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EJ
11-25-08, 04:41 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/bubblecosmology.jpgBeware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the Debt Deflation Bear Market bottom?

No "bottom" until the debt is gone

As detailed in Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=61898#post61898), the Debt Deflation Market that started in 2008 continues in 2009 with rallies driven by positive sentiment invoked by government stimulus spending announcements, such as the rally we have witnessed over the past few days. As we exit the Period of Panic that began in October and enter the Period of False Hope and Uncertainty in 2009, the brave hearted may attempt to trade these rallies, and we will attempt to identify them for subscribers. The false hope is that government spending can pull the economy out of its debt deflation, and that we are wiser than our grandparents and great grandparents were under similar circumstances. But that was then, and this is now.
MESSAGE READ TO CONGRESS (http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F10F14FB3A5C157A93C1A91789D95F44 8385F9); President Asks Speed on Bills to Create Work in Next Six Months. URGES PUBLIC COOPERATION He Advocates Federal Loans to Farmers--Hits at Speculation as a Cause of Depression. TREASURY LOSS $180,000,000. Caraway Wants Specific Bill. ASKS $150,000,000 TO AID THE IDLE. Most of Message on Depression.

By RICHARD V. OULAHAN. Special to The New York Times.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 2, 1930.--Frankly stating that the treasury was confronted with a deficit of $180,000,000 and plainly, indicating that this would prevent any continuance of the 1 per cent reduction in income taxes granted last year, President [Hoover] ...
The DJIA rallied 8% from 178 on Dec. 1, 1930 to 192 Feb. 16, 1931 on the promise of tax cuts and deficit spending programs, before declining another 76% to 45 on Jun. 27, 1932. Now that is a debt deflation bear market bottom.

The “lesson” we are supposed to have learned is to not worry about deficits during recession -- or before or after them, for that matter. In the fictional world of mainstream economics, deficits don’t matter when the economy is expanding because we’ll grow our way out of it, you see, and they don’t matter during recessions because fiscal stimulus to prevent recession from turning to depression is paramount, you see. The lesson of 1930 was Hoover’s mistaken balanced budget policy during a recession. That plunged the US into a depression. Or maybe not.
RATES OF INTEREST, PAY TIED TO JOBS; RATES OF INTEREST, PAY TIED TO JOBS (http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00910F9395A1B7B93C4A91789D85F43 8485F9)
February 6, 1947 (New York Times)

The experience of Sweden, the only country to stabilize its economy successfully during the world economic depression of the thirties, is that fixing interest rates that discourage saving and allowing wage rates to reduce profits may prolong or intensify unemployment, Dr. Bertil Ohlin declared last night.
Do we have it in us, to learn from Sweden? Then again, can Sweden learn from Sweden?
New Nordic Outlook: Deeper recession - despite aggressive stimulus policies (http://www.ad-hoc-news.de/new-nordic-outlook-deeper-recession-despite-aggressive--/de/Unternehmensnachrichten/19889309)
Nov. 25, 2008 (Ad Hoc News)

The downturn in the Swedish economy is continuing at a rapid pace. Next year GDP will fall by 1.3 per cent, and economic weakness will persist in 2010. The recession will have a growing impact on the labour market. The job market will shrink by nearly 150,000 people altogether, and unemployment will climb to nearly 10 per cent by the end of 2010. The Riksbank will cut its repo rate at least to 1.50 per cent next summer. The government will implement additional fiscal stimulus packages, and by 2010 Sweden's annual surpluses in public sector finances will have turned into a deficit equivalent to 3.5 per cent of GDP.
Sweden “learned” what all governments “learned,” that a depression driven by debt deflation is like any other recession that can be cured by the cause, credit expansion; politicians who fail to pull out the umbrella of government credit, the bigger the better, to rescue debtors and wave it in the air shouting loudly might as well stand on a church steeple holding a golf club in a thunderstorm so guaranteed is inaction to lead to multiple strikes of fury by unemployed voters.

Exporting Depression

One way to cope with recession is to ship it off to distant shores by means of capital controls.
Attracting Foreign Investment, Sony (http://www.sony.net/Fun/SH/1-12/h3.html)

Japan's economic depression was rooted in the interest equalization tax instituted in July 1963 by the President of the United States John F. Kennedy... At the time, the American economy was in recession, resulting in a tremendous outflow of domestic capital. To slow this trend, Kennedy took strong measures -- a 16.5% interest equalization tax on all capital leaving the U.S. While this move did indeed decrease the outward flow of American capital, it also incited panic in world markets. Japan was no exception. In 1965, Japan felt the full effects of the tax -- the securities market slumped into the worst depression in its history. When the Tokyo Stock Exchange average dropped to 1,020 yen, many thought that the Japanese economy would collapse.
But that won't work again. The US was a net creditor and an ample market for exports. Now we are neither.

The Bubble that Broke the World, again?

A facet of the delusion that once again engulfed us is explained in the section of Garret Garrett's 1932 classic The Bubble that Broke the World (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&id=qmr_yGq-kagC&dq=the+bubble+that+broke+the+world&printsec=frontcover&source=web&ots=6OwP-IEUd5&sig=GrejES3U8SAuv7kRuTVtmD_wDF0&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=9&ct=result#PPA5,M1) above. I bought an original copy of the book in 1998 from the Victor Hugo used book store on Newbury Street in Boston. It has been a constant guide ever since. The facts of the current global credit crash vary little from his description except in the speed and fury of the current instance. If you have not read it yet, I recommend it highly.

Global Crash

Tearing a page from the last Great Depression hymn book, world leaders at the G20 summit last week agreed to not repeat the errors of the past by erecting trade barriers and repeating of the beggar thy neighbor policies of the 1930s that lengthened and deepened the depression. But the modern global economy isn't giving them a chance. Who needs tariffs to slow trade when we have a real-time global credit network crash and demand collapse doing it for us?
LAYUPS OF SHIPS REFLECT DETERIORATION IN WORLD’S CONTAINER TRADE (http://www.shippingdigest.com/news/article.asp?sid=5668&ltype=maritime)
November 24, 2008 (PETER T. LEACH – Shipping Digest)

If current trends continue, Ron Widdows says, he’ll soon be able to see much of the world’s container ship fleet from his office window in Singapore. The chief executive of Neptune Orient Lines is joking, but it’s gallows humor — the growing number of laid-up ships is a sign of hard times that are likely to become worse.

