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FRED
10-09-08, 09:38 AM
http://www.itulip.com/images/stock_market_crash.gifPost-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

The DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53268#post53268) call, our second such call in ten years.

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

don
10-09-08, 11:20 AM
I'm about even and I thank iTulip for part of that :)

jtabeb
10-09-08, 11:55 AM
I'm about even and I thank iTulip for part of that :)


I'm up about 5% net post crash. (depends on the reference date, I'm up 12.5% net since Dec 27 '07)

Supercilious
10-09-08, 12:37 PM
My portfolio is above 20% since Dec 2007, but I'm not sure I'm qualified for the vote since I'm a fairly new member and I'm following a different investment thesis ...

rlskaggs2003
10-09-08, 12:51 PM
Fortunately, up 25%.

BrianL
10-09-08, 01:04 PM
I've seen your thesis posts but am not experienced enough to map it to a your positions. Can you talk a bit about that?

Chief Tomahawk
10-09-08, 01:12 PM
Unfortunately I probably lead in the duckbill platapus race. Sold half my precious metal miners into yesterday's bounce. But they sure got boot-stomped in the past two weeks.

Coincidentally, my precious metal guru, Byron King, wrote again yesterday defending his "Six Screaming Buys". I'd post it here but I suspect mgmt. would not take kindly to reproduction of another's intellectual content, eventhough at this point Mr. King should probably be giving it away...

ASH
10-09-08, 01:36 PM
As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

As a follower of iTulip generally, but not iTulip's calls specifically, I have done okay. My net worth is almost exactly the same today as it was in December of 2007. However, during that time, my household income was halved because my wife quit working at the beginning of the year to have our first child. Also, this includes paying cash (amounting to about 5.6% of my net worth) for a new car, and other baby-related expenses. So, basically, I've broken even, despite a 50% loss of non-investment income, and a not-insignificant expenditure.

Details follow, although I recently posted much of the same information on the How One iTuliper is Invested (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2259&highlight=ituliper+invested) thread.

Actually, I took the post Before the Stroke of Midnight (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1680&highlight=stroke+midnight) to be a crash warning, and that was actually on 7/25/2007 rather than the now-official market top call in December. At that time, I was already out of the domestic stock market (having exited the broader market in March 2006, and my remaining sector-specific funds in October/November 2006), but I sold out of my large international positions in early August 2007, just after the "Midnight" post. Based on information from iTulip and some corroborating sources, I figured the jig was up, because the first dominos had started to fall. I still had some international bond holdings, but in January of this year, I decided that Europe might have some currency problems because of divergent national interests within the EU, so I exited that position. I have been about 80% precious metals and 20% cash since (some of the cash is Swiss Francs).

Here is an update to the deltas since I exited specific positions (all the losses I didn't take).

Domestic Value
left VIVAX in 03/2006 at 23.52; now 17.28 (-26.5%)

Domestic Energy and Insurance
left FSPCX in 10/2006 at 72.15; now 29.78 (-58.7%)
left FSENX in 11/2006 at 47.92; now 34.26 (-28.5%)
left VGENX in 11/2006 at 62.86; now 50.17 (-20.2%)

International Stock
left FNORX 8/2007 at 42.65; now 23.06 (-45.9%)
left FICDX 8/2007 at 54.33; now 42.32 (-22.1%)
left VTRIX 8/2007 at 40.91; now 25.77 (-37.0%)
left VGTSX 8/2007 at 18.02; now 11.67 (-35.2%)

International Bonds
left BEGBX 1/2008 at 14.90; now 13.92 (-6.6%)

Oh yeah... I almost forgot. I also made quite a bit of money by buying long-dated puts against the DJIA in late September of 2007 when the DJIA was pushing 14,000 (strike price at 13,600 if you can believe it!), selling half that position in January, reinforcing with new puts (strike at 12,000) in late April, selling about half of the position at the end of June, and finally selling the rest in early September. (Should have let that hand play out a bit longer!)

metalman
10-09-08, 01:37 PM
Unfortunately I probably lead in the duckbill platapus race. Sold half my precious metal miners into yesterday's bounce. But they sure got boot-stomped in the past two weeks.

