David Bensimon - big market correction comments, and forecast [Archive]

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Lukester

09-21-08, 04:06 AM

09-21-08, 04:26 AM

This guy is good. Good guidance here on what's upcoming for the commodities, oil and gold.

David Bensimon on Technical Analysis of Equities and Commodities Markets and Buying Opportunities - Sep 17, 2008 (mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/david_bensimon20080917.wma)
thanks, lukester. it's interesting to me to try to reconcile this guy's optimism about the markets in '09 with the recent events in the markets. the implication would be that the rescues "work," at least for a few years.

Chris

09-21-08, 04:40 AM

I wish these technical guys would explain these predictions more fully. It sounds like voodoo when they just declare the market should be X then should be Y.

Lukester

09-21-08, 03:09 PM

Chris - He is indeed a bit of a wonk and as wonks go he rattles through his descriptions in a slightly dull and impenetrable way. But research a bit of this guy's track record. He is considered *the* wunderkind of technical analysis and the proof is in an incredible trail of dead-accurate calls. I mean he has left a record of a whole slew of calls that were accurate almost to the day, and within one dollar of price points, and made those predictions sometimes six months ahead of time. There are some real mysteries in the art of *real* TA which one would do very well not to underestimate. Research this guy's record. Seeing is believing.

He specialises in the "ultra-long" wave analysis and although I 'm as much a predisposed skeptic as you towards the "wavers" after getting acquainted with this guy's calibre I consider him one to watch very closely. I will put more belief in David Bensimon's market calls than I would in Jim Rogers, Marc Faber or George Soros, for exampe. He employs long wave theory, Fibonacci retracements, a lot of historic research, and I think also Gann price/time theory, plus some other stuff I haven't got a clue about. Whatever. This guy has a jaw dropping track record.

I have posted a synopsis of the long waves he has studied over on one of Bart's threads - I'll retrieve the links and post them here.

Bottom line (in my book anyway) this guy is the real deal. If he makes a high assurance call on the larger trend changes (he's no slouch on the short term trends either) be on the careful lookout for it, because based on past performance, you will likely see it come about. He is one of the very few people out there who based on past performance can give us a genuine glimpse of what's ahead, and at an extremely dangerous time like this one should leave no stone unturned to get a sliver of forward looking intelligence.

A (not exactly brief!) synopsis of Bensimon's work - Bart's thread: "That 70's Connection" (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4399)

Verrocchio

09-21-08, 04:06 PM

Thanks, Luker, for starting this thread and sharing Bensimon's analysis. My crystal ball is exceptionally cloudy today and has maybe become a little cracked after last week's interventions, so welcome other prognostications. One of the problems that is contributing to the cloudiness concerns the Treasury's willingness to support money market funds. I cannot understand why investors would buy T-bills when they can invest in money market funds that pay higher interest rates. What could they be thinking?

Lukester

09-21-08, 04:32 PM

Verrocchio -

You's read about those "picador" spears which the Spanish "Torreadores" use in the bullfights? I must look like a porcupine because I've got about fifty of them dangling off my back. PM bulls took a normal drubbing. But silver bulls took a "nice little siesta" on the guillotine, with their necks on the block, staring philosophically into the basket where Marie Antoinette's head just landed. Time to give the world a big grin and crack some stale last minute jokes. :D

Verrocchio

09-21-08, 09:15 PM

I also feel the sting of the picadors in my own back, some due to silver exposure (much less than yours, I'm sure) and to other PMs and commodities. For sure, you'll want to stick with your story (thesis) unless the fundamentals have changed. Therein lies the complication of the Fed/SEC/Treasury's latest attempt to "rescue" the world from the previous mistakes these buffoons have made. Is the thesis still valid? It'll take me a bit to work out whether the latest restructuring of the game board and the rules will cause me to deviate from my previous course.

Chris

09-22-08, 12:55 AM

Shakespear

09-22-08, 05:04 AM

And that advance will not be just for the SP500, although the SP500 will essentially triple in value from 1200 to 3500 over the next five years. The DOW JONES will similarly rise from it's area around 11,000 up to 40,000 (implies over the next five years).