The container shipping industry is being hit by a synchronized global economic shock more severe than any recession since the advent of containerization. The impact is only beginning to be felt. It’s likely to change the face of the industry by forcing some lines out of business, forcing others to merge or sell off ships and cause layups of hundreds of ships in the next year or two.

Until the end of October, the slowdown appeared to be a cyclical downturn that container lines could manage the way they have managed previous slumps. But then consumers in the U.S. and Europe, seeing what was happening in the financial markets, closed their wallets and purses. With businesses hit by weak demand and tight credit, container lines saw their cargo bookings plummet.
No, this global debt deflation is not like the last. It is much more swift, and that carries with it its own unique risks.

Exit Fantasy

Next year the fiction will be dispelled that governments can stop debt deflation by means that do not either produce mass unemployment or horrific inflation. As they try and repeatedly fail to meet expectations the Period of False Hope and Uncertainty will give way to the Era of Total Despair, and then we will see a bottom. Lost and wandering the ideological landscape with all of the old beliefs washed out, men go mad and grasp for any explanation but the truth -- that the debt must be deflated before recovery can begin -- and anything can happen. Watch Kudlow’s show and you’ll see what I mean.

Economic eras may share similarities but not two are alike. What worked in the last debt deflation will not work now, and what did not work then will most certainly not work now. In debt deflation governments are either fighting the last economic war or some ancient war fought under conditions that will never recur, but all the same the root causes are alike: the economic delusions produced by excess credit.

The US cannot export its way out of debt as Japan did from 1990 until recently – and what will happen to Japan in this recession with its public debt now 193% of GDP? We hear that Asia will lend no more, so the US cannot borrow its way out of debt.

At least iTulip readers can resign ourselves to our fate, and the sooner the better. There are consequences to debt. How shall we take it, by inflation or deflation? I say inflation is inevitable, so let's get it over with.

iTulip Select (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1032): The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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Jim Nickerson
11-25-08, 06:39 PM
In 2008 the sky darkened and it came down on him like a single, hulking fist, hitting once full in the face. Smack! He staggered backwards, then again and again it came punching -- ribs, stomach, wind knocked out. Then with open hand, slapping, then again tight and angry, bashing, jabbing.

At first he stood his ground, put up his arms, took two swings in meek defense against impossible force, then more punches, vengeful, pummeling, then on the ground balled up, and after a single, deep moan took his savage beating for the duration with honor in silence.

No one shouted, Get up! All around him the others stood by, faces blank, staring, or fell with him, one by one, thuds and scuffles, an odd whimper or cry. On it went until all the fight was out of it.

He lay still and wounded. An hour later he knew it was done. He gathered his wits and seeing nothing broken but cuts and bruises pulled himself up and began the long walk home.

It was Debt and he was America. He had it coming. But now it was over. The sun warmed his back and he felt for the first time in so many years like his own true self again and from then on everything would be alright.



First, I don't get the "In the year 2012" that precedes your quoted work;
otherwise, I think you are being a bit optimitistic here, unless you put in another character "the US political system" whose left arm is the Democrats, whose right arm is the Republicans, and whose head is empty. This second character needs not to be badly beaten, but killed.

don
11-25-08, 06:40 PM
One of your best, Eric.
Thanks, pal

metalman
11-25-08, 06:43 PM
In the year 2012

In 2008 the sky darkened and it came down on him like a single, hulking fist, hitting once full in the face. Smack! He staggered backwards, then again and again it came punching -- ribs, stomach, wind knocked out. Then with open hand, slapping, then again tight and angry, bashing, jabbing.

At first he stood his ground, put up his arms, took two swings in meek defense against impossible force, then more punches, vengeful, pummeling, then on the ground balled up, and after a single, deep moan took his savage beating for the duration with honor in silence.

No one shouted, Get up! All around him the others stood by, faces blank, staring, or fell with him, one by one, thuds and scuffles, an odd whimper or cry. On it went until all the fight was out of it.

He lay still and wounded. An hour later he knew it was done. He gathered his wits and seeing nothing broken but cuts and bruises pulled himself up and began the long walk home.

It was Debt and he was America. He had it coming. But now it was over. The sun warmed his back and he felt for the first time in so many years like his own true self again and from then on everything would be alright.


hmmmmm. a peculiar mix of history, analysis, doomerism & literature. not sure what to make of it but... combined with rajiv's martin weiss post (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6642) makes me want to go to the bank and take out all of my money. :eek:

metalman
11-25-08, 07:08 PM
Exporting Depression

One way to cope with recession is to ship it off to distant shores by means of capital controls.
Attracting Foreign Investment, Sony (http://www.sony.net/Fun/SH/1-12/h3.html)

Japan's economic depression was rooted in the interest equalization tax instituted in July 1963 by the President of the United States John F. Kennedy... At the time, the American economy was in recession, resulting in a tremendous outflow of domestic capital. To slow this trend, Kennedy took strong measures -- a 16.5% interest equalization tax on all capital leaving the U.S. While this move did indeed decrease the outward flow of American capital, it also incited panic in world markets. Japan was no exception. In 1965, Japan felt the full effects of the tax -- the securities market slumped into the worst depression in its history. When the Tokyo Stock Exchange average dropped to 1,020 yen, many thought that the Japanese economy would collapse.
But that won't work again. The US was a net creditor and an ample market for exports. Now we are neither.


btw, this is on sony's corp. web site! not in any history book i've read. where do you guys get this stuff???

sishya
11-25-08, 07:24 PM
EJ
Good Post. It is always good to look at our past to get an idea of how the future can turn out. Particularly liked your comments -
"The false hope is that government spending can pull the economy out of its debt deflation, and that we are wiser than our grandparents and great grandparents were under similar circumstances". That we are smarter than our forefathers - that is just fantasy we are hearing on TV.

