View Full Version : Trip report: Japan
Trip just started, but interesting items already:
1) 2 DHS representatives were inspecting passports of everyone as passengers boarded the plane (were in the ramp). They specifically made the point that $10,000 or more being taken out of the country needed to be declared or penalties could accrue. Capital controls, anyone?
2) One supplier has gone bankrupt - high back tax bill combined with unwillingness of bank to extend credit. Anecdotal tales of Japanese manufacturer suffering to be verified in person.
Trip just started, but interesting items already:
1) 2 DHS representatives were inspecting passports of everyone as passengers boarded the plane (were in the ramp). They specifically made the point that $10,000 or more being taken out of the country needed to be declared or penalties could accrue. Capital controls, anyone?
2) One supplier has gone bankrupt - high back tax bill combined with unwillingness of bank to extend credit. Anecdotal tales of Japanese manufacturer suffering to be verified in person.
Thank you for the report. We look forward to updates. Don't forget to take pictures!
Trip just started, but interesting items already:
1) 2 DHS representatives were inspecting passports of everyone as passengers boarded the plane (were in the ramp). They specifically made the point that $10,000 or more being taken out of the country needed to be declared or penalties could accrue. Capital controls, anyone?
2) One supplier has gone bankrupt - high back tax bill combined with unwillingness of bank to extend credit. Anecdotal tales of Japanese manufacturer suffering to be verified in person.
C1ue: What's a DHS rep? Is this comment related to exiting Japan? Or were you leaving somewhere else [USA??] to go to Japan when the currency matter came up? thanks in advance for the clarification.
Verrocchio
12-02-08, 09:29 PM
Trip just started, but interesting items already:
1) 2 DHS representatives were inspecting passports of everyone as passengers boarded the plane (were in the ramp). They specifically made the point that $10,000 or more being taken out of the country needed to be declared or penalties could accrue. Capital controls, anyone?
C1ue, I for one certainly feel safer knowing that the homeland security lads are vigilantly monitoring outbound travelers.:rolleyes:
Looking forward to more reports!
C1ue, I for one certainly feel safer knowing that the homeland security lads are vigilantly monitoring outbound travelers.:rolleyes:
Looking forward to more reports!\
Okay, that answers the DHS question. Thanks V.
Talked to 3 different close friends
1) (Mrs. Watanabe) - an executive assistant to a CEO in a major Japanese insurer. She's financially VERY well off - salary comparable to many Japanese CEOs. But, she's lost 40% in her investments in the past 6 months between the yen and the stock markets
2) (Mr. Watanabe) - no relation to Mrs. W - Was building a hotel in Okinawa. Funding has been cut off. Now deciding on tough decision to plow forward with more of own cash with hope of getting financing in a year, or cutting losses.
3) (Watanabe Corp A, B, C, & D) - all are manufacturers. All have ceased providing credit of any sort to customers as they've all been burned by customer bankruptcies and failures to pay. Business levels dropping 20% or more. All companies exclusively deal with Japanese customers, but customers in turn do export. Actual percentage not known.
C1ue, how's the rest of the trip going?
Still talking to a lot of people.
Margins in the candy business are now 3% and lower. Suppliers are cutting their prices as low as possible to try and compensate for the strong yen.
Cosmetics have hit the wall: high end is suffering but alive.
Middle tier has gone bug splat against a car windshield.
Extreme low end is doing great - 7-11 and similar conbini stores are now the biggest growth market in cosmetics. Yes, that Chinese made crap.
A guy I met who supposedly has a net worth 300X mine is saying he's getting ready to splash money out to buy.
Rank and file Japanese by and large still think the US is going to pull out of the death spiral. "This is the second time in my life I've seen the yen so strong".
End of trip.
General report:
1) Definitely pockets of suffering going on. Almost every Japanese who had invested abroad has suffered monstrous losses on these investments. However, daily life still is progressing as before. My guess is that it is still too early as the yen rise is less than 1 quarter old.
2) Suppliers have uniformly rejected any types of credit or delayed payment. The initial rise in bankrupties has already affected them, so everything is cash on the barrel
3) Importers of basic materials are still doing fine. Exporters, however, are being very badly hurt. Between the recent yen rise, legislative changes in other nations, and general credit seize-up, there was outright speculation over Japan's surplus halving in 2 quarters.
4) Old/smart money in Japan is again turning outward - looking in nearby regions to buy assets presently cheaply valued. We're talking $250K+ industrial machinery, entire production lines, etc. However, those whom I spoke with were purely bottom fishing - not seeking to build new manufacturing anywhere in particular
5) Ticket prices to Japan are falling - it appears that United and American Airlines are either biting the bullet or have run out of their previously badly executed oil price hedges. Japanese airlines' tickets are still the same - no doubt because labor costs are higher relatively now with the yen strength.
6) Everything in Japan was ridiculously expensive at 92 yen/dollar. Ouch!
7) The South Americans previously on every US-Asia flight have all disappeared. Completely.
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