Coincidentally, my precious metal guru, Byron King, wrote again yesterday defending his "Six Screaming Buys". I'd post it here but I suspect mgmt. would not take kindly to reproduction of another's intellectual content, eventhough at this point Mr. King should probably be giving it away...

meanwhile, over at paul douglas boyer's http://madmoneymachine.com/portfolios...
Professional Lazy Portfolios

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td width="64">ID</td> <td width="251">Professional Lazy Portfolio (http://madmoneymachine.com/professional-lazy-portfolios/)</td> <td width="60">Thru 30 Sep</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="64">L29</td> <td width="251">Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio</td> <td align="right" width="60">-2.2%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L04</td> <td>Ben Stein Retirement</td> <td align="right">-7.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L13</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Vanguard</td> <td align="right">-8.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L12</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio ETFs</td> <td align="right">-9.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L07</td> <td>John Wasnik’s Nano Investment Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-9.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L15</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Couch Potato Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-9.7%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L18</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Five Fold Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-10.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L22</td> <td>FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold</td> <td align="right">-10.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L14</td> <td>David Swensen’s Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-11.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L10</td> <td>William Bernstein’s No Brainer Cowards Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-11.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L17</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Four Square Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-12.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L19</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Six Ways from Sunday Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-12.2%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L09</td> <td>William Bernstein’s Basic No-Brainer Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-13.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L06</td> <td>Frank Armstrong’s Ideal Index Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-13.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L03</td> <td>Ben Stein 2007</td> <td align="right">-15.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L08</td> <td>Andrew Tobias’ Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-16.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L16</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Margarita (also Andrew Tobias) Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-16.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L11</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Three ETF</td> <td align="right">-16.7%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L27</td> <td>Bogle Tax-Sheltered</td> <td align="right">-17.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L28</td> <td>MMM SMILER Funds</td> <td align="right">-17.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L24</td> <td>MMM Do It Yourself ETFs</td> <td align="right">-18.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L20</td> <td>Ted Aronson’s Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-19.1%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L01</td> <td>IFA Index Portfolio 100 Bright Red</td> <td align="right">-19.4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L23</td> <td>MMM Do It Yourself Funds</td> <td align="right">-19.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L21</td> <td>Merriman Vanguard Equity</td> <td align="right">-20.4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L05</td> <td>Jim Lowell’s Sower’s Growth Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-21.1%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L02</td> <td>WisdomTree</td> <td align="right">-21.5%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Post-crash financial terminology definitions

"Diversified"

Pre-crash
5% cash
2% short term gov't debt
33% investment grade bonds
3% high yield
9% emerging market stocks
32% large cap us stocks
9% mid cap us stocks
7% small cap stocks

Post-crash
20% 13 wk t-bills
60% cash spread around as many banks as needed to stay under the latest FDIC limit
20% gold
<object height="344" width="425">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/grbSQ6O6kbs&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></object>

grapejelly
10-09-08, 01:53 PM
i'm down 50% on equities but up significantly on beans, tuna, peanut butter and corrugated boxes. Anyone seen a shopping cart that was there on the corner a minute ago?

jimmygu3
10-09-08, 02:01 PM
i'm down 50% on equities but up significantly on beans, tuna, peanut butter and corrugated boxes. Anyone seen a shopping cart that was there on the corner a minute ago?

I have just gone long pumpkins, which I plan to hold through early '09.

Seriously, I'm down 7% for the year. Commodities, miners & Alt Energy have taken a beating. Fortunately my inverse funds have hedged a good bit of the losses- otherwise I'd be down much more.

Jimmy

LargoWinch
10-09-08, 02:29 PM
In January of 2008, my portfolio was composed of the following:

5% global equities: sold most of it in Oct. and Nov. of 07 (lucky me)
10% short-term Gov. of Canada Bonds
18% Platinum
31% Gold
36% Cash

I did well in Gold (in my local currency the $CAD), but I got hit hard in my platinum position which is down 35%. I later purchased Natural Gas (7% of my portfolio) with 2x leverage back in the spring and lost 60%+ on that in less than 6 weeks. Not a good feeling.

In the end, despite me saving 50% of my paycheck, my portfolio is only slightly higher than as of Jan. of 08. In other words: I am up but without me saving so much, my portfolio would be down about 10% overall.

Currently, I have the following positions:

50% Cash (@ 3.4% and 4.0% - non-taxed)
37% Gold
6% Platinum
5% Silver
1% Natural Gas (2x leverage - 2% effective)
1% Palladium

Bottom line: Should have sold most of my Platinum position (I was up more than 40% on that investment at some point) and should have stayed away from 2x leveraged Natural Gas... ah those ETFs!

PS: Is it possible to copy and past a MS Excel graph on iTulip?

PPS: I convinced both my parents to reallocate their entire portfolio (retirement funds) 95% in cash in late 2007 and with a 5% gold physical position (I suggested more gold but they refused). Before that their genius investment advisor told them that 70% in equities (Canadian index fund) and 30% gov. bonds should be more like it. Their cash is up 3% and their gold is up in $CAD about 14% for an overall return of about +4%. Better than me! Should I expect a nice Xmas gift?

jpatter666
10-09-08, 02:39 PM
My 401Ks have taken a beating (down about 20%) but they are very long-term to go and I did buy some gold/PM funds.