Mega
11-25-08, 07:31 PM
EJ
They put the price of a Big Mac up today.........Ha there their deflation hopes blown!
Mike

hankhill
11-25-08, 08:14 PM
For anyone who is interested in reading Garet Garrett's classic work mentioned by EJ, here's a link to the entire online book, courtesy of the Mises folks:

http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf

icm63
11-25-08, 09:01 PM
Some say the 2012 is not going to be good, as the baby boomers retire and there children cant support them..and that was before USA took on $7.7 trillion dollars of debt in 6 months.. http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/
Also DOW 26000 may be a bit of a reach...Dan Arnold didnt really take into account $65 trillion of CDS.. so I guess its worse than even he thought !

strittmatter
11-25-08, 09:42 PM
I've never been a huge fan of Kris Kristofferson as an entertainer, but he is perhaps one of the better song writers of my time. A new title perhaps: "He's America" or "He's The Dollar"?





He's A Pilgrim (Lyrics)

<!-- -->
<!-- -->
See him wasted on the sidewalk in his jacket and his jeans
Wearing yesterdays misfortune like a smile
Once he had a future full of money, love and dreams
Which he'd spend like they were going out of style

And he keeps right on a changin' for the better or the worse
Searchin' for a shrine he has never found
Never known' if believin' is a blessin' or a curse
Or if the going up was worth the comin' down

(Chorus)

He's a poet, he's a picker, he's a prophet, he's a pusher
He's a pligrim and a preacher and a problem when he's stoned
He's a walking contradiction, plartly truth and partly fiction
Taking every wrong direction on his lonley way back home

He has tasted good and evil, in your bedrooms and your bars
And he's traded-in tomorrow for today
Running from his devils Lord, reachin' for the stars
Loosin' all his love along the way

But if this world keeps right on turnin' for the better or the worst
And all he ever gets is older and around
From the rockin' of the cradle to the rollin' of the hearse
The goin' up was worth the comin' down

(chorus)

He's a poet, he's a picker, he's a prophet, he's a pusher
He a pilgrim and a preacher and a problem when he's stoned
He's a walking contradiction, partly truth and partly fiction
Taking every wrong direction on his lonley way back home

There's been a lot of wrong directions on that lonley way back home.

Verrocchio
11-25-08, 11:03 PM
I've never been a huge fan of Kris Kristofferson as an entertainer, but he is perhaps one of the better song writers of my time. A new title perhaps: "He's America" or "He's The Dollar"?





He's A Pilgrim (Lyrics)

<!-- -->
<!-- -->
See him wasted on the sidewalk in his jacket and his jeans
Wearing yesterdays misfortune like a smile
Once he had a future full of money, love and dreams
Which he'd spend like they were going out of style

And he keeps right on a changin' for the better or the worse
Searchin' for a shrine he has never found
Never known' if believin' is a blessin' or a curse
Or if the going up was worth the comin' down

(Chorus)

He's a poet, he's a picker, he's a prophet, he's a pusher
He's a pligrim and a preacher and a problem when he's stoned
He's a walking contradiction, plartly truth and partly fiction
Taking every wrong direction on his lonley way back home

He has tasted good and evil, in your bedrooms and your bars
And he's traded-in tomorrow for today
Running from his devils Lord, reachin' for the stars
Loosin' all his love along the way

But if this world keeps right on turnin' for the better or the worst
And all he ever gets is older and around
From the rockin' of the cradle to the rollin' of the hearse
The goin' up was worth the comin' down

(chorus)

He's a poet, he's a picker, he's a prophet, he's a pusher
He a pilgrim and a preacher and a problem when he's stoned
He's a walking contradiction, partly truth and partly fiction
Taking every wrong direction on his lonley way back home

There's been a lot of wrong directions on that lonley way back home.

Here's KK singing Pilgrim on YouTube.
<object width="425" height="344">


<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2NAaiRYUBos&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></object>

metalman
11-25-08, 11:07 PM
Here's KK singing Pilgrim on YouTube.

is this a joke? kris kristofferson? bwah ha ha ha!

strittmatter
11-25-08, 11:26 PM
is this a joke? kris kristofferson? bwah ha ha ha!

Again, stick with the lyrics.

Chief Tomahawk
11-26-08, 12:11 AM
Metalman, "Top Investors" is a feature which appears on the menu bar above once one is logged in. You have a portfolio there.

jimmygu3
11-26-08, 12:38 AM
I've never been a huge fan of John Parr as an entertainer, but he is perhaps one of the finest song writers of my time.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jVf4_WglzWA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jVf4_WglzWA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

santafe2
11-26-08, 01:21 AM
LAYUPS OF SHIPS REFLECT DETERIORATION IN WORLD’S CONTAINER TRADE (http://www.shippingdigest.com/news/article.asp?sid=5668&ltype=maritime)
November 24, 2008 (PETER T. LEACH – Shipping Digest)

If current trends continue, Ron Widdows says, he’ll soon be able to see much of the world’s container ship fleet from his office window in Singapore. The chief executive of Neptune Orient Lines is joking, but it’s gallows humor — the growing number of laid-up ships is a sign of hard times that are likely to become worseHum, so you think this chart shows a downturn in the cost of shipping "stuff" across the sea?! Maybe you're right. I wouldn't ski on a slope like this.

840

Chris
11-26-08, 03:15 AM
Maybe they were only shipping Rhodium? ;)

Chief Tomahawk
11-26-08, 09:38 AM
"Watch Kudlow’s show and you’ll see what I mean."

MUSTARD SEEDS!!!!!

I have a friend in construction in CA and as you might guess, he's at home most of the time now, leaving him plenty of time to watch CNBC. The other day he said he's "so sick and tired of hearing this guy talk about mustard seeds." I couldn't help but laugh as I knew exactly who he is talking about.

dbarberic
11-26-08, 12:09 PM
"Watch Kudlow’s show and you’ll see what I mean."

MUSTARD SEEDS!!!!!

I have a friend in construction in CA and as you might guess, he's at home most of the time now, leaving him plenty of time to watch CNBC. The other day he said he's "so sick and tired of hearing this guy talk about mustard seeds." I couldn't help but laugh as I knew exactly who he is talking about.

Can you explain the mustard seed reference? I try to never watch CNBC, it makes me puke.

Chief Tomahawk
11-28-08, 09:36 AM
D, I take it as Kudlow searching for signs of recovery. For instance, one of Kudlow's mustard seeds has been falling gas prices at the pump giving the consumer a pocketbook injection.

