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View Full Version : Volcker Makes a Comeback as Part of Obama Brain Trust


GRG55
10-21-08, 07:52 AM
<SMALL>From the WSJ this morning</SMALL><SMALL>...</SMALL>
<SMALL></SMALL>
<SMALL>OCTOBER 21, 2008</SMALL>
Volcker Makes a Comeback as Part of Obama Brain Trust (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122454498635252109.html)

NEW YORK -- At 81 years old, former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker is getting a second chance to shape his legacy with a presidential hopeful more than 30 years his junior.

Mr. Volcker has emerged as a top economic adviser to Sen. Barack Obama during a presidential campaign dominated by a global financial crisis. Their growing bond is paying dividends for each man.

Mr. Volcker delivers gravitas and credibility to Sen. Obama, people in the Obama camp say, as well as ideas and approaches to the economic crisis. "Volcker whispering in Obama's ear will make even Republicans comfortable, because he's a hero of the right and a supporter of a strong dollar," says John Tamny, a supply-side economist and Republican...

For Mr. Volcker, a connection with Sen. Obama could help burnish his record as Fed chairman. The cigar-chomping central banker from 1979 to 1987, he received blame for driving up interest rates and tipping the U.S. into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. But Mr. Volcker is just as well known for taming the runaway inflation of that era. His stock has risen in recent months as his gruff warnings about the risks of deregulating the financial sector have come to look prescient. His successor's reputation, meanwhile, has come under a cloud. Alan Greenspan is under criticism that the low interest rates and deregulatory ideology of his tenure contributed to today's crisis.

With nearly every day presenting a fresh financial emergency, Sen. Obama has persuaded Mr. Volcker, who travels the globe for economic meetings and occasionally disappears on fly-fishing trips, to be at the ready; Mr. Volcker now keeps a cellphone on him at all times. And though he still doesn't own a computer (his assistant prints out emails for him), he's gotten used to Sen. Obama's rapid-fire messages sent from a BlackBerry device...

But for now, and going into the campaign's final weeks, aides say Sen. Obama is increasingly relying on Mr. Volcker. His staff now routinely reviews policy proposals and speeches with Mr. Volcker. Conference calls and face-to-face meetings of the Obama economic team are often reorganized to accommodate his schedule. When the team discusses the financial crisis, "The most important question to Obama: What does Paul Volcker think?" says Jason Furman, the campaign's economic-policy director."...

algerwetmore
10-21-08, 08:38 AM
I don't know about you, but I regard this as very positive for Obama and for the American economy. If Volcker can convince Americans to take their tough love now, then maybe we can pull ourselves out of this mess.

jtabeb
10-21-08, 09:32 AM
I don't know about you, but I regard this as very positive for Obama and for the American economy. If Volcker can convince Americans to take their tough love now, then maybe we can pull ourselves out of this mess.

Increasing rationality and frank discourse are always hopeful signs. I would agree as well. That does not mean there won't be pain, there will be. But, just maybe, that pain can actually serve a purpose and make our society better in the end.

phirang
10-21-08, 09:48 AM
What the hell can Volker do that matters?

I see this as window-dressing: the die is cast.

D-Mack
10-21-08, 10:09 AM
What the hell can Volker do that matters?

I see this as window-dressing: the die is cast.

make it worse?

The Outback Oracle
10-21-08, 10:14 AM
What the hell can Volker do that matters?

I see this as window-dressing: the die is cast.

Alia jacta est

Lukester
10-21-08, 11:20 AM
Obama will have a window of a year, maybe two years at the start of his term when he can harness Volker's views on inflation and bear down (somewhat) on inflation. He came out with an endorsement of Obama's campaign in January of 2008? Gold topped two months later. Gold may react under pressure for a full year to two years after Obama's government is installed, as Volker will have Obama's ear, and Obama will have his strongest mandate from Americans to bear down on inflation. In the second two years of his term that will of course be "out the window" as reelection pressures will coerce him as they do every president to goose the economy towards his reelection.

In short, if Volker is going to "do his thing" as an advisor wthin an Obama administration it will be within the first two years. Gold reacted way early to the Volcker / Obama teaming up back in early 2008. It will react way early also to the "Post Volker-influence" period half way into Obama's term. So if there is anything in this idea at all gold should be subdued under the "Volker threat" for maybe another year to 18 months at the outside and then begin to soar again. Of course it's all conjecture, but a prominent place for Volcker in an Obama administration will most definitely put a damper on gold. After the thrashing gold got from Volcker in 1980-1982 there's no way around that.

jk
10-21-08, 01:22 PM
why assume that volcker thinks the right policy in 1979 is still the right policy 30 years later? i have enough respect for him to disbelieve that assumption.

phirang
10-21-08, 01:26 PM
This whole thing is visibly a sham. They can make Borat Minister of Dollar, and it'd change nothing.

$#*
10-21-08, 04:21 PM
This whole thing is visibly a sham. They can make Borat Minister of Dollar, and it'd change nothing.
Exactly! Volker and Stiglitz are knowingly or unknowingly being drafted to act on a predetermined dollar script. It's getting funny and pathetic at the same time.

tombat1913
10-21-08, 04:56 PM
Increasing rationality and frank discourse are always hopeful signs. I would agree as well. That does not mean there won't be pain, there will be. But, just maybe, that pain can actually serve a purpose and make our society better in the end.

There may be pain for PM guys like us.

c1ue
10-21-08, 06:27 PM
Sorry, but Volcker was able to do what he did because he made a bargain with American business to break the power of unions in exchange for some economic tough love.

The unions are still gone. What's Volcker going to horse trade to get American business to go along with this time?

The Outback Oracle
10-22-08, 12:15 AM
I'm thinking his real problem will be that it's not AMERICAN business he has to talk to!

tombat1913
10-22-08, 07:56 AM
Sorry, but Volcker was able to do what he did because he made a bargain with American business to break the power of unions in exchange for some economic tough love.

The unions are still gone. What's Volcker going to horse trade to get American business to go along with this time?

Yeah, this is a whole other ballgame in many respects. I'm still sweating my PM positions a little. I don't know why I make long term investments and then watch the market daily, it's sadistic.

tombat1913
10-22-08, 07:56 AM
So how 'bout that Little Creatures?

jtabeb
10-22-08, 09:53 AM
Yeah, this is a whole other ballgame in many respects. I'm still sweating my PM positions a little. I don't know why I make long term investments and then watch the market daily, it's sadistic.

Dude, you ever want to sell, you know who to talk to first (Me, And I'll give you a good price:D)

The real stuff mind you, no paper shit.