View Full Version : China: partner or problem?

01-12-07, 01:47 PM
I know I've read somewhere that historically wars are often fought when young male populations are put in a position where they have too few resources available. China is a huge trading partner with the US. It also is suffering from a significant gender imbalance, leaving a large population of unwed males clamoring for a small group of females. Either this is going to cause significant turmoil within China, or it is going to cause them to start expanding reach for more resources available. The question is, when and if this will start affecting trade policy, or more worrisome, military policy.


China facing major gender imbalance
Fri Jan 12, 10:14 AM ET

BEIJING - China will have 30 million more men of marriageable age than women in less than 15 years as a gender imbalance resulting in part from the country's tough one-child policy becomes more pronounced, state media reported Friday. Traditional preferences for sons has led to the widespread - but illegal - practice of women aborting babies if an early term sonogram shows it is a girl.

The tens of millions of men who will not be able to find a wife could also lead to social instability problems, the China Daily said in a front-page report.

01-12-07, 04:13 PM
I've read this has been a big issue in parts of south korea too. The likely solution is that china will import women from vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, etc, similar to what south korea does. Russian women are also for sale.

In other words, there is an economic way out of this, and besides, wars are usually started when the people at the top have love troubles (WWI, Trojan War, anything ever involved with Cleopatra, etc.)

The other thing is that men die quicker than women, for a myriad of reasons. It's probably not enough to even out the population with a 30 million person disparity, but also realize supply and demand. I'm not sure if China now is the same as it was, but if parents realize that a little girl will have much greater opportunity of choice for a mate, then maybe the pendulum will swing back the other way. Also, there are some interesting bio-evolutionary type cycles that occur, if it is more advantageous in an evolutionary manner to have a girl, the likelyhood of bearing a female child goes up.

As far as resources and young men, that may be historically true, but look at the recent past. The biggest thing that we go to war for is oil, and if china goes to war with anyone, it will be for energy consumption means. The people who fight because of lack of resources are the people who are starving in Nigeria and blow up pipelines and kidnap oil company workers likely because they have no choice. This type of person does not exist in vast quantities anymore because agriculture tech has allowed anyone with a stable political state to feed their populace.

Best guess is that over the next 20 years china imports millions of women from poor eastern european and pan-asian countries. Or, it could go the other way, meaning China could export millions of men for skilled or unskilled work to other countries. Another thing that could happen would be a migration of women from rural areas to urban areas, while men are left to tend the farms. This is what has happened in S Korea.

In either case, The Little Emperor Generation won't be going to war just because they don't have enough chicks in their city.

As far as the more general question, is china partner or problem, the answer is "Yes." Search for "Mutually Assured Destruction" of which EJ beautifully outlined in a posted topic/frontpage itulip article last year.