Kudlow's show though at least gives a chance for a bear or bears to state their case, at least until Larry cuts them off and/or talks over them. Ironically, his show gives the most steady diet of bears and bear arguments on CNBC. Classic show moments were Roubini seated next to Kudlow in the studio and no sooner would Larry finish championing Goldilocks than Nouriel would, in his deadpan, nononsense style, predict imminent recession. Another, longstanding thing Kudlow does is introduce A. Gary Shilling, longtime housing bear, with a black and white tornado clip to represent housing in freefall. Check out Shilling's website; he has a summary of his calls for 2008 and he's been pretty accurate. No wonder why on Kudlow's show Shilling points his finger and argues back when said host tries to pull his "talk over you" routine crapola.

Chris Coles
11-28-08, 10:58 AM
Next year the fiction will be dispelled that governments can stop debt deflation by means that do not either produce mass unemployment or horrific inflation. As they try and repeatedly fail to meet expectations the Period of False Hope and Uncertainty will give way to the Era of Total Despair, and then we will see a bottom.

This is the kernel, the core of the debate. Most of us are here on iTulip because we also believe that EJ is correct to so describe the next stages of the scenario before us. If we add the possibility of the same sort of "events" we are watching in India this week, happening in London or New York then anything could happen next year and I for one believe we must batten down the hatches and be prepared for anything.

Munger
11-28-08, 04:05 PM
I think he is talking about Greenspan:
<embed style = "height:385px !important; width:480px !important;" src="http://xml.truveo.com/eb/i/2797116673/a/58ef677afb89fc040e3dec6de7dd6c26/p/1" flashvars="m=1475724476&type=video&a=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width=" 425" height=" 341"></embed>

metalman
11-28-08, 04:18 PM
bwah! the videos posted with this thread are killing me!

steveaustin2006
11-29-08, 06:36 PM
I don't see why it must get worse before a currency devaluation takes place to deflate the debt. Could a dollar devaluation not take place at any time now?

Isn't unsterilized monetization only one baby step beyond QE?

Contemptuous
11-30-08, 02:33 PM
Steveaustin2006 -

Here is Jack Crooks (currency trading veteran) talking about what is happening to the USD. I am a loyal friend to the precious metals in this global environment, and I think their time will come. But I now count myself among the skeptics as to the inevitability of iTulip's USD currency devaluation occurring in the near future. The large and exceedingly nebulous "grey area" regarding the near term future of the USD valuation is not what happens TO the USD, but rather what continues to unfold AROUND the USD, in the rest of the world's currencies. Jack Crooks is putting forward some increasingly compelling arguments.

I believe we are in for a period of several years of amazingly persistent USD strength as we observe a progressive disintegration of multiple currencies worldwide. This is one area where iTulip's exceedingly rational assessment may be kept waiting for longer than they project. The notion is that in a world of disintegrating currencies the USD zone can even see massive monetization of debt and debt service while the poom is held in abeyance pending the subsiding of collapses in other currencies. Poom in the USD cannot occur before repudiation of the USD becomes manifest, and if two or three or a half dozen currencies or national debt markets are imploding each year the USD simply is not given any fixed benchmark of other currencies against which to collapse.

Imagine this: a massive monetization of the debt occurring with it's "inevitable" inflationary outcome held in curious suspended animation for several years, because the explosions occurring in minor currencies the world over, and minor debt markets, can create such frightening mayhem outside the USD zone that it simply denies the USD anything fixed or firm overseas to drop against. Every month now I feel more inclined to think this is what's going to work out. It will stump some of the smartest observers, who look at the debt trap and insist that massive debt inflation becomes the sole plausible sequel. Of course large inflation is the outcome - but there is danger in too implicit an assumption that this must necessarily arrive rapidly because "US debt and approaching monetization are unsustainable". Sure they are unsustainable, but the event may be a lot slower arriving than we assume.

Yes, massive debt inflation will be attempted with deadly seriousness - and debt monetization is therefore overwhelmingly likely to be in our future - but a currency cannot collapse unless it's sister currencies provide a fixed point for it to collapse against, and global currencies won't give the USD this option for the next two or three years, IMO. Very "paradoxical" but then the markets exist to fool most of us, most of the time. Dollar is just tipping into what could be a sizeable short term correction of it's rise, but I am a USD bull for the next couple of years. Whether I've "drunk the kool-aid" or have "seen the true light" remains to be seen.

I'm going to be selling a modest portion of my (somewhat immoderate) PM holdings into this just-emerging rally just because I am over-allocated by a large extent, but the rest is going to remain firmly held for the larger trade within the small trade, but the point is I may have to wait 3 years for this paradox market to finally break down due to more fundamental issues in the USD.


I don't see why it must get worse before a currency devaluation takes place to deflate the debt. Could a dollar devaluation not take place at any time now? Isn't unsterilized monetization only one baby step beyond QE?


Why This "Mouse" Is About to Roar! - by Jack Crooks

Most investors are understandably fixating on the spectacle of the U.S. debt crisis and Washington's $7.8 trillion in loans, investments, commitments and guarantees designed to end it.

So when a significant deadline passed two weeks ago in a remote corner of the global economy, virtually no one noticed. It's a small event with big implications ... that provides a valuable clue to the shoe that's most likely to drop next in this crisis ... and that also presents you with one of your best opportunities for profits.

The news that gets lost in the cacophony of reports about the U.S. economy is this: Two major crises now hammering emerging nations:

First, sinking exports.

Over the last few years, the historic economic growth in emerging markets like Ukraine, South Korea, the Czech Republic, Poland, and others was driven almost entirely by demand for their exports from the U.S. and Europe.

Now, with the U.S. and Eurozone economies sliding, that demand has started to evaporate. And because these countries have little domestic demand to drive their economies, they've suddenly been thrown into a struggle for their very survival.

Second, plunging oil.

As the economic crisis has slashed oil prices by nearly two-thirds, oil-producing emerging nations — Russia, Venezuela, Ecudor and others — are suddenly starving for cash to pay their bills.

Combined, these two events are now conspiring to set off a chain reaction that will bring the biggest creditors to these emerging markets — such as Europe and the UK — to their knees. When the history books are written, two key dates will be cited as moments when critical warnings were clearly telegraphed, duly recorded and promptly ignored until it was too late:

Key Date #1: Thursday, November 13. Seventeen days ago, the government of Ecuador failed to pay interest on bonds it had sold to investors. Citing plunging oil revenues, the government postponed its interest payments for a full month.