Personal accounts are down maybe 5% mainly thanks to this site which has kept me paranoid enough not to jump in on some of the falls knowing that it was likely even bigger falls were in the future (and that came about even more than my worst assumptions).

Mainly in cash, a little PMs. I'm still suspicious that the CBs have one last big push in them to force down and wipe out any gold speculators. I'm looking for that.

LargoWinch
10-09-08, 02:49 PM
60% cash spread around as many banks as needed to stay under the latest FDIC limit



hmmm seems that some have more chickens to lose than me.

why not posting your allocation under Jim's investement allocation thread?

btw, very a propos clip.

Basil
10-09-08, 02:49 PM
I am somewhat screwed. As for what I manage myself, I am about even. I interviewed many account managers in March and moved the bulk of my funds to an outfit that spoke as if they understood the Itulip thesis, but then invested as if they were gambling on a single sector, shipping. I asked for active management and aggressive strategies to defend against market downturns. I specifically said I wanted a manager who was willing to go all cash, but when things turned they stood there a a deer in the headlights. I got out and am now all cash after taking a good 35% whack on what I had with them. :(

As always, the biggest mistake was entrusting my affairs to someone else. If anyone has any advice as to how to proceed with arbitration let me know. Considering that they did not manage my accounts in the manner we had agreed, this is a case of fraud.

EJ, do you know any good lawyers for such things? I am in the Boston area.

vinoveri
10-09-08, 03:06 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/stock_market_crash.gifPost-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

The DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53268#post53268) call, our second such call in ten years.

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?


About even, maybe a bit up. The ITulip subscription was surely a good buy.
I left equities a bit early (May 2006) as I thought that was the beginning of the crash; SPX was about 1280. Was kicking myself until last month for having been premature. Have been in cash and ~15% GLD.

Tried to play the trading game a bit with short etf's but was not successful. Worst mistake was buying SRS in early July at $107 only to watch it drop to ~$80 over the next 2 months. Got fed up and sold last week as the bailout package was being passed as I thought we'd get a big rally; SRS now trading at 124. go figure.

skidder
10-09-08, 03:08 PM
I'm down probably 40% overall. My Gold & Silver stocks were devastated.
My physical is up by whatever % those rose over that timeframe.
I have some Numismatics (pre-33 Gaudens) that have started to perk up recently as well.
Overall quite an ass-pounding, financially speaking.

I'm not selling anything though. I don't give a rip either. These fu*kers gaming the system are going to have to come and physically steal my assets. I know what is coming and I'm not trading my way into a scenario that leaves me on the sidelines. I suck as a trader in any event so I'd almost be guaranteed of selling just after a collapse and just prior to a "bank holiday" or some other BS system shut down that leaves me on the outside looking in at the big boys stuffing their portfolios with my recently sold stocks. Sorry, a tint of tinfoil there!

j4f2h0
10-09-08, 03:35 PM
i started buying gold in 2005 so i am up on physical gold and about flat on my physical silver. I got crushed in gdx but limited my loss and sold out in the july rally, and used the money to buy more physical and stay out of the market! I have a small stake in a penny mining company, 5k or so hoping it will go through the roof! I keep all cash in hand only have 1k in a bank! :)
Overall about flat!

metalman
10-09-08, 03:43 PM
My Gold & Silver stocks were devastated.

gold.

and.

silver.

mining.

stocks.

itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.

http://i35.tinypic.com/23vlt3a.gif

the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

Jeff
10-09-08, 03:44 PM
I bought a lot of physical gold in the 90's which has done well, but the managed portion of wealth was up through August, then took a 5.5% hit in one week in September.

Noodling around with excel I realized I'd lost more money that week than I'd made in my first five years out of college. Ouch. Loses hurt worse than gains feel good.

orion
10-09-08, 04:35 PM
Technically the poll and Fred's post speak about how your portfolio has done since the iTulip calls.

Fred/Ed:
As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

Poll:
From the date of our Dec. 27, 2007 Debt Deflation Bear Market call, where is your portfolio to date?

So I think you can vote whether or not you listened to the advise.

Personally I was already out of the market in late 2007 as I thought doom and gloom was in the cards as did several blog sites. What I learned on iTulip is to avoid the dollar and watch for inflation not deflation, and I say Thanks!

sadsack
10-09-08, 04:53 PM
Overall, I'm down around 5%. I took the biggest hit in my employer-sponsored retirement account (-25%), for the money I manage myself, I'm pretty much even (PM up, cash up, energy stocks down).