I pulled the above quote from the link to Bart's thread mentioned above. Granted, five years is far off and perhaps the markets will swallow this pill, but in 5 years I see more flak from PO and weather related issues not to mention what may happen on the geopolitical stage.

Gosh, tough to be this optimistic with those issues on the table.

Lukester

09-22-08, 01:33 PM

I grant that Bensimon's call on the S&P and the Dow seems incredible in today's disinflationary interlude. I think implicit in his argument for a surging US stock market, whether he's acknowledging it or not, is a ramping up in theUSD inflation. Most of the very high inflations in history have caused soaring stock markets within that currency's zone as the equities are a primary outlet for inflation pressures. It is in fact to my mind illogical to expect any hyperinflation or even merely very high inflation, without the stock markets "pressure valve" responding. At some point then this would be more likely than not, in America's future.

Grapejelly in this community has been insisting for a long time that this should be very likely to emerge at some point for the US markets.

One peculiarity of Bensimon's is that he apparently pretty much bypasses the topic of currency devaluation. Not a small point! I have not read explicit references of his to that which is a very notable gap in his representations. He is an extremely bright man, so I would be very doubtful the notion escapes him at all. I have only accessed some small interviews of his, not any of his subscriber writing, so there is no clear indication he does not cover this, and indeed among his very large body of work I note he has 200 year secular charting of the currencies, so this must be squarely in his sights as well.

I think he's really just much more interested in the buildout of Asia, which will have very solid and real monetary underpinnings in terms of incremental wealth effects. The diametric opposite of the US. So in the context of all that, he may have factored in hyperinflating US stock markets but simply not mentioned in the few interviews available that the USD would be inflating very hard as well in that process. Regardless, if he makes these projections for the DOW and the S&P, anyone entering into speculative (i.e. not hedging) shorting strategies of any duration in the US markets needs to gauge their risk quite carefully.

c1ue

09-22-08, 04:56 PM

thanks, lukester. it's interesting to me to try to reconcile this guy's optimism about the markets in '09 with the recent events in the markets. the implication would be that the rescues "work," at least for a few years.

The benefit of calling for higher prices: eventually you are (almost) always right.

Unless said product/commodity disappears.

There is something to be said for being right, there is equally something to be said to be lucky.

For Bensimon to say: Dow 40K and not explicitly talk about inflation and/or dollar depreciation - classic astrologer...I mean technical analyst/WAVE-er.

Lukester

09-22-08, 06:02 PM

C1ue - I'm not interested in batting it back and forth with you about David Bensimon, but with all respect, you know nothing about this guy's calibre. He has nothing whatsoever to do with the Elliott Wave dustbin. Bart has looked over his track record and suggested he is on the "short short list" of people to watch, right up there with EJ. Sometimes you do that forum pigeon thing, flying in, dropping "opinions" which you pulled straight out of your ##%$#, and then flying off.

I say, in this market any and all even half way astute information is excellent information to be able to gather, and to call this particular analyst's calls astute would be elegant understatement. I am completely agnostic - any decent analyst I'm looking at with seriousness - could be some variant of 'waver (in this case Gann), or could be a straightlaced economist deriving market calls exclusively from macro examination. Look at their documented track record, and if it's superb, and yet you consider their method flim-flam, take a good hard look at your own proclivity for preconceptions. This is the definition of an agnostic. And if anyone were to ask me whether your particular views were a little hidebound, I'd have to suggest there might be a grain of truth in that. Intellectual curiosity first and foremost frees itself from any dogmatism. That is job number one.

As for the Dow 40K, that is the least of his business. Take a look at his past track record - or if you are lazy, just ask Bart whether this is a scam artist, broken clock, or whatever, and let Bart's diligence do the work for you. What am I talking about here? You never bothered to research this particular analyst, before depositing your "droppings" on this thread. Anyone who has a scrap of knowledge as to who this guy is can tell in an instant from the flippancy of your comment you did not bother to research him before commenting. You are a smart guy C1ue, but occasionally your proclivity for baldly opinionated comments merely trips you up.

The benefit of calling for higher prices: eventually you are (almost) always right. Unless said product/commodity disappears. There is something to be said for being right, there is equally something to be said to be lucky. For Bensimon to say: Dow 40K and not explicitly talk about inflation and/or dollar depreciation - classic astrologer...I mean technical analyst/WAVE-er.