Key Date #2: Monday, December 15. Fifteen days from today, Ecuador must make those interest payments plus interest for the month of November. If it fails — if Ecuador defaults on its government bonds — it's could be first the domino in a chain reaction of government debt defaults that will sweep the globe.

Tiny Ecuador: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Is Ecuador a big player? Of course not. But it's merely the first one. As you read this, governments throughout Asia and Europe are facing similar circumstances: Foreign demand for the products they produce is virtually non-existent ... their own citizens are unable to buy the products their factories produce ... and even oil producing nations are starving for cash as energy prices crater.

Russia is now begging China for a $25 billion loan to save its cash-strapped energy companies. Its foreign currency reserves have plunged $122.7 billion — a full 21% — in just 3 ½ months. Foreign investors are stampeding for the exits.

A few days ago, leaders from 21 nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and three other international organizations attended an emergency, two-day summit to address the catastrophe among emerging nations. Japan pledged $100 billion for emergency loans to the governments of South Korea, India, Indonesia and other economies and urged other potential donor nations to do the same.

Similar stories can be told about dozens of emerging economies throughout Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America: They're drowning in debt they built up during the good times ... and now, with their exports vanishing before their very eyes, their economies are cratering.

Why should we care that these emergency economies are on the verge of collapse?

Because ...

European Banks Loaned These Countries - A Staggering $3.5 Trillion. When They Go Down, So Will Europe's Largest Banks!

Fortunately for us, U.S. banks loaned only $500 billion to these emerging markets and Japanese banks loaned them only $200 billion. But European banks loaned them a whopping $3.5 trillion — five times more than the U.S. and Japan combined.

Amazingly, European banks loaned these countries amounts so large they're the equivalent of a whopping 21% of their Eurozone's total GDP, according to Bank for International Settlements. And when you look at individual countries, the numbers are even larger:

In Sweden, banks loaned an amount equal to 25% of that country's GDP ...
Swiss banks loaned the equivalent of 50% — fully HALF — of Switzerland's total GDP ...

And Austrian banks loaned an amount equal to 85% that nation's GDP — with 80% going to the countries in Eastern Europe that are now suffering the greatest economic pain of all!

Now, these emerging markets are being squeezed mercilessly. Investors are fleeing. Credit is as rare as hens' teeth. Exports are slumping and income is vanishing.


Now, as these once-emerging countries sink into depression, those loans are beginning to go sour. European banks are ALREADY getting hammered for huge loan losses — and investors who own their shares are ALREADY getting slammed. My forecast: You're going to see ...
Huge loan defaults in emerging markets like Ecuador, Hungary, Ukraine, and Argentina ...


Massive losses and even outright failures among Europe's largest banks ...


Panic selling on stock exchanges throughout the Eurozone ...


A massive flight to safety — OUT of euros ...

ThePythonicCow
11-30-08, 04:02 PM
A massive flight to safety — OUT of euros ...
The currency collapse, as seen by a veteran currency trader, begins.

Already we've seen the huge, complex mortgage backed debt market enter its collapse, stressing many and taking down those too close.

Other bubbles that remain to pop:



World-wide inbalances in trade, mining, farming, manufacturing and shipping have been built up since the Second World War. Chinese farmers migrate to the city to build trinkets for fancy houses that Americans buy on debt paid for by shuffling paper between Peking and Washington. Dubai builds cities of immense architectural wonders on oil wealth. Such imbalances cannot persist (though they can last a long time.)
The political promises of tomorrow to American voters of today, seen in the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.
The still large nominal present day value of anticipated future pension fund, IRA and 401K withdrawals remains to be cut down to size (by confiscation, taxation, rules changes, investment losses, defaults and inflation.)
The social problems in many other nations and in some failing American cities and regions will grow immense as this world wide economic, trading and financial bubble collapses.

I do not think that the other nations will stand by idle while their currencies bleed to death as the Dollar stands strong. As Caesar turned to Brutus one day, so the Dollar will turn to the Yen: "Et tu, Yen?"

So long as the financial and economic pain is not too great, the other (non-Dollar) nations will have difficulty mustering the resolve for a frontal attack on the Dollar.

I saw a stunning video clip last week of the world leaders mounting a stage at their big economic summit for a group photo. As they walked past each other, they ostentiously shook hands and shared smiles with each other, except for one man. No one would look George Bush in the eye or offer a hand. He was being ostracized, quite publicly, on the (literal) world stage. The world is preparing to turn on America, just as its leaders turned the back of their hands to Bush.

The transition to Obama may buy the Dollar a little time, as world leaders are optimistic that he will be someone with whom they can better work. But the same Banksters remain in the real positions of financial power in America. The honeymoon will be short; the falling out brutal.

Like most of us watching this collapse, we see the part we know collapsing and predict that part will fall next (implicitly assuming the rest that we don't personally know so well will not change so much right away.)

I saw the same thing whenever I took over managing some new group of computer programmers in my previous life. I could quickly tell who was expert in what by presenting some scary but ill-defined problem to the group. The widget guy would immediately volunteer how it was a failure of widgets that he could remedy; the gadget guy would similarly offer up a diagnosis and remedy involving gadgets; similary the doohicky and whatsits engineers. In thirty minutes of listening, I could go from having almost no clue what the group did, to knowing in what each person in the group took pride. I hear stories that people seeking medical advice find the same thing; the diagnosis and prescription reflect more on the expertise of the doctor attending them than on the particulars of their condition.

In short, I don't think that this currency trader has proven to me that the non-Dollar currencies of the world will collapse as the Dollar stands. I think he has just proven to me that he is an expert in the strengths and weaknesses of the worlds non-Dollar currencies, especially the Euro.

Jam
11-30-08, 04:08 PM
Hum, so you think this chart shows a downturn in the cost of shipping "stuff" across the sea?! Maybe you're right. I wouldn't ski on a slope like this.

840

Wow! And it is a logarithmic scale. On the flip side, does it mean that shipping was a hugely profitable business just 6 months ago?

