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View Full Version : America.....The coming collaspe of 09



Mega
12-20-08, 06:58 PM
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=CtpsV0zMM3s

Total collaspe
Revolution
Pain

............and hopfully am American wife for Mega!

Mike

BadJuju
12-20-08, 07:18 PM
The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.

Wild Style
12-20-08, 07:25 PM
The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.when....link?

ricket
12-20-08, 08:51 PM
The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.

Proof?

Otherwise, your 6 posts will explain it all...

BadJuju
12-20-08, 09:20 PM
All of his predictions have been incredibly generalized without any real substance to them. Some of what he says may be true, but he does not offer anything substantive to back what he says up. Why even listen to him when Janszen has made much better predictions with actual data to back it up?

LargoWinch
12-20-08, 09:55 PM
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=CtpsV0zMM3s

Total collaspe
Revolution
Pain

............and hopfully am American wife for Mega!

Mike

Sorry Clockwork Orange guy this is kinda...boring.

santafe2
12-21-08, 01:40 AM
All of his predictions have been incredibly generalized without any real substance to them. Some of what he says may be true, but he does not offer anything substantive to back what he says up. Why even listen to him when Janszen has made much better predictions with actual data to back it up?

One of the great things about iTulip, is that one can't often defend a specific allegation with a generalized defense. You'll simply get called out even if your point is correct. It's especially difficult when you're accusing someone of being incredibly general and without substance while using incredibly general accusations without substance. You also find that you entertain logical fallacy at your own risk. I see three in the above paragraph. If you dislike Celente, and can support your argument with some research, you'll find several other posters who support your position and come to your defense. iTulip contains several discussions regarding Celente if you would like to fill your quiver before you respond to this thread.

And if you find that task daunting, don't forget, Mega wants an American wife. One assumes, South American. He may be thinking of Brazil or has desperation lead him to a Hooters in South Dakota? That's definitely a new thread.

TRake
01-21-09, 05:53 AM
Here is something that may not be so boring....
My job consists of monitoring and balancing electrical demand in a highly industrial area near chicago. Customers are PX, X, MT, BP.......
I have noticed that for the calendar 4th quarter the demand from all of these industries went to zero. For the entire 3 months nothing was being made. Then at the start of the year everything was back to normal. I also have some friends that work at these companies and others that supply these companies. I know that MT and X were placing orders on backlog during this period. I also know that MT has a firing plan that is based on or around the Obama stimulus announcements. I also know that MT increased its maintenance expenditures from 0 to 350,000 per month starting the new year.
Based on all of this my first conclusion is that we may be setting up for a false market bottom with the earnings that are rolling through. I am sure that demand for all of these companies will not go straight up from here. Personally I have set up a strategy for the potential bottoms in some of the names listed. I only see us going straight up from here if Obama does start his bank and gives it the 800 billion stimulus money to loan out at 15 to 1 or better (or worse depending on your position) for US programs. That kind of capital injection might do something.

If I am completely off please let me know.

TRake

FRED
01-21-09, 08:45 PM
For the entire 3 months nothing was being made. Then at the start of the year everything was back to normal. TRake

Clarification, please. What do you mean by "nothing was being made" and "everything was back to normal"? Thanks.

TRake
01-21-09, 11:49 PM
Fred,

What I mean is that thier electrical load went to zero meaning they were not running machines and making steel or gas or fuel, depending on the company. For example, when X or MT is producing new product they have two main furnaces called electronic arc furnaces (EAF's) that melt the steel. When these furnaces come on they instantly use up to 150 million watts (Mega Watts or MW's) of power. These furnaces were running every day all day until some time in the 3rd quarter of 2008. Then they shut down completely for the entire 4th quarter of 2008. When we entered 2009 after the holiday, X and MT both were running there furnaces just like they did prior to Q3 2008. They run these furnaces every day all day except for Tuesday's for maintenance. In 2007 this shutdown did not happen in the 4th quarter. In 2007 they may have slowed a little, but not at all like they did this year.

TRake

TRake
01-22-09, 12:03 AM
Another thing......I know that emplyee's of MT were offered a stock option buying program. They were offered to buy stock at a 2% discount from the going rate unless the price of MT was < or = $15, then they would have to pay $15 no matter what. This seems to suggest that MT is trying to buoy their price and create a base of $15.

TRake

metalman
01-22-09, 12:03 AM
Fred,

What I mean is that thier electrical load went to zero meaning they were not running machines and making steel or gas or fuel, depending on the company. For example, when X or MT is producing new product they have two main furnaces called electronic arc furnaces (EAF's) that melt the steel. When these furnaces come on they instantly use up to 150 million watts (Mega Watts or MW's) of power. These furnaces were running every day all day until some time in the 3rd quarter of 2008. Then they shut down completely for the entire 4th quarter of 2008. When we entered 2009 after the holiday, X and MT both were running there furnaces just like they did prior to Q3 2008. They run these furnaces every day all day except for Tuesday's for maintenance. In 2007 this shutdown did not happen in the 4th quarter. In 2007 they may have slowed a little, but not at all like they did this year.