It could have been much, much worse - Thanks iTulip!

Atlas
10-09-08, 05:59 PM
Up about 12% despite recent losses in my one Gold mining stock (GG). Yes Metalman, I know they said avoid mining stocks but I just can't seem to grasp that if gold goes up that they won't benefit. I also went against the advice a with USB but have done well trading in and out of this. (Note that I sell a lot of puts that expire worthless and when I do actually get exercised I tend to sell calls that I think will get me out quickly. This has been a great strategy for me over the past 3 years averaging around 32% yearly. Just thought I'd share that since the education I get here from many of you is invaluable. I know it's simple but it seems to work well and I love making money without actually owning anything.)

I am up the most with SDS which I only got interested in thanks to reading here. I had never taken any type of short position prior to this and I wish I would have been brave enough to buy some puts on financials but just couldn't pull the trigger.

cschx
10-09-08, 06:35 PM
I had all my savings in a fairly run-of-the-mill NASDAQ fund until I started reading iTulip back in Spring of 2006. I sold everything and bought USPIX on EJ's call (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68), but missed the part about it being a short-term trade. Subsequently watched USPIX fall to less than half what I bought it for, but I'm stubborn and hung in there. Now I'm showing a nice profit after two years of losing money, but I've learned that the only kind of trading I'm suited for is the "buy and hold forever" variety.

I am currently in 60% cash, 20% short NASDAQ via USPIX and 20% physical gold (BullionVault) and am doing pretty well this year. Wish I knew how to trade so I could do even better – I suspect there are fortunes to be made from this kind of volatility. But I know better than to try my unpractised hand.

sabocat
10-09-08, 07:04 PM
Literally taking iTulip's advice has caused me to be in physical gold and SRS. SRS sucked for a long time, but appears to be doing fine now. Gold everyone knows about: wildly going nowhere, which is fine since for me it is a mechanism for preserving capital.

itulip's analysis has prompted other investments which are doing fine. HSGFX has held up nicely, though his calls have been a little worse than usual lately. International bonds are there to hedge dollar deflation and have been holding up OK, though the flight to the dollar has taken them well off of their highs. But I expect they will recover and will be fine barring the introduction of capital controls.

Commodity plays have been massacred (both actual commodities and stocks) and I have been massacred along with them.

The best thing iTulip has done for me is made me absolutely certain about the blow-up of the banking sector and I have had put options on a variety of banks all year until September. These puts have nicely hedged other declines. Of course you can't do that anymore, the volatility premium is too high, one may as well short the underlying stock. This week I opened call options on gold miners, put options on high-end retail, and put options on treasuries, which all seem to me to be derivative of itulip's analysis.

tombat1913
10-09-08, 08:06 PM
I read Americas Bubble Economy and took control of my own retirement accounts in October 2007, I called the market top about two months earlier than iTulip, but based upon the information in the book. Since then my IRA is up 40%, and my 401K is up 20%. The 401K would be much better but I only have control of about half of it, the other half is in company stock which has been hammered down.

Thanks iTulip!

Gnosis
10-09-08, 08:43 PM
I read several books on gold and of course EJ's bubble book. I went 80/20 bullion/cash. Gold remains as stable as Linda Blair's cervical spine, however I believe it will go very positive in the next year.
SO, breakin' even, give or take, is the word from this iTulip devotee.
PS..... LOVED the clip from Metalman!:D

nedtheguy
10-09-08, 08:52 PM
redacted

sishya
10-09-08, 08:59 PM
I have been a bear since Aug 2007.
inverse ETF's : up 30%.(cashed out. could not understand today's crash)
Gold : up 5%

jtabeb
10-09-08, 09:35 PM
I'm up about 5% net post crash. (depends on the reference date, I'm up 12.5% net since Dec 27 '07)

Oops! Just had to do a revision (Damn Volatility!) Since leaving work I'm now up 19.5% since Dec 27 '07.

Brandman
10-10-08, 01:26 AM
Sold my house at the peak in June 2005 because I saw what was coming. Subsequently became an iTulip subscriber because it's central theses lined up with what I thought was happening and kept most of the money out of the market.

Invested a good chunk (15%) of total portfolio in Gold Bullion via Bullion Vault. Went to cash with most of my other money, however left some in gold and PM stocks, which are way down--ignored that iTulip warning-- and still have a small percentage in miscellaneous asset-class-based stock funds invested around the world. All losers at this point.

I also have been buying some Canadian Gas Trust stocks during this crash to pull in something that is now paying 21% and not in danger of going bust. Yes, eventually their hedges will expire and the dividend may be lowered, but I am not so worried about that.