Contemptuous
11-30-08, 04:24 PM
Pythonic Cow - I am heavily invested in your thesis, and so I'm effectively short Jack Crook's thesis in my posture - needless to say, the bulk of my investments would prosper mightily should you be correct - but with every passing month I conclude further that for the next two or three years, you won't be correct.


The currency collapse, as seen by a veteran currency trader, begins.

Already we've seen the huge, complex mortgage backed debt market enter its collapse, stressing many and taking down those too close.

Other bubbles that remain to pop:


World-wide inbalances in trade, mining, farming, manufacturing and shipping have been built up since the Second World War. Chinese farmers migrate to the city to build trinkets for fancy houses that Americans buy on debt paid for by shuffling paper between Peking and Washington. Dubai builds cities of immense architectural wonders on oil wealth. Such imbalances cannot persist (though they can last a long time.)
The political promises of tomorrow to American voters of today, seen in the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.
The still large nominal present day value of anticipated future pension fund, IRA and 401K withdrawals remains to be cut down to size (by confiscation, taxation, rules changes, investment losses, defaults and inflation.)
The social problems in many other nations and in some failing American cities and regions will grow immense as this world wide economic, trading and financial bubble collapses.
I do not think that the other nations will stand by idle while their currencies bleed to death as the Dollar stands strong. As Caesar turned to Brutus one day, so the Dollar will turn to the Yen: "Et tu, Yen?"

So long as the financial and economic pain is not too great, the other (non-Dollar) nations will have difficulty mustering the resolve for a frontal attack on the Dollar.

I saw a stunning video clip last week of the world leaders mounting a stage at their big economic summit for a group photo. As they walked past each other, they ostentiously shook hands and shared smiles with each other, except for one man. No one would look George Bush in the eye or offer a hand. He was being ostracized, quite publicly, on the (literal) world stage. The world is preparing to turn on America, just as its leaders turned the back of their hands to Bush.

The transition to Obama may buy the Dollar a little time, as world leaders are optimistic that he will be someone with whom they can better work. But the same Banksters remain in the real positions of financial power in America. The honeymoon will be short; the falling out brutal.

Like most of us watching this collapse, we see the part we know collapsing and predict that part will fall next (implicitly assuming the rest that we don't personally know so well will not change so much right away.)

I saw the same thing whenever I took over managing some new group of computer programmers in my previous life. I could quickly tell who was expert in what by presenting some scary but ill-defined problem to the group. The widget guy would immediately volunteer how it was a failure of widgets that he could remedy; the gadget guy would similarly offer up a diagnosis and remedy involving gadgets; similary the doohicky and whatsits engineers. In thirty minutes of listening, I could go from having almost no clue what the group did, to knowing in what each person in the group took pride. I hear stories that people seeking medical advice find the same thing; the diagnosis and prescription reflect more on the expertise of the doctor attending them than on the particulars of their condition.

In short, I don't think that this currency trader has proven to me that the non-Dollar currencies of the world will collapse as the Dollar stands. I think he has just proven to me that he is an expert in the strengths and weaknesses of the worlds non-Dollar currencies, especially the Euro.

Smitty
11-30-08, 04:30 PM
No "bottom" until the debt is gone

Is it conceivable that the massive governmental response to the credit crisis with the trillions of dollars to be spent will avert a further bottoming out of the debt deflation cycle and lead to a quicker ramp-up of inflationary expectations, i.e. could Ka be aborted sooner than we think leading to Poom sooner than we think, or am I merely being suckered into buying this rally?

No one can deny the values that stocks have fallen to. In my opinion, it would take further massive debt deflation and a collapse in earnings expectations below where stocks are now priced to drive stocks below their 7552 DJIA low.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

metalman
11-30-08, 05:18 PM
No "bottom" until the debt is gone

Is it conceivable that the massive governmental response to the credit crisis with the trillions of dollars to be spent will avert a further bottoming out of the debt deflation cycle and lead to a quicker ramp-up of inflationary expectations, i.e. could Ka be aborted sooner than we think leading to Poom sooner than we think, or am I merely being suckered into buying this rally?

No one can deny the values that stocks have fallen to. In my opinion, it would take further massive debt deflation and a collapse in earnings expectations below where stocks are now priced to drive stocks below their 7552 DJIA low.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

you're being suckered into buying this rally... again. this is how the insiders always get out with their money out after the racket is over... and how they've been getting out of the usa stock market since dec. 2007. rally after rally through the debt deflation bear market, systematically they separate retail investors from their money. amazing how it keeps working! sucker them in, take their money. sucker them in, take their money. sucker them in, take their money. lab rats in cages learn faster than traders in this bear market... even rats don't keep hitting the 'feed' lever after it zaps 5 times with 1000 volts each time.

'maybe it won't zap me this time!' says the trader, now down 50%. 'ok, i was wrong about the bottom at 11000 and 10500 and 10000 and 9500 and 9000... but 7900... that was the bottom. now we're going to 9500 fast. yes, i can FEEL it! and i got these charts that show the dangle doo dah ratio to the intermediate whatnot. and this newsletter from joe genius guru trader dude. it's a sure thing!'

'don't do it', says the rat, watching from his cage.

ZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAPPPPPPP!

the rat shakes his heads in disbelief as the market tanks to 6500 on the news that the ultimate fire econ 'industrial' company ge is going out of business (http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/g/ge) despite a previously unacknowledged $500billion infusion, and the usa airline industry will be nationalized, and so on.

you'll know when the markets hit bottom... all the online brokers will be out of business after all the retail investors' money that can be stolen is gone. you go to use your account you get a big message pops up... ACCOUNT CLOSED! THANKS FOR PLAYING!

ThePythonicCow
11-30-08, 05:24 PM
Pythonic Cow - I am heavily invested in your thesis, and so I'm effectively short Jack Crook's thesis in my posture - needless to say, the bulk of my investments would prosper mightily should you be correct - but with every passing month I conclude further that for the next two or three years, you won't be correct.

If by "my thesis" you mean the thesis that the Dollar will collapse sooner rather than later, then perhaps it is coming time to ask what happens after -both- the Euro and the Dollar have suffered severe damage. I was not so much disagreeing with Jack Crook as pointing out the rather predictable observer bias in his comments. He might still be right.

The time is coming to stock up on physical goods and property and to arrange ones life so as to minimize ones dependency on any currency.