EXTRACTS:

<TABLE borderColor=#ccccff width=720 border=3><TBODY><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2007</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>SPX</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In OCT forecast 3-month decline from 1578 to 1268. -20% in exactly this move !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2006</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>GOLD</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In MAY forecast collapse from 732 to 546. -25% in precisely this move !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2005</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>NDX</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40><CENTER></CENTER>In APR forecast surge from 1395 to 1775 (futures). +27% in precisely this move !</TD></TR><CENTER><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2004</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>SPX</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40><CENTER></CENTER>In JUL forecast low for 13AUG at 1061. +25% from precisely this juncture !</TD></TR><CENTER><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2003</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>OIL</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In MAR projected price to double in 18 months. +120% in exactly this timeframe !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2002</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>SPX</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In AUG projected major low for 08OCT at 776. Closing low at precisely this juncture !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2001</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>GOLD</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In APR called major low at 255. Stayed bullish for 4 years during +90% rally !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>2000</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>EUR</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In OCT called major low at .8200. Stayed bullish for 3 years during +60% rally !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>1999</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>GOLD</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In AUG forecast low and sharp rally from 253. +33% surge in just 11 sessions !</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 bgColor=#f4f4f4 height=40>1998</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff align=middle width=60 height=40>JPY</TD><TD borderColor=#ffffff width=600 bgColor=#fffff4 height=40>In AUG forecast reversal from 147 to 108. +36% for JPY in precisely this move !</TD></TR></CENTER></CENTER></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=MsoTableGrid style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .75pt solid #CCCCFF; mso-border-insidev: .75pt solid #CCCCFF" borderColor=#cacaff cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-yfti-irow: 0"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #ccffff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 531.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" width=720 colSpan=4>EQUITIES<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>1998

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=100>Fax

04APR<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60><O:P>SPX</O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Current 5th wave will only reach 1180. At that point we will see the sharp downmove back to at most 913.”

Market peaked at 1190 in JUL and fell 22% to 923 in OCT -- precisely the 267-point magnitude projected.<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2000<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=100>Internet

21MAR<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>NDX<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“ATH top in NDX” … “Imminent correction must be very sharp … downside target is 2800.”

Market peaked just 3 days later at record 4816 and fell 40% to a low on 24MAY at 2897 -- just above the cited target.<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2002<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=100>Weekly #78

16SEP<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>SPX<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Expect final descent to 776 on 08OCT.”

Major Closing Low at precisely 776 on 09OCT, followed by 60% gain.<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2004<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=100>Website

31JUL<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>SPX<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Remarkable Price-Time symmetry for 1061 on 13AUG to finish Wave 4. … +200 points to complete Wave 5.”

Market delivered key trough absolutely perfectly at the cited juncture, then over the next 6 months rose +170 points of the +200 projected (eventually reaching +215 later in 2005). <O:P></O:P>

</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2006

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=100>PolarView#17

01MAY

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>SPX<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Rally to high at 1326 on 22MAY"

Market peaked precisely at level expected with high at 1327 on 05MAY, and then dropped sharply by 8% to 1219. <O:P></O:P>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=MsoTableGrid style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .75pt solid #CCCCFF; mso-border-insidev: .75pt solid #CCCCFF" borderColor=#cacaff cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-yfti-irow: 0"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #ccffff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 531.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" width=720 colSpan=4>CURRENCIES<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>1998<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Fax

02AUG
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>JPY</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Very ominous triple bearish divergence …. Expect big move back to 108.00 over next few months.”

Market peaked on 11AUG at 147.50 and Dollar melted down 26% (equal to 36% gain for Yen) to a low on 08JAN at 108.25--precisely the cited target.
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2000<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Monthly #2

31OCT
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>EUR</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Intersection of these elements at the .8200 low last week provides solid support … an enduring reversal … significant upside potential.”

<O:P></O:P>Stayed bullish for three years as market climbed 60%.

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2002<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Weekly #47

11FEB
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>EUR</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Outlook for the rest of the year remains bullish in favour of reaching 1.0000.”