Overall I am net down about 10% from my absolute high in Aug 2007. Will be down more if the pre-IPO company I invested in in 2000 goes bust. So far it's hanging on and just got some funds from Dubai. Maybe it will make it and I'll get my money back...

Definitely feel like I dodged the bullet. I see many of my friends, with whom I have and had spoken at length about the upcoming crash, still in denial and barely holding on. Most still don't see the danger they are in. Sigh.

Best to you all.

EasternBelle
10-10-08, 05:16 AM
Moved to a much more conservative portfolio 2 years ago. Most of my liquid worth is now in cash and Gold. iTulip has been great in helping shape the thesis I was starting to develop two years ago, when the credit madness started to dawn on me. So, yes very happy about my personal portfolio. Waiting for it to happen, while it seems to climb up relentlessly was not easy. Now I wonder when to become contrarian again and what signals to watch out for.
As to the company's pension fund, I don't know, but then its one of those few defined benefit funds in a strong industry and they were overcapitalised at the beginning of the year. I expect they'll increase contributions next year.
Eastern Belle

LabMonkey
10-10-08, 06:56 AM
I'm up a little over 100% but currently have little in the way of precious metals. My first purchase was from apmex after a recommendation from grapejelly - thank you sir, they were in stock and arrived rather quickly. A good portion of my portfolio increase actually occurred in just the past few weeks. I was using a double inverse ETF (SRS) after reading itulip's (and others as well) take on CRE. I had been holding onto OCT call options for a couple months, and held them through all of Paulson's swats and jabs. For a while, I was wondering if I was going to have to go through this whole crisis broke. I also have some lotto SPY put options that are no longer looking so lotto like. I missed the days of $400 gold so I figured I'd have to make a killing in the market to compensate. I'm in my late 20's so I took on a good deal of risk and the timing was just right to pay off. Now I'm just hoping that I'll still be able to wire my profits before the whole thing is stuck in limbo.

Chris Coles
10-10-08, 07:22 AM
gold.

and.

silver.

mining.

stocks.

itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.

http://i35.tinypic.com/23vlt3a.gif

the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

October 9, 2008


Mining stocks fall in a hole as Chinese demand falters

Market report

<!-- END: Module - Main Heading --><!--CMA user Call Diffrenet Variation Of Image --><!-- BEGIN: Module - M24 Article Headline with no image (a) --><!-- getting the section url from article. This has been done so that correct url isgenerated if we are coming from a section or topic --><!-- Print Author name associated with the article --><!-- Print Author name from By Line associated with the article -->Robert Lindsay


<!-- END: Module - M24 Article Headline with no image --><!-- Article Copy module --><!-- BEGIN: Module - Main Article --><!-- Check the Article Type and display accordingly--><!-- Print Author image associated with the Author--><!-- Print the body of the article--><STYLE type=text/css>div#related-article-links p a, div#related-article-links p a:visited {color:#06c;}</STYLE><!-- Pagination -->The ribbon was cut on the FTSE 100 clearance sale yesterday, with mining and oil shares going for a song. The news that four key Chinese steel plants were cutting production this year by up to a fifth triggered a stampede, particularly out of mining stocks.



http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article4909867.ece

jimmygu3
10-10-08, 11:32 AM
itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.

the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

pianodoctor
10-10-08, 11:59 AM
Unfortunately I didn't discover iTulip until AFTER I invested all my money with Euro Pacific Capital in spring 2007. So I am DOWN, DOWN, DOWN like maybe 40%. And for some reason the broker didn't want me to buy into any gold, so I don't even have the benefit of gold's rise.

In 2006, I was just another retail know-nothing who relied totally on a mainstream advisor. In January 2007 I lost the adviser and decided it was time to learn something. Decided to look into the macroeconomy first to see if I could discern future trends. Became convinced of the 'bad news' view of the future, found Mega's pet monkey. Invested there. But continued the quest to learn. Found iTulip. EJ is amazing. If I only knew then what I know now, but what can I do about that?? Just hope that Mega's pet monkey is right about the "end game" after all- as he has been right about so much other stuff. But right now, I've got a 40% wall to climb just to get back to break even. It doesn't feel good, but I'm holding on.

(edit: Ha- I just discovered the automated "Mega's pet monkey" feature....)

metalman
10-10-08, 12:01 PM
metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

jimmy,

first to admit i'm rough around the edges. what can i say?

my 'arrogance' as you call it is frustration. itulip goes to a lot of trouble to explain over and over... such as DON'T BUY MINING STOCKS... yet when readers fail to head the 'opinion' (not 'advice') and then report that they are down because of mining stocks they cannot also say that they have followed itulip opinions. the amount that they are down now is due entirely to itulip opinion that they haven't listened to.

here's the list of 'opinions' or 'calls' from the select thread...


