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Me
02-18-09, 02:16 AM
I am already positioned in EUO however am looking to short the Euro in the futures market. The struggle being what is the pair trade?

The yen is probably the most overvalued currency right now so not interested. The USD is questionable with all the long term paper to hit the market this year. Sterling in trouble. I would love to open up a discussion on shorting the Euro and specifically against what?

Chris
02-18-09, 03:49 AM
what about EURSEK? It's looking good for a potential short term trade.

cobben
02-18-09, 05:51 AM
I've got a nearterm (today - tomorrow) target of just over 9 for the USDSEK, though it could run past that a bit.

I'm thinking the EURSEK (which I don't see a clear target for) should top out at the same time, and this should mark a rebound in equities.

I don't trade these crosses, just watch & do some hedging on occasion.

Me
02-18-09, 02:29 PM
I've got a nearterm (today - tomorrow) target of just over 9 for the USDSEK, though it could run past that a bit.

I'm thinking the EURSEK (which I don't see a clear target for) should top out at the same time, and this should mark a rebound in equities.

I don't trade these crosses, just watch & do some hedging on occasion.

Thank you. Why the SEK? What is the reasoning.

cobben
02-19-09, 12:01 PM
Chris suggested the SEK, not me.
I watch because I am Swedish, well at least partially.

The Riksbank has frontrun the ECB in reducing rates, and has just promised 0% if necessary. They want to hold the SEK down of course, that's good for the export companies & reduces imports, but they certainly don't want to crash it.

I was hoping they would hold a harder line, though Sweden may well end up better off than the eurozone in the end anyway - really hard to say just now.

By the way looks like my target of 9 for the USDSEK may not get hit for now. Swedish statistics came out a little better than expected this morning and the SEK got bought again.

full disclosure:

please buy some SEK, help support my future Swedish pension.

Chris
02-19-09, 04:18 PM
I should have said that i'm not recommending that trade but it looks good technically for a few weeks or so - hence why I said short term. I don't know anything about the fundamentals of EURSEK and I don't trade currencies. I just watch them while I trade the long bond.

Sorry, if that's not what you wanted to hear ;)

Me
02-20-09, 03:14 AM
Thanks all. I am a fundamental investor and attempt to look very hard at the fiscal positions of countries amongst other things so short term trading is simply not my game. I think the Europeans are going to get it in the neck with massive loans to EM which are likely to be defaulted on. This will pressure the Euro. Just finding a pairing is proving difficult. They all suck really. The NOk looks Ok. Thanks anyway.