<O:P></O:P>
Market rose 16% to achieve target in JUL and finished the year at 1.0400.

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2004<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Presentation

15MAR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>AUD</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Expect immediate +500 points from .7300 to .7800 followed by -800 points to .7000.”

Market delivered the pattern over next two months with +400 points to .7700 and -900 points to .6800.
</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2006

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>PolarView#14

01FEB
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>EUR</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Sharp 10% drop to 109 in June.”

Market delivered -8.5% to low in May at exactly 109.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=MsoTableGrid style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .75pt solid #CCCCFF; mso-border-insidev: .75pt solid #CCCCFF" borderColor=#cacaff cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-yfti-irow: 0"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #ccffff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 531.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" width=720 colSpan=4>COMMODITIES<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>1999<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Internet

24AUG
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>GOLD</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Clear bullish divergence … strong likelihood of a sizable bounce … outcome will be a panic rally … taking us up to 300-350.”
<O:P></O:P>
23-year Low on 26AUG at 252.Gold then exploded, rising 33% in 11 sessions to a High on 05OCT at 338--right in the cited target zone.
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2001<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Weekly #3

07APR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>GOLD</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“07APR--now--is the precise date providing symmetry to conclude the right side of a large inverted H&S since 1998.”
<O:P></O:P>
Market troughed that very week in a powerful double bottom with AUG99 and over the next four years rose +90% (+220 points)
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2003<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Weekly #102

03MAR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>OIL</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Fundamental backdrop for oil is very bullish … Technical situation is also very bullish. … Price level expected to double over next 18 months.”
<O:P></O:P>
Market rose +120% from 25 in APR03 to 55 in OCT04--fulfilling the cited doubling in value over exactly the specified time frame.
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2005<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>PolarView #3

01MAR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>OIL</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“15% pullback from 54 to 45 … then resumption of secular uptrend targeting 85.00 … enroute to a significant peak at 102 in 2007.”

Market delivered the projected pattern with a 20% slide from 58 to 47 in MAY and then 50% surge to 70 in AUG.
</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2007

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>PolarView #27

01MAR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>GOLD</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Support at 637 to power 15% climb over six months to peak ... on 14APR.”

Market delivered with bottom at 635 and then 10% rally to high on 22APR.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=MsoTableGrid style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #cacaff 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .75pt solid #CCCCFF; mso-border-insidev: .75pt solid #CCCCFF" borderColor=#cacaff cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-yfti-irow: 0"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #ccffff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 531.3pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 2cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" width=720 colSpan=4>INTEREST RATES<O:P> </O:P>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>1999<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Fax

10AUG
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>BOND</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Interest rates in US will go up for next 6 months.”

The 30-year yield rose 90 bp over exactly the cited period to a peak on <ST1:DATE Year="2000" Day="20" Month="1">20JAN00</ST1:DATE> .
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2001<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Weekly #28

01OCT
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>BOND</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“DEC Futures nearing endgame of rally since JAN00, with intraday volatility likely to rise.”

Market moved 75 bp out of total 200 since JAN00, with an upward price spike peaking on 01NOV after Treasury terminated the 30-year Bond.
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2003<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>Weekly #112

12MAY
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>BOND</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Top at 125 in early JUL.”

Market rallied to a peak at 124 (basis USM3) on 16JUN --just ahead of the cited price/time juncture--then fell sharply by 20 figures (135 bp).
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2005<O:P> </O:P>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>PolarView #4

01APR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>DEPOSIT</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Resistance at 96.75 before falling to 95.50 by the end of the year."
Market delivered both ends of the 125 bp drop perfectly, with the high for EDM5 at 96.68 on 18APR95.48 on 15DEC.
</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BACKGROUND: #f3f3f3; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ccccff 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.35pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: 1.0pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-color-alt: #CCCCFF; mso-border-style-alt: solid" borderColor=#cacaff width=60>2007

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 3cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=100>PolarView #28

01APR
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 2cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #CCCCFF 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff align=middle width=60>DEPOSIT</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccccff 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 12cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccccff 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 4cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #CCCCFF .75pt" borderColor=#cacaff width=500>“Immediate slide to 110, bounce to 112, and then collapse to 101"
Market followed the script perfectly, with drop to low on 13APR at 110-00 and rally to high at 112-08 on 08MAY, followed by sharp collapse to a low at 104-25 on 13JUN."
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

c1ue

09-22-08, 11:59 PM

In the old days: A million monkeys at typewriters would manage to randomly punch out a Shakespearean play.