November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/knowyourmania.html)
August 1999: No Y2K Disaster (http://www.itulip.com/y2k.htm)
November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End (http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/investing/19991129f.asp?keyword=)
March 2000: Internet Bubble Top (http://www.itulip.com/GlobeArchiveJanszen.htm)
April 2000: A Bear Market is Born (http://www.itulip.com/urgentmessage.htm#Bear)
January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession (http://www.itulip.com/recession2001.htm)
September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270 (http://www.itulip.com/gold.htm)
August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/index_old.html#Today)
January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End (http://www.itulip.com/housingnotlikeequities.htm)
January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction (http://www.itulip.com/housingbubblecorrection.htm)
June 2005: Housing Bubble Top (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=606)
October 2006: Recession Q4 2007 (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=743)
July 2007: Before the Stroke of Midnight (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=12708#post12708)
December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774)

i'd add...

Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53268#post53268)

there are some folks here who famously said a few months ago that their 'drawdown' was positive for the year but negative for the duration of itulip... they lost big time in 2000. one of them also said he lost big in 1987, too. this same member, who has been mighty quiet lately, has been a vocal doubter if itulip's dec. 2007 call, among others. think he's made the same mistake a 3rd time?

what you are hearing from me is frustration. these losses are all so unnecessary.

the poll is "as a follower of itulip, how is your portfolio doing' not 'if you decided to listen to some of the opinions but not others how is your portfolio doing'. so the poll results are a mix of following, not following and partial following. i'd like to know how just the true followers did. maybe fred can re-do it with... 'take the stuff out of your portfolio that we say suck, like mining stocks, and report how your portfolio is doing...' then maybe the results will be more like mine... up 7% for the year.

at the end of the day, in the beauty contest of financial market and economic opinion and forecasting, it all comes down to this: who's has the best track record and most well researched and expressed opinion?

Chris Coles
10-10-08, 04:59 PM
metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

Jimmy,

If my last post has caused offence, please accept my apologies. I did not make it as though to reinforce Metalman, but simply to show the reality of the day.

There is a lot of stress about and that is hardly surprising considering what is unfolding in front of our eyes, day by day.

Each one of us has a different situation and strategy. You are correct to point out that everyone has a different position. In my case, I am sitting on IP assets that might be worth hanging onto, or then again, might not. My strategy is to wait for things to settle, which might now be for at least another year and then make some decisions. So in one way, I am in a much better position than most, with little real money to lose, but in another way, I have to live with my decision to sit. It might be an expensive decision and as with everyone else, I will not know until the fat lady sings.

Chris.

jimmygu3
10-10-08, 05:31 PM
Jimmy,

If my last post has caused offence, please accept my apologies. I did not make it as though to reinforce Metalman, but simply to show the reality of the day.

There is a lot of stress about and that is hardly surprising considering what is unfolding in front of our eyes, day by day.

Each one of us has a different situation and strategy. You are correct to point out that everyone has a different position. In my case, I am sitting on IP assets that might be worth hanging onto, or then again, might not. My strategy is to wait for things to settle, which might now be for at least another year and then make some decisions. So in one way, I am in a much better position than most, with little real money to lose, but in another way, I have to live with my decision to sit. It might be an expensive decision and as with everyone else, I will not know until the fat lady sings.

Chris.

No offence taken, Chris. Your description of your situation illustrates how we cannot paint with too broad a brush when determining absolutes about investing. Or anything, for that matter. :)

Jimmy

P.S. Still hope to hear more about your gravity theories!

quigleydoor
10-10-08, 06:03 PM
meanwhile, over at paul douglas boyer's http://madmoneymachine.com/portfolios...
Professional Lazy Portfolios