TRake

interesting. has that ever happened before? are they back to full power now?

TRake
01-22-09, 12:06 AM
I don't know about the 1970's, but this has not happened in the recent past.

c1ue
01-22-09, 01:21 AM
TRake,

Out of curiosity, has the price of electrical power been constant through this entire period (Q1-Q4 2008)?

I ask because United just ate a nearly $1B loss in Q4 due to fuel hedging.

What's even more interesting is that only about 1/3 of the amount is 'booked', the remainder is ongoing.

I have speculated before that some of the demand loss is due to these hedges unwinding.

In your ArcMit and US Steel examples, perhaps price spikes from the summer combined with anticipated loss of demand contributed to the shutdown you saw.

What would be a smoking gun is if these facilities were in fact 'shut down' - everyone sent home on enforced vacation. This has been going on with the semi companies, for example.

ThePythonicCow
01-22-09, 02:02 AM
we may be setting up for a false market bottom with the earnings that are rolling through.And could you clarify what the above means? Does it mean that you anticipate (1) improved profits and business showing in these companies for this quarter, due to their working off the backlog from the fourth quarter, only to be followed by (2) another collapse in production when new orders fall short.

As a result, the profits of this quarter may boost the stock price for the moment, only for sales, production and the stock price to fall further next quarter?

Is that more or less what you're saying?

TRake
01-22-09, 02:29 AM
c1ue,

The price of electrical power is fairly simple. Prices are higher in the summer due to the fact that most air conditioning units are electrically driven. The price of electricity is lower in the winter than in the summer because most US heating is done with natural gas and only a little is done with electricity. In the spring and fall the price of electricity is lowest of all because in most areas heating and cooling is not required.

For our industrials, prices are negotiated for a certain time period and I am unsure what that time period is. I can say that the prices do not change over the course of a year, but they are based on the cost of power at the time. It is known to anyone who buys electricity in mass quantities that it is cheaper during the winter.

I know that the facilities were not shut down per say, but fear among newer union employees was initiated by MT due to a message sent out that anyone with under 3 years of employment may be layed off on 1/25 or 1/26 of 2009.

I have also heard rumors that BP is looking for a buyer for its refining, much like XOM sold its refining division. I have nothing to base this on other than statement from an employee.

TRake

TRake
01-22-09, 02:36 AM
What I mean: Q4 will be terrible mainly for MT and X due to little or no production. This will cause an initial price drop. If the analysts forecast a continuation of this lack of production I am almost positive that they are wrong simply due to the consumption of electricity at these plants for Q1 2009. This would lead to an earnings beat and a short term price increase.

TRake

TRake
01-22-09, 06:06 AM
c1ue,

Thinking about this some more......I worked at a company called Jupiter Aluminum which is an aluminum recycler that makes aluminum coil and supplies Home Depot, state governments for license plates and other large companies. Their main competitor is AA, but Jupiter is private. They shut down their plant for 1 month this winter. I left their company 2 years ago because I ran numbers for them and I saw bad things ahead. I know that the owner is sitting on about 50 to 100 million pounds of aluminum of which the value has been cut in half. I don't think Jupiter will exist in a few years, or they will be bought. The next owner in line is a doctor of Psychology.

Please look at my recent posts about "Can Science Help Solve the Economic Crisis?"........mainly the one about my thoughts and conclusions.

TRake

c1ue
01-22-09, 09:16 AM
T,

Thanks for your on-the-ground report.

It does appear likely that the shutdowns were more a short term corporate financial maneuver, as opposed to the ramp up being anticipatory towards Obama stimulus orders or some such.

As for your previous aluminum experience: it all depends on how much was paid for that stockpile. Aluminum being extremely energy intensive, it will be interesting to see who got hurt by overproduction during the period of both energy and commodity price spikes - which didn't quite coincide.

Certainly for anything so capital intensive and cyclical like an aluminum smelter, there are good hard reasons why either extremely professional management is needed or be owned by a the most deep pocketed of organizations - government.

phirang
01-22-09, 12:23 PM
I dunno... I think the trade was to go long X this fall and short earlier in Jan at the height of the Obongo rally.

The more elucidation that is done on the stimulus, the worse, imho: mostly tax cuts and handouts to prevent rioting.

TRake
01-23-09, 12:18 AM
That may be true.....
I guess I should clarify that I only trade options and futures. I only look at one day, maybe two day trades. I seek out quick hits when I know what is coming. I placed a small bet for today that worked and now I wish I would have bet it all, just for a day. I went with MSFT puts and GOOG calls. This was simply based on the fact that MSFT is terrible and Gates doesn't care any more, and that retailers wanted to sell as much as possible this holiday season and Google advertising would not decrease. I made very little on the GOOG side, but plenty on the MSFT side.

TRake

c1ue
01-24-09, 09:01 PM
TRake:

Never underestimate the power of Google's monkeying with their engine.

For me it is already quite clear that Google is going the way of Ebay: taking such advantage of their clients and patrons that alternatives will be found.