Today: Nassim Taleb - enough people making enough predictions, someone will read the airwaves correctly and be right for some length of time.

Sure, he might have been right in the past. And he might be right in the future.

But we've had this discussion before: right for the correct reasons or just the chicken pecking the newspaper?

Your posting of his reasons : 5th wave, wave 4, ATH top

I hear "Mercury in Sagitarius, Saturn fading"

"Sun, Sagittarius and Capricorn all will be reduced"

"Saturn and Mars in Leo, Spain captive"

Recognize these?

Chris

09-23-08, 04:32 AM

What i'd really like to see are also the predictions he made that were wrong. Same goes for all the other forecasters out there. Is that information available as well Lukester?

ddn3f

09-23-08, 05:54 AM

This was a posting from David Bensimon on another site. David Bensimon talks about his forecasts, as well as the predictions he made wrong.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t83330.html

polarpacific
Feb 18 2008, 06:58 AM
Greetings

This is David Bensimon.

My thanks to the posters in this thread, especially Russ and Bulworth, for their kind comments on my work.

If I may address the concerns expressed by several others:

First, I do indeed trade/invest as well as analyse/forecast. Here is a brief summary of my background:

David Bensimon graduated with multiple awards and top of his class in a five-year business program in Canada, specialising in finance. He has 20 years of experience with interbank, exchange-floor, and proprietary trading across foreign exchange, interest rate, equity index, and commodity markets. His institutional career at top-tier global investment banks in Europe over the course of a decade included positions as chief dealer, head of trading, and chief of staff, and he also spent a year as a local on the floor of the Singapore futures exchange. For the past decade Mr. Bensimon has been publishing forecasts of global markets, and in 2007 the Special Edition of his book, Polar Perspectives, won the Gold Medal in finance/investment/economics at an international competition in New York. A sought-after speaker at conferences around the world, Mr. Bensimon has also been invited to share his views in the financial media -- including radio and television programs as well as business magazines and newspapers.

Polar Pacific Pty Ltd is a derivatives advisor licensed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, and was a finalist in the 2007 Premier's NSW Export Awards. Polar Pacific Ltd. is an asset manager regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and recently launched its flagship investment fund, Polarcap Prosperity.

Professional Summary http://www.polarpacific.com/Profile.pdf

Award-winning Book http://www.polarpacific.com/PolarPerspectives.pdf

Media Interviews http://www.polarpacific.com/Performance/Media.htm

Here is the link to a recent 10-min segment on CNBC Asia from 12FEB: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=648408040

Although I have not posted in public online forums for some time, participants from the early days of Beta, Longwaves, and Crystal Ball will recall my real-time forecasts -- including the important turns for SPX at the high in MAR00 and the low in OCT02.

The following list of just one annual highlight from published forecasts doesn't even include that particular publicly-documented call for SPX in MAR00 (which took place prior to starting my own newsletters in SEP00), as catching the EUR trough that year was more significant.

Some other independently documented forecasts include the precise real-time Gold call in MAY06 in an interview for an Australian magazine; and a Singapore newspaper interview in MAR07 which included the successful affirmation of my MAR05 published forecast for Oil to reach 100 in 2007.

2007 SPX In OCT forecast 3-month decline from 1578 to 1268. -20% in exactly this move !

2006 GOLD In MAY forecast collapse from 732 to 550 (futures). -25% in precisely this move !

2005 NDX In APR forecast surge from 1395 to 1775 (futures). +27% in precisely this move !

2004 SPX In JUL forecast low for 13AUG at 1061. +25% from precisely this juncture !

2003 OIL In MAR projected price to double in 18 months. +120% in exactly this timeframe !

2002 SPX In AUG projected major low for 08OCT at 776. Closing low at precisely this juncture !

2001 GOLD In APR called major low at 255. Stayed bullish for 4 years during +90% rally !

2000 EUR In OCT called major low at .8200. Stayed bullish for 3 years during +60% rally !

1999 GOLD In AUG forecast low and sharp rally from 253. +33% surge in just 11 sessions !

1998 JPY In AUG forecast reversal from 147 to 108. +36% for JPY in precisely this move !

Second, the 2007 forecasts which sparked the current discussion were both real and accurate, and in the case of SPX caught all three of the big declines with forecasts of -100, -200 and -300 points.