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td width="64">ID</td> <td width="251">Professional Lazy Portfolio (http://madmoneymachine.com/professional-lazy-portfolios/)</td> <td width="60">Thru 30 Sep</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="64">L29</td> <td width="251">Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio</td> <td align="right" width="60">-2.2%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L04</td> <td>Ben Stein Retirement</td> <td align="right">-7.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L13</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Vanguard</td> <td align="right">-8.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L12</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio ETFs</td> <td align="right">-9.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L07</td> <td>John Wasnik’s Nano Investment Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-9.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L15</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Couch Potato Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-9.7%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L18</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Five Fold Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-10.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L22</td> <td>FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold</td> <td align="right">-10.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L14</td> <td>David Swensen’s Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-11.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L10</td> <td>William Bernstein’s No Brainer Cowards Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-11.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L17</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Four Square Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-12.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L19</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Six Ways from Sunday Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-12.2%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L09</td> <td>William Bernstein’s Basic No-Brainer Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-13.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L06</td> <td>Frank Armstrong’s Ideal Index Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-13.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L03</td> <td>Ben Stein 2007</td> <td align="right">-15.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L08</td> <td>Andrew Tobias’ Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-16.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L16</td> <td>Scott Burns’ Margarita (also Andrew Tobias) Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-16.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L11</td> <td>Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Three ETF</td> <td align="right">-16.7%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L27</td> <td>Bogle Tax-Sheltered</td> <td align="right">-17.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L28</td> <td>MMM SMILER Funds</td> <td align="right">-17.6%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L24</td> <td>MMM Do It Yourself ETFs</td> <td align="right">-18.9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L20</td> <td>Ted Aronson’s Lazy Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-19.1%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L01</td> <td>IFA Index Portfolio 100 Bright Red</td> <td align="right">-19.4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L23</td> <td>MMM Do It Yourself Funds</td> <td align="right">-19.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L21</td> <td>Merriman Vanguard Equity</td> <td align="right">-20.4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L05</td> <td>Jim Lowell’s Sower’s Growth Portfolio</td> <td align="right">-21.1%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L02</td> <td>WisdomTree</td> <td align="right">-21.5%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>


Thanks for posting this summary. I'm down about 18% since 12/27/2007 and I'm interested to see how I stand in comparison.

My own portfolio is an average of David Swenson's Lazy Portfolio, <a href="http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1653">Christopher Moth</a>, <a href="http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1701">Ibbotson Associates Moderate Allocation</a>, and a traditional "diversified" plan like your pre-crash example below. On top of this average, I applied a wussy bear market strategy of -10% reduced equity exposure and +10% cash, and pulled out of financials completely.


Post-crash financial terminology definitions

"Diversified"

Pre-crash
5% cash
2% short term gov't debt
33% investment grade bonds
3% high yield
9% emerging market stocks
32% large cap us stocks
9% mid cap us stocks
7% small cap stocks

Post-crash
20% 13 wk t-bills
60% cash spread around as many banks as needed to stay under the latest FDIC limit
20% gold

zenith191
10-10-08, 06:22 PM
I am up 126% this year. :D

Mostly from double inverse ETFs, put options, paper gold and Forex.

I did not buy or sell a single gold mining stock.

Chris Coles
10-10-08, 06:30 PM
No offence taken, Chris. Your description of your situation illustrates how we cannot paint with too broad a brush when determining absolutes about investing. Or anything, for that matter. :)

Jimmy

P.S. Still hope to hear more about your gravity theories!

It is very simple, While attending a wireless conference in San Francisco 2002 I was challenged by another delegate, over a beer one evening, to publish some ideas I had had in mind about gravity. To cut a very long story short, I set up my own publishing co, proudly using the name of my greatest mentor, sadly the now late Len Sugerman and published a short missive. It did not get so much as a second glance and bombed. Still have half the first edition under the bed. Forced by reduced economic circumstances to put my wireless proposals on hold, I sat down and continued to write. By November 2005 I had produced a second edition e-book, but by then Len's boss, Prof. Don Birx had agreed to become my Principal Investigator and in turn he challenged me to write up some experiments to prove my thinking. So over the last three years I did just that and as of this month, I have a new, retitled edition, (480 pages, 57 chapters and 168 illustrations), completely finished, ready to publish when funding can be found. Don has been kind enough to both write a Foreword and also now state this last week that the final draft "is quite a masterpiece now", though I must immediately point out that he does not agree with my theories. He does explain why in the Foreword.

In essence, I believe that instead of being attracted to the planet by a force we call gravity, we are attached to the mass of the planet by the atmosphere that surrounds us. If I am correct, I have pretty well re-written both the physics and cosmology text books. I hardly need to tell you that no scientist would publicly support such a theory, as that would mean every text book has to be replaced with mine. However, quite a few scientists have seen earlier drafts and I do believe that it is fair to say that at least one scientist has followed what I theorise and has intimated, in writing in Scientific American, without referring to me, the possibility of a new disruptive theory on the horizon.