For those of us, perhaps including you or me, who are fortunate enough to have modest unspent wealth (be it $10K or $10M) left over after making these arrangements, I'd advise keeping light on ones feet and dispersed, so that one can move ones uncommitted wealth quickly, and so that being blind sided by either of


a some sudden, inescapable turn of events or
a some stupid investment decision on ones own part

doesn't entirely wipe out ones stash.

One should avoid positioning ones liquid wealth so that one has to decide now the final outcome of the race to the bottom of the worlds currencies. Rather one should look to be more right than wrong on the intermediate changes in trends.

ThePythonicCow
11-30-08, 05:33 PM
with 1000 volts each time.

Ah - but we get to control the voltage.

I still play in the market with perhaps ten percent of my money just so that I keep some skin in the game. My reptilian brain simply doesn't learn at any school other than that of Hard Knocks. Fortunately, my cortex gets to set the price of tuition.

We're all crash test dummies on the maiden voyage and sinking of the worlds largest ever Financial SuperTanker. No one told us how this tanker was designed; we're having to reverse engineer it as it crashes and sinks, while we frantically search about for safer positions and life boats and sea rations.

The more one can learn about various parts of the Tanker, without getting killed in the process, the better ones chances should be.

goadam1
11-30-08, 08:12 PM
Look at the s and p 500. If it earns $70 and people want to pay a premium at 20x earnings then strap on the rockets. If it earns $60 and people feel bearish at 10x earnings then look out below. Your play. But I think you invest by paying a fair price in cash and risk for return. Cash feels pretty good to me right now. I will keep looking for what I think will make money at a fair price. Things feel a little expensive. For risk to reward: if we aren't in a full collapse then corporate bonds and senior debt are looking tasty.

jtabeb
11-30-08, 11:10 PM
you're being suckered into buying this rally... again. this is how the insiders always get out with their money out after the racket is over... and how they've been getting out of the usa stock market since dec. 2007. rally after rally through the debt deflation bear market, systematically they separate retail investors from their money. amazing how it keeps working! sucker them in, take their money. sucker them in, take their money. sucker them in, take their money. lab rats in cages learn faster than traders in this bear market... even rats don't keep hitting the 'feed' lever after it zaps 5 times with 1000 volts each time.

'maybe it won't zap me this time!' says the trader, now down 50%. 'ok, i was wrong about the bottom at 11000 and 10500 and 10000 and 9500 and 9000... but 7900... that was the bottom. now we're going to 9500 fast. yes, i can FEEL it! and i got these charts that show the dangle doo dah ratio to the intermediate whatnot. and this newsletter from joe genius guru trader dude. it's a sure thing!'

'don't do it', says the rat, watching from his cage.

ZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAPPPPPPP!

the rat shakes his heads in disbelief as the market tanks to 6500 on the news that the ultimate fire econ 'industrial' company ge is going out of business (http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/g/ge) despite a previously unacknowledged $500billion infusion, and the usa airline industry will be nationalized, and so on.

you'll know when the markets hit bottom... all the online brokers will be out of business after all the retail investors' money that can be stolen is gone. you go to use your account you get a big message pops up... ACCOUNT CLOSED! THANKS FOR PLAYING!

Isn't the whole question "how bad do things have to get before the Gov ponies up with a truly MASSIVE inflationary PUSH?" Is that not why people are still paying for their "tuition". Do you think that the BIG ONE (inflation) is NOT coming?

All questions, wish I had answers for them.

santafe2
12-02-08, 01:21 PM
Wow! And it is a logarithmic scale. On the flip side, does it mean that shipping was a hugely profitable business just 6 months ago?

Baltic Dry Index is down from ~11,800 in mid May to 700 today. That's a drop of 94% but the actual daily shipping rate has dropped 99% according to this article. I'm going to file this one away so I can read it the next time I'm feeling put-out by our own business environment.


CAPESIZE and panamax indices are...<has moved="" down="">$2,316 per day, less than 1% of the record high of $233,988 recorded on June 5.
“It’s difficult to see how much lower it can go. This is desperate stuff,” said a Baltic Exchange freight market representative. If the rates continue to plummet the index may approach its lowest recorded level of 554, in early August 1986. The rates are falling off a cliff not just because there is so little demand for raw materials. That lack of demand is feeding on itself. Demand for raw materials has fallen to a point where it's not profitable for many producers to process and sell the materials that go in the tankers.

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/baltic-capesize-and-panamax-indices-hit-rock-bottom/20017596233.htm</has>

Chris Coles
12-02-08, 03:36 PM
Isn't the whole question "how bad do things have to get before the Gov ponies up with a truly MASSIVE inflationary PUSH?" Is that not why people are still paying for their "tuition". Do you think that the BIG ONE (inflation) is NOT coming?

All questions, wish I had answers for them.

Considering your location, by any chance you sit at the bottom of a deep concrete bunker with your finger on a red button?:eek:

jtabeb
12-02-08, 05:58 PM
Considering your location, by any chance you sit at the bottom of a deep concrete bunker with your finger on a red button?:eek:

I'm not a conehead if that's what you are refering to. (air force parlence for a missileer)

Chris Coles
12-02-08, 06:14 PM
I'm not a conehead if that's what you are refering to. (air force parlence for a missileer)

With a beard like that, I did think you were a retrograde geek with attitude and a penchant for the outdoor life.

Rajiv
12-02-08, 07:31 PM
With a beard like that, I did think you were a retrograde geek with attitude and a penchant for the outdoor life.

If I am not mistaken, that is a picture of "Karl Marx (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx)" during his days in London

cjppjc
02-22-09, 09:53 AM
Pythonic Cow - I am heavily invested in your thesis, and so I'm effectively short Jack Crook's thesis in my posture - needless to say, the bulk of my investments would prosper mightily should you be correct - but with every passing month I conclude further that for the next two or three years, you won't be correct.

Wow. Great thread. The strong dollar vs weak dollar is a facinatiing debate. All points of view resonate with me. It does seem however the the Euro is dommed. And like rats from a sinking ship capital will come to the U.S. dollar. Never mind the structural imbalances. The deficit spending. Maybe the Euro goes first then the dollar and the time frame is shorter than most would think.

goadam1
02-22-09, 05:07 PM
Remind me to never doubt you.

metalman
02-22-09, 08:20 PM
Remind me to never doubt you.

losing $$$ fading itulip is all the negative reinforcement i've ever needed.

goadam1
02-26-09, 11:09 PM
All the smart money guys I know, the ones who do their own trades and say this coming are gloomier than EJ. Of course, it is how they make a living so we shouldn't be surprised. Now I'm going to be in trouble warning people to set a little aside in case of dollar collapse.

