Podcast: Eric Janszen and Mish debate nickels, housing, recession and 'flations

[FRED]

Contrarian Debate: Janszen vs Mish

Eric Janszen and Mish debate the new law on pocket change, housing, recession, and the terminal state of the asset bubble cycle: inflation or deflation?

http://www.itulip.com/images/EJvsMish.jpg


Podcast Here (http://www.itulip.com/audio/mishanderic14122006.m3u)


Bios

Michael Shedlock (Mish) and partner Brian McAuley are the editors of The Survival Report, an Agora Financial publication about stocks and the economy. Mish also writes for the Daily Reckoning and is co-editor of Whiskey & Gunpowder (a free publication offering daily commentary about the stock market and the economy) and founder of global economics blog "Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis." He also runs stock boards on the Motley Fool, Silicon Investor, and TheMarketTraders. Tune in to weekly podcasts on HoweStreet every Wednesday.

Eric Janszen is Founder and President of iTulip, Inc., the global online economics and financial markets community founded in 1998 with more than six million visitors* from 75 countries that Gill Griffeth of CNBC calls "...the place to go for a contrary view of the markets" and The New York Times credits for accurate predictions of future economic developments. Previously President and CEO of RF control technology company AutoCell Laboratories, Inc., Entrepreneur in Residence at $1.6B venture capital firm Trident Capital, President and CEO of Bluesocket, Inc. and Managing Director of seed stage investment firm Osborn Capital.

Commentaries by Eric Janszen on inflation/deflation:
Is it 1999 again? Yes and no (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=680)
The Modern Depression (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=495)
No Deflation! Disinflation then Lots of Inflation (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=417)
The Bubble Cycle is Replacing the Business Cycle (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=360)
Inflation is Dead! Long Live Inflation! (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=326)
The Coming End of the US Foreign Investment Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=252)
Episode I: Stagflation Godzilla Returns, Attacks Finance-Based Economy! (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=102)
Episode II: Stagflation Godzilla Returns, Attacks Finance-Based Economy! (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=152)
Energy and Money Part I: Too Little Oil or Too Much Money? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107)
Energy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=108)

[blazespinnaker]

Great conversation. I think Eric obviously is a brilliant speaker, however, I still feel that deflation will be the only way out because inflation will result in a price for oil (which must be imported) that would bring society to its knees.

In other words, as the fed defends the price of oil (not the dollar), everything else deflates around it as the economy goes into recession and demand drops - but still the price of oil remains high.

[DanielLCharts]

Great conversation. I think Eric obviously is a brilliant speaker, however, I still feel that deflation will be the only way out because inflation will result in a price for oil (which must be imported) that would bring society to its knees.

In other words, as the fed defends the price of oil (not the dollar), everything else deflates around it as the economy goes into recession and demand drops - but still the price of oil remains high.

I have to agree. Mish isn't really a great debater or speaker for that matter. It's really not fair hearing him juxtaposed with the polished EJ. The key may be the bad residential housing-related debts taken on by banks - mortgages and home equity - that will likely spoil. Same problem as Japan. I doubt it's the problem the fed can fix by merely increasing liquidity. We'll see of course. Ironically Mish had a great discussion with Paul Kasriel on this very issue. I believe it's still on his site, and it's very convincing.

[Jim Nickerson]

It was a good discussion, but leaves me undecided as to whether the "Ka" will be a relatively minor event or will it turn out to be a significant deflation. After listening, I see the poll with only one choice or the other.

I would vote for "undecided."

[Uncle Jack]

I agree that EJ is much more polished in his presentation, plus the podcast was too loud on Mish's side and too low on EJ's side, exaggerating the relative calm of EJ compared to Mish.

I thought the "debate" wasn't really moderated. It seemed more as if Mish was attempting to convince EJ of his point of view, while EJ slowly built his case for the Ka-Poom. He never really quite got it across because Mish jumped around and interrupted a lot while EJ tried to finish his points, which takes him longer than soundbites to accomplish. Mish's excitement culminated in finally getting "gold" as the answer from EJ in the end that Mish seemed to be waiting for, as if that was the answer to both sides' stance on the outcome.

While impossible to tell, I too would like a guess (since we're down this road) of how deep the "ka" would be before the hyperinflation set in. Even gold should take a short-term hit in the "ka" phase I would imagine.

The better debate, since he holds Mish's same view of a deflationary crash, would be between Robert Prechter and EJ. Plus you'd get Prechter's polished speaking ability, which would counter EJ's very nicely in a debate about the outcome.

[jk]

I have to agree. Mish isn't really a great debater or speaker for that matter. It's really not fair hearing him juxtaposed with the polished EJ. The key may be the bad residential housing-related debts taken on by banks - mortgages and home equity - that will likely spoil. Same problem as Japan. I doubt it's the problem the fed can fix by merely increasing liquidity. We'll see of course. Ironically Mish had a great discussion with Paul Kasriel on this very issue. I believe it's still on his site, and it's very convincing.

the problem with the kasriel interview is that it didn't go into the non-traditional interventions available to the fed that bernanke enumerated in his "why it [deflation] won't happen here" speech. bernanke was quite explicit that there would be no deflation on his watch, and he spelled out exactly how he'd react. meanwhile, kasriel, mish and some folks around here confine their analyses to the assumption that the fed will restrict itself to conventional intervention in the face of deflationary disaster.