It would be quite improper of me to try and sell the book here and I am not going to sully the professionalism of iTulip by saying any more than that. When we have a book in hand, you will all hear about it in iTulip.

pinhead
10-10-08, 07:55 PM
One huge recent success on cash/stock investment portfolio. Made the year, for sure! SPY december 84 puts, bought for $0.50 a few weeks ago, and sold Thursday at the close.
Physical gold, and bullionvault up a little over all, over a year of buying physical. Premiums for $20 libs have been extremely high recently, but still adding.
IRA turned to cash/money market at the beginning of September.
I owe a fair amount to Minyanville, FM and itulip, and a number of other sources.
Other puts on financials are still in place and in the green!
Who can tell what happens Monday morning......If they don't close down the world exchanges, I figure more premium growth on the financials puts next week (expire December 2008 out of the money puts - now near the money!).
Options were the second best thing I learned about over the last year, but I am still getting the hang of timing (in and out).
Had Lehman puts in early September (or was it August?) but set a sell price way short of the mark. Out on a positive note, but not what it could have been.
Live and learn.

chrsub8rt
10-10-08, 09:06 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/stock_market_crash.gifPost-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

The DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53268#post53268) call, our second such call in ten years.

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

It's to be seen. Up until 2 weeks ago, I was up 15%, but a chunk of cash caught in a sweep fund (Reserve Primary) is now in the hands of the SEC awaiting liquidation and distribution. Thought I had my bases covered. Thanks for all the good advice. chrsub8rt

ed_oshea
10-11-08, 01:48 AM
I would be up quit a bit more if I had not sold my SDS early in this (for me rally). That is the problem being better informed than the sheeple, I sell early thinking every dolt must know by now, and it still is a week before the herd changes course.

Ed OShea

hellstan
10-12-08, 06:20 AM
i'm down 50% on equities but up significantly on beans, tuna, peanut butter and corrugated boxes. Anyone seen a shopping cart that was there on the corner a minute ago?

:D:D:D Oh, it was yours. I'm so sorry.

PS : I dodged the two previous downfalls (2007/2008), but not this one. All in all, I'm about minus 7 or 8 %
on all the family portfolios I manage.
Now I'm only on cash, gold and a small energy line.
Now I'm a fresh iTuliper I might try to follow your advice from this side of the pond…

ocelotl
10-13-08, 02:34 PM
Hadn't checked around the site until today. Was away giving support with limited web access. If measured in MXN (pesos), as it is all valued, I dodged the euro downturn, but didn't get on boat in the last week rise. I'm still up for the year (need to check numbers) by 4-5%

Measured in USD, in the last two months I lost 36% at the worst (oct 9th, USD at 13.38 MXN spot) and so far since I've recovered 8% (oct 13th, 17:30 GMT, USD at 12.40 MXN spot)

* Edit *

12.15 MXN per USD at 22:25 GMT... It means almost another 2 % recovered...

doom&gloom
10-14-08, 04:38 PM
was down a bit over 20%, now back up a bit after buying near the bottom and selling a lot today. Never been TOO concerned as most of what i have is dividend paying energy related stox like TOT etc. So down or not
I get paid to wait it out.

raja
10-15-08, 01:01 AM
With realized positions, I'm up 14.3%.

Unrealized is down 3.7% . . . and that's all paper gold -- CEF, GTU, GLD.

I made most of my income from jumping in and out of paper gold (Since it was held less than a year, I'm hoping I can claim at the normal tax rate, although I realize some believe it will be taxed as a "collectible.)

I know EJ recommends holding, but I haven't calculated whether I would have been better off doing that, or not. metalman, what % has your gold gone up or down so far this year?

I also dabbled in Jack Crooks options program. I made some money there, but bailed out when he made 11 bad (or what looked like would turn bad) calls in a row IIRC. This is not a criticism of him, since what counts is the ultimate ratio of winners to losers, and for all I know his subscribers are making tons of money now.

I stuck my toe in the commodity waters, and made a little profit. But I fortunately realized that demand destruction in the current recession/depression bode ill for commodities . . . and I was also fearing a market crash . . . so I bailed out before things went down.

Also made a bit of money following EJs "Short the Market" tips.

One thing that's not included in the 14.3% profit for this year are my TIPS. About 45% of my portfolio is in TIPS, and they are bringing in over 7% now (so after tax, I'm probably just keeping up with CPI inflation). In the past, I got some criticism of my TIPS holdings on this site, but if EJ's inflation call is correct, they are going to be a desirable investment in a world where just preserving what one already has is a laudable achievement. (I'm hoping profits in gold will compensate for the TIPS shortcomings.)

About 95% of my self-education in economics has come through iTulip. By listening to EJ and the wise folks here at iTulip, I have learned a lot. But I also profited from following my own judgment . . . with the TIPS and going in and out of gold. I imagine there are people here who made a lot more . . . but as a total novice as of two years ago, I'm happy with how things have turned out so far . . . .