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phirang
11-11-08, 10:55 PM
and hypertiger delivers most of it:

http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/

jk
11-11-08, 11:16 PM
hypertiger appears not to understand how very large finite numbers can become and yet still, somehow, be less than infinity.

phirang
11-11-08, 11:33 PM
yes, but she understands something very basic that no one here has mentioned:

there are two sources of money supply:

1) central banks
2) commercial lending

the bubble is 100% #2, not #1.

This is why the USD is on a tear, and will remain on one, until the deleveraging ends.

friendly_jacek
11-11-08, 11:43 PM
The more I think about this crisis, the more I'm afraid it will be worse than the 1929. All the authorities can do at this moment is to make things as civil as possible. Yes, there will be ups and downs (inflations and deflations), but the direction is unmistakable.

phirang
11-11-08, 11:47 PM
This isn't 1929: this is 1938.

Contemptuous
11-12-08, 12:44 AM
You may be right Phirang. 1938 = a close fit for the upcoming trajectory of the CCI (due to what's about to occur with oil within 18 months, which may not have been strictly what you intended!). One difference might be that the deflation - inflation event is global today, whereas 1938 was more parochial. IEA's upcoming publication of trends between 2009-2015 is an eye opener. I doubt very much the world gets off the hook for that trend for more than another 18 months, due to the sheer size of the discrepancy approaching. A 9% depletion rate as a global average depletion rate, gobbles up a lot of slack in global energy demand in record time. This thing is going to create a gawd awful whiplash in due course.


This isn't 1929: this is 1938.

friendly_jacek
11-12-08, 11:08 PM
This thing is going to create a gawd awful whiplash in due course.

If it's true, it will create a huge wave of inflation followed by a deflation aftershock, just like we saw this very year. Either way we are doomed. Very few nimble investors will preserve their wealth.

However, I found it interesting how that leak had no impact on the steady selling.

c1ue
11-13-08, 03:35 AM
Yes, I always seek out those with a good grasp on grammar and a strong sense of humility to gain insights into what is coming:



Hypertiger Wisdoms


Various posts of the brilliant and insightful 'Hypertiger'