37,520,161,511,513</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Interest Incurred Debt (governmental, 20 years)</td> <td sdval="55984292273110.1" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$55,984,292,273,110</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">Debt Total</td> <td sdval="219275854427460" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="right">$219,275,854,427,460</td> <td align="right">Constant dollars (2009)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="19">
</td> <td align="left">Implied outcomes</td> <td sdnum="1033;0;[$$-1009]#,##0;-[$$-1009]#,##0" align="left">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Debt per person</td> <td sdval="716585.415442678" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-409]#,##0;[RED]-[$$-409]#,##0" align="left">$716,585</td> <td align="right">What is owed per person</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Debt per working person</td> <td sdval="863355.922220094" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-409]#,##0;[RED]-[$$-409]#,##0" align="left">$863,356</td> <td align="right">What is owed per working person</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Debt per (working) tax paying person</td> <td sdval="1052873.07587816" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-409]#,##0;[RED]-[$$-409]#,##0" align="left">$1,052,873</td> <td align="right">What is owed per tax paying person</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" height="19">subtotals</td> <td align="left">Debt per {Household} </td> <td sdval="2116872.91442221" sdnum="1033;0;[$$-409]#,##0;[RED]-[$$-409]#,##0" align="left">$2,116,873</td> <td align="right">Total owed per household (2.28 per House)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>