FEB-MAR: called for decline from a futures high at 1464.00 -- top came in at 1464.50
JUL-AUG: called for decline to a low at 1374 -- bottom came in at 1375
OCT-JAN: called for a peak at 1578 and 20% slide to 1268 -- top printed at 1576 and bottom at 1270

Not only was the remarkably precise recent forecast in print in my published PolarView report of OCT and each month thereafter, but I also delivered that call in several public presentations throughout SEP-NOV:

specialist speaker at a major annual institutional investor forum with 2600 delegates in Hong Kong on 18SEP
guest of honour at a luncheon seminar to 120 high-net-worth clients in Singapore on 15OCT
keynote speaker at a set of three annual commodities conferences in Munich/London/Paris on 01-06NOV
panelist speaker at a professional interbank currency conference in Shanghai on 13NOV

The JAN08 PolarView also highlighted steep slides for other indices, including a 12% slide for COMPX to 2200 (the low printed at 2202) and 14% for FTSE to 5400 (low at 5338).

In fact, when the market achieved the specified price objectives on 23JAN, I received a number of calls and emails, including one from a long-time client at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund in London who wrote "All equity downside targets met the same day ! Congrats !!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

Third, of course not every single anticipated twist and turn is 100% right simultaneously in every dimension -- price levels, price magnitudes, dates, durations, direction, etc. It is rare, actually, where a multi-dimensional forecast is provided, to get every single price and time element achieved together precisely. For example, the magnitude of a projected decline may turn out to be correct, but it starts and finishes with an upshift. This was actually the case with my first published forecast in 1998 when I expected SPX to fall from 1180 to 913 and it fell by precisely the correct large number of points but upshifted 10 points both sides from 1190 to 923.

It is no doubt easier to limit a forecast to simply a direction without price or time objectives, but my specialty is giving explicit forecasts with detailed explanations.

The website has details covering the whole decade from 1998-2007, and does include some calls which turned out wrong -- for example in 2003.

And sometimes even a major confluence of anticipated *potential* support/resistance can be entirely bypassed. This is the case with the example you reference from DEC03. That chart was part of a discussion on the CB forum where I was pointing out a particular symmetry for DOW that would occur at 6116, if reached. [In other instances, the market does deliver a huge move to precisely tag an important juncture, such as with Copper from DEC06 to the FEB07 trough and thereafter. More on this another time.]

At the time of that particular DOW chart in early DEC03, I was favouring a bearish outcome, but what you don't see from that isolated chart is that just a couple weeks later I shifted to a near-term bullish resolution based on certain upside triggerpoints being invoked. Indeed, a public website article on 18DEC highlighted for SPX that "exceeding 1092 now would signal further strength to 1161 on 18JAN". The weekly report on 22DEC also highlighted this upside scenario. The market did reach the specified high on schedule, and then consolidated over the next few months.

During JUL of 2004 I discovered and published the phenomenal relationship expected at 1061 on 13AUG, and on the strength of that powerful anticipated low -- which I declared in true real-time online as the market printed the low at 1060.70 on 13AUG -- I outlined the bullish intermediate case, which turned out quite right. Since then I have also expanded on the longer-term rationale for multiple reasons targeting 3600 in 2012 (which has always been my calculated major price/time objective since 1998).

I hope the foregoing has addressed the concerns of some members here regarding trading as well as forecasting experience, the superb 2007 call, and the context of the 2003 chart.

Please excuse me in advance if I am unable to engage near-term in further discussion here -- I have nearly two dozen presentations in Asia and Europe over the next 6 weeks -- but will try to visit this forum again thereafter.