Me
03-01-09, 01:40 AM
I have my own "relative" theory.
The 3 currency systems that exist.

Forget about currencies as we think of them. Euro, Pounds, Dollars, Yen and Peso’s etc.
These are more like derivatives of the same system. All have the same 3 currency systems involved.

First currency system
Hard cash.
This is something of physical value. Theoretically it could be cattle (it is with many African tribes), Steel, oil or gold. Gold has for many reasons we are familiar with, been the best choice for thousands of years.

Second currency system
Cash backed by a physical asset. These are the paper IOU’s in everyday circulation. Backed by this cash is the “full faith and credit” of the issuer. This is the cash we are more familiar with. This sort of cash carries a higher risk with it since it is not the real cash but a promise to pay the real cash on demand (or used to be). The risk is relative to the issuer of the IOU.

Third currency system
Credit.
This is the promise to pay the second currency type above.
Some may argue that this is not a currency and I would agree to an extent with that supposition. Credit is not cash, and the most distinctive feature as to what differentiates credit from cash, is that it is a promise to pay something. This is where things get murky as I have said that the 2nd currency type is also a promise to pay. Mmm.

Lets get back to credit for a minute though. Since this is a risky type of money it attracts a cost. The cost is the interest paid along with some form of collateral put up in the event of default.

In an environment where the second currency system (cash as we use it in everyday life) loses its value quickly (inflationary environment) this is a cost or risk to holding this currency form. If the rate of loss of value of this currency is say 5% annually and the cost of credit is for example 5% then there is no longer much difference between the two currency systems. That of credit and cash. The only risk difference is that between the collateral backing the issuance of each piece of paper. In the first instance the collateral of a government that issues paper bills (currency system 2) and the collateral behind the particular credit agreement. (real estate, motor vehicles, plant and machinery). This sort of environment will never last for a long period of time since credit is inherently riskier than cash so the 5% will be raised to compensate for the higher risk relative to holding cash……unless market participants are not left to determine the price of risk. In other words where central banks intervene to “price the risk” for the market. Times like now.

By keeping interest rates on credit at or below the level of inflation a situation is created where credit is actually money given to you and you are paid to take it. This you will do provided you are able to take the proceeds of the credit and achieve at least the inflation rate. Caveat here:
I am talking of monetary inflation and not consumer price inflation. As one is the cause, the other the symptom and just like a cancer can grow in your skull without causing noticeable effects immediately the effects are inescapable….at some point.

These two elements of credit being collateral and interest have both been dragged down to the level where they were close enough to cash IOU’s as to render them almost as good as cash. This is why I am calling them a currency system in their own right.

So we have a situation where credit is ridiculously mispriced due to government intervention in the economy. Currency system 3 is mispriced.
We also have a situation where currency system 2 is being inflated wildly far in excess % wise of the price of currency system 3 (credit). Cash therefore is mispriced.

Jack's argument seems to be that this is happening all over the world and the US is still the reserve currency and has the largest economy and the deepest capital markets and most transparent so wins by default.

I agree when viewing it relative to other derivatives of the same nature (EURO, SGD, GBP etc) but what if we view it relative to the first currency system?
Yes relative to the first currency system. The original currency system that the second system was meant to be created upon. IOU’s used to be backed by tangibles. That ceased with the closing of the gold window. Then we had a boom in the 3rd currency system, that of credit. Central banks are frantically attempting to keep this system afloat. It is currently on life support. In order to stem the implosion of this 3rd system they are pumping up the second system (IOU’s) which will cause the same sort of collapse in that system as the 3rd. The problem of course is that both the IOU system and the credit system rely on the faith of the issuer of those pieces of paper. The first system has no allegiance to any country, central bank or anyone. It pays no interest and does nothing but sit there. It too has been mispriced but not by governments.

The herd like citizen has gotten complacent and come to believe that “they will never let that happen”. I often hear people tell me this and it makes me laugh.
“They” don’t have any idea what they are doing and looking to the perpetrators of mess to solve the mess is simply stupid.

What if the market realizes that gold is not a commodity but money? What then?

srivatsan
05-13-09, 05:29 PM
We all know that EJ posted info about Singapore Shipping Industry end of '08.

Here is the latest News:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/business/global/13ship.html?em

Nothing new per se... reinforcing events....

Cheers.

FRED
05-13-09, 08:02 PM
We all know that EJ posted info about Singapore Shipping Industry end of '08.

Here is the latest News:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/business/global/13ship.html?em

Nothing new per se... reinforcing events....

Cheers.

Looking at the Baltic Dry Goods Index over the past year, the picture isn't so good.


http://www.itulip.com/images/bdiy1yr.gif


Go back five years, and things don't look so bad.


http://www.itulip.com/images/bdiy5yr.gif


In fact, a completely different question comes to mind:


http://www.itulip.com/images/balticquestion.gif

Slimprofits
05-13-09, 08:17 PM
http://www.itulip.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=11&pictureid=71

metalman
05-13-09, 10:22 PM
yeh, see what greenspam's bailouts did to make the 2002 - 2008 bubble? just imagine what benny boy's pumping will do....

greenspam's a piker.... a fine tuned targeted inflation bomber compared to our benny.

<embed id="VideoPlayback" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=2046393742348211186&hl=en&fs=true" style="width: 400px; height: 326px;" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" type="application/x-shockwave-flash">

srivatsan
05-14-09, 04:16 PM
Fred:
Akin to the picture you added yesterday, the rents are falling too early 90s'.

Here it is: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6DMLSwbH.aQ&refer=exclusive

Cheers.

cjppjc
05-14-09, 08:41 PM
Fred:
Akin to the picture you added yesterday, the rents are falling too early 90s'.

Here it is: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6DMLSwbH.aQ&refer=exclusive

Cheers.

Has anyone here mentioned all the condo/tells being built in prepartion for the 2012 olympics. Those prices must have cratered.