Interview with Doug Casey - Jan. 3, 2009 (Audio - 21min.)

[LargoWinch]

I am not too familiar with Doug Casey (any input regarding his reputation and track record would be appreciated).

Here his Bio from Wikipedia:

[Douglas "Doug" Casey is an American free market economist, best-selling financial author, and international investor and entrepreneur. Since 1979, he's written a monthly investment newsletter, The International Speculator.
His 1979 book Crisis Investing (1979) became the largest selling financial book in history, listing at #1 on the New York Times Best Seller list for a total of 12 non-consecutive weeks.]

Link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Casey


I also found this firm, which he founded (also mentioned in the below-noted audio clip):
http://www.caseyresearch.com/


Now that this has been clarified, here are the audio clips:

Part 1 (7min. - Audio)
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Part 2 (7min. - Audio)
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Part 3 (7min. - Audio)
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[zoog]

I am not too familiar with Doug Casey (any input regarding his reputation and track record would be appreciated).

He's a pretty well-known commodities and commodity stocks bull. Like most, he tends to talk his book. He has had some spectacular trades in the past in his recommendations to clients, little mining companies that, well, hit a gold mine... but of course he tends to downplay the ones that didn't do so well.

[metalman]

He's a pretty well-known commodities and commodity stocks bull. Like most, he tends to talk his book. He has had some spectacular trades in the past in his recommendations to clients, little mining companies that, well, hit a gold mine... but of course he tends to downplay the ones that didn't do so well.

like jim sinclaire but not a big thinker... made it in 1978/80 and has been 'mining' it ever since. :o

[Chris]

Largo, I've lost a lot of money following some of Doug's recommendations (before I discovered iTulip). I think he did very well before 2005 though.

[LargoWinch]

Largo, I've lost a lot of money following some of Doug's recommendations (before I discovered iTulip). I think he did very well before 2005 though.

Thanks Chris for the "added color".

May I ask you, who following now (besides iTulip of course)?

In my view, Stephen Leeb was a disaster this year. Call ex. #1: Buy - a lot - of Crude if it goes down below... $120! Ouch. (I did not do that thanks to iTulip).

On the flip side Faber and of course EJ, did very well in my book.

[Spartacus]

He's one of the people who became famous for recommending Gold in the mid to early 70s.

BUT ...

If I remember correctly (I'm NOT 100% sure about this, and no one seems to have commented on this in a way I can find on google) he rode Gold down (held on to it, refusing to sell) for most of the drop from $800

He personally seems to have a significant chunk of cash, so he made some money, but I don't know if he made it investing or selling investment letters.

Of that group (the early to mid 70s gold bugs) Howard Ruff was the only one who got out near the top (early 1980, if memory serves). A couple got out soon after the drop started, and again, Casey got out even later.

He correctly called for a new Gold, Silver and Uranium bull market in 1999.

He was completely mistaken about the early 1990s credit situation, calling for a credit meltdown and pointing to what at the time looked like unsustainable credit levels. He wasn't alone in this, of course - Ravi Batra and Lord Rees-Mogg were also wrong on that. I've forgetten if Casey called for another Gold bull market at that time.


I am not too familiar with Doug Casey (any input regarding his reputation and track record would be appreciated).

[LargoWinch]

I "leve mon chapeau" to your memory Spartacus! thanks for the info.

[Spartacus]

Again, please don't take that as canon.

I have not been able to verify my memories, specifically the "riding it down most of the way".

I "leve mon chapeau" to your memory Spartacus! thanks for the info.

[Chris]

Thanks Chris for the "added color".

May I ask you, who following now (besides iTulip of course)?

In my view, Stephen Leeb was a disaster this year. Call ex. #1: Buy - a lot - of Crude if it goes down below... $120! Ouch. (I did not do that thanks to iTulip).

On the flip side Faber and of course EJ, did very well in my book.

I'm being a little harsh. Doug and his team are excellent stock pickers and I can't fault them for their sector analysis. In fact they are one of the best in terms of newsletter quality....BUT....their macro analysis (or at least what they publish in the newsletters) is a little too simplistic which is probably why their stock recommendations (i.e. continue buying stocks) have proved so disastrous in this crisis.

For example, his junior mining sector letter has done spectacularly badly but he is still recommending to buy in to the companies in anticipation of the next 70's style gold bull market. Fine, if you bought in the middle of November 2008 you'd be up 100-300% on some but if you bought any time before this crash you'd be looking at hideous losses.

Of course, if you read iTulip you'd know that sector shouldn't be touched with a barge-pole ;)

[grapejelly]

I think Doug and his company are great. Nobody could have predicted the decimation of the mining sector. I am looking at "hideous losses" and I wish I didn't own any mining shares, but I think in the longer run it will work out very well. Of course I suffer from ownership bias.

[metalman]

Nobody could have predicted the decimation of the mining sector.

ha, ha! use the ;) smiley next time. unless you're not kidding (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53417#poststop) somehow. :eek:

[Sharky]

Casey is entertaining. I've been reading his stuff on-and-off since Crisis Investing. The problem is that his sense of timing has been pretty poor -- a few big hits and lots of equally big misses (if you make enough calls, you're bound to get a few right). He's definitely not someone whose investment advice I would recommend following.

Actually, he reminds me of Peter Schiff in a way. I feel the same way about him.

[Chris]

Isn't the saying that anyone can make money in a bull market?