Regards

David Bensimon

Please note that in accordance with licensing restrictions the foregoing is provided for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

Lukester

09-23-08, 04:38 PM

Thanks for that ddn3f - I was working until 2.30 AM last night and got off to a very late start today, so could not reply to Chris's question. However I did not have your linked source either and am looking it over with interest. It seems evident to some of us at any rate, that Bensimon is an analyst in a very small, select group of the very best ones to follow. I have been fascinated by this guy's work since I first came across it.

This was a posting from David Bensimon on another site. David Bensimon talks about
his forecasts, as well as the predictions he made wrong.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t83330.html

Chris

09-24-08, 01:27 AM

Thanks for posting that ddn3f. Just what I was looking for!

Just looking through his publications page...this guy's services don't come cheap. They must be worth it! ;)

friendly_jacek

10-16-08, 10:26 PM

To revisit this thread, the champ stamped and failed to predict the big october crash. The more I think about it, there is no way to predict market, too many variables and it's like predicting a weather. Most good traders admit that their batting rate is close to 50% but they make money on risk management.
Of course there is room for technical analysis (rhythms and Fibonacci levels), sentiment analysis, value investing, macroeconomics, or some simple common sense, but the truth is brutal as the widespread capital destruction can attest.

As for Bensimon, he likes to talks about his good predictions and omits his bad ones.

steveaustin2006

10-21-08, 01:19 PM

Haven't read this whole thread, but I did start looking into and listening to Bensimon thoughts over the past month and I have to concur - he usually frustrates interviewers by rambling on about his previous calls that worked out and seems to omit bad calls. I listened to an interview with him on Sept. 17th that was posted on kitco regarding his thoughts going forward - has not quite worked out as he thought though that is debatable given some of the caveats he mentioned on 'inflection' points.

Regardless, last I heard he was raising $1 billion to take advantage of the bottoming he sees in the first quarter (by April) in commodities - so he does seem to be putting money where his mouth his, though much easier if it's other peoples money ;-) That does seem to jive with EJ/Fred 's predictions of 2-6 months disinflation before kicking re-reflation kicking in.

I have to laugh at the subscription rates on his stuff - if you just want to know what he is thinking you can stay on top of his general broad market predictions monthly by using google alerts and watching his interviews on bloomberg or radio interviews. Course if you are a precision short term trader then maybe it's worth your while.

Lukester

11-12-08, 11:06 PM

New market update frm David Bensimon - looking out into 2009 -2010.

I was unable to embed the video.

http://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon

<TABLE id=logos><TBODY><TR><TD>http://www.smartstox.com/app/ui/h/hi.jpg</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px">David Bensimon</TD><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 7px" align=right>http://www.smartstox.com/app/ui/close.gif (http://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon#)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=xpmenu><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>Visit David Bensimon's Website (http://www.polarpacific.com/)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT>http://www.smartstox.com/app/ui/a/a_david_bensimon.jpg

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David Bensimon Playlist

<TABLE id=playlist cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR id=row1 onmouseover="bgcolor(this.id,'#d6dff7');" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="picshow('a_david_bensimon',1); wmplayercreate('wmp','David Bensimon','a_david_bensimon','audio',1);" onmouseout="bgcolor(this.id,'#FFFFFF');"><TD>Audio InterviewNov-11-2008 (http://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon#)</TD></TR><TR id=row2 onmouseover="bgcolor(this.id,'#d6dff7');" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="picshow('a_david_bensimon',2); wmplayercreate('wmp','David Bensimon','a_david_bensimon','audio',2);" onmouseout="bgcolor(this.id,'#FFFFFF');"><TD>Audio InterviewSep-12-2008 (http://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon#)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>http://www.smartstox.com/analyst/david_bensimon/

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friendly_jacek

11-13-08, 09:46 PM

New market update frm David Bensimon - looking out into 2009 -2010.

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I don't know if I can trust him. His track record was good... until October 2008.
He admits that he does TA. I'm afraid that all the rules brake now, like they broke in 1929-34.

metalman

11-13-08, 09:49 PM

I don't know if I can trust him. His track record was good... until October 2008.
He admits that he does TA. I'm afraid that all the rules brake now, like they broke in 1929-34.

calling for a rally this fall was a really big boo boo.

