Decoupling gone haywire

[The Outback Oracle]

I have just been talking to an analyst in Hong Kong on the phone. A few comments from the conversation include

Building approavals in China have dropped from 26% up yoy to 5% growth yoy
Exports from Asia still OK. Exports to US down but exports to Europe, Middle East and Latin America still strong
Domestic consumption has fallen sharply. So, in fact, what has happened is exactly the opposite to what many were predicting in the decoupling theory, which was predicting domestic consumption to be strong against falling exports
An example of this...car sales in Taiwan down 60% yoy
For 20 years OECD leading indicators and Asian exports have tracked very closely. Suddenly this year in the last 6 months, OECD leading indicator dropping and Asian exports increasing. Probably some big lag come into the equation.


Just a few casual observations...not a definitive list about anything

[marvenger]

new 10 yr plan, every chinese person must own:

5 pairs of shoes: black, brown, light beige, dark beige and red

a whole lot of other now essential gear that I don't have the imagination and time to write out.

Regular audits done on personal inventory with a three strikes and you can't go above assistant manager at chopsticks r us fine dining policy

[phirang]

I have just been talking to an analyst in Hong Kong on the phone. A few comments from the conversation include

Building approavals in China have dropped from 26% up yoy to 5% growth yoy
Exports from Asia still OK. Exports to US down but exports to Europe, Middle East and Latin America still strong
Domestic consumption has fallen sharply. So, in fact, what has happened is exactly the opposite to what many were predicting in the decoupling theory, which was predicting domestic consumption to be strong against falling exports
An example of this...car sales in Taiwan down 60% yoy
For 20 years OECD leading indicators and Asian exports have tracked very closely. Suddenly this year in the last 6 months, OECD leading indicator dropping and Asian exports increasing. Probably some big lag come into the equation.

Just a few casual observations...not a definitive list about anything

Lots of chinese products going to africa, south/central america, and middle east... seen them there myself!

[$#*]

Lots of chinese products going to africa, south/central america, and middle east... seen them there myself!

And those markets will be quickly saturated, without providing any recyclable return of high quality fiat dollars (treasuries or equivalents). The Chinese Titanic will accelerate with cheap barter fuel going full speed ahead in order to win the transatlantic ( well .. transpacific) race (it's a matter of prestige also :D)

Out there, in the thick fog and cold hollow darkness, floats in silence an almost completely submerged mountain of deep frozen derivatives. Oh,... and there are lifeboats for not more than 10 million passengers... those in the First Class upper decks.

I think that this is how Rose the American (Credit Card) Soccer-mom will remember her wonderful, torrid, but ephemeral love story with the young, vigorous and handsome Mr Jack DengXiao-Cheapcrap (aka Leonardo DiCaprio-Wallmart ):



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw0t68maGS4

[a warren]

new 10 yr plan, every chinese person must own:

5 pairs of shoes: black, brown, light beige, dark beige and red

a whole lot of other now essential gear that I don't have the imagination and time to write out.

Regular audits done on personal inventory with a three strikes and you can't go above assistant manager at chopsticks r us fine dining policy

Rather that than dictator McCain and all those moron US troops backing him up.

[marvenger]

it seems to be fast heading to be a better option. oh my!