ER59

11-22-08, 06:51 PM

Lukester,
Here is a quote from your post on Re: That '70s connection Thread
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4399

Here is a rough transcript of a "pertinent segment" of another broadcast:

Bensimon near term and 5 year outlook. (take heed: Silver is termed as "probable" to reach $40.00 within 2009).

In mid APRIL, Bensimon noted the following comments: "If we are at 1385 on the SP 500, that is the point when the market has to make it's final choice, as to whether we go down one more level, or whether we've seen the bottom". My slight bias is, that after two more weeks of sideways action, on the 2nd of May or at 1385m the market will reject upside potential and invoke a very sharp slide lasting 62 more days, from the 2nd of May, to the 1st of July, where there is a very strong confluence of elements which provides a final bottom. At that point (1st wk July) there is the strongest probability for a major low for stocks, a high for bonds, a high for commodities and a low for currencies.

We need to recognise how far the market has risen in the past 5 years, therefore the fall we've seen with significant bottoms in January and March are justified. [ however, he wrote, back in mid April, the anticipated low in the first week of May could fail ]. Failing that 1385 level at this juncture [ start of May ] there is a risk of a 400 point drop to 1185 arriving at the first week of July. The good news is that this will be the end of the road on the downside, and we can very confidently buy at that 1185 level [ looking forward to ] the beginning of a new advance. And that advance will not be just for the SP500, although the SP500 will essentially triple in value from 1200 to 3500 over the next five years. The DOW JONES will similarly rise from it's area around 11,000 up to 40,000 (implies over the next five years).

After this July 1st date we are looking at a very substantial recovery in the markets. We are looking at a 40% - 50% gain thereafter over the next 12 to 18 months following the important low at the start of July. That sounds like a lot, but actually it is par for the course, for recoveries off major lows going back the last 40 - 50 years.ffice:office" /><O:p></O:p>

Has he ever corrected his forecast before this crisis?<O:p></O:p>

BiscayneSunrise

11-23-08, 05:19 AM

calling for a rally this fall was a really big boo boo.

There was a rally in late October. Problem was it was over before anyone realized it (about 5 days) Like many of the bear market rallies of the past year, they were so short they fooled a lot of people into re-entering the market just as the rally was ending. Then it was right back down again.

The job of a bear market is to fool people into staying in the market.

ER59

11-23-08, 11:17 AM

Actually, I meant this Bensimon's statement <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
'After this July 1st date we are looking at a very substantial recovery in the markets. We are looking at a 40% - 50% gain thereafter over the next 12 to 18 months following the important low at the start of July'<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Has he ever admitted to this mistake?<o:p></o:p>
After listening to his interviews I've noticed that he always reiterate all his successful calls, but never mentions any that failed.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>

metalman

11-23-08, 11:20 AM

Actually, I meant this Bensimon's statement ffice:office" /><o>:p></o>:p>
'After this July 1st date we are looking at a very substantial recovery in the markets. We are looking at a 40% - 50% gain thereafter over the next 12 to 18 months following the important low at the start of July'<o>:p></o>:p>
<o>:p></o>:p>
Has he ever admitted to this mistake?<o>:p></o>:p>
After listening to his interviews I've noticed that he always reiterate all his successful calls, but never mentions any that failed.<o>:p></o>:p>
<o>:p></o>:p>
<o>:p></o>:p>

the guy has been wrong more than 50% of the time. how do you make $$$ on that?

bart

11-23-08, 11:41 AM

the guy has been wrong more than 50% of the time. how do you make $$$ on that?

My observation of his track record is that he been right more than 50% of the time... and that no one in the shorter (or long term for that matter) term trading game is right anywhere near 100% of the time.

I do pay attention to Bensimon's calls though, just like I do with calls by EJ, Schultz, Faber, Ritholtz, JesseL and many others (including that weird Finster fellow :eek: ;)) - and then make my own calls based on theirs and my own public & private work.

Some people swear by TA, others swear at it... and it works for me and others too. We pays our money and we takes our chances...

metalman

11-23-08, 11:53 AM

My observation of his track record is that he been right more than 50% of the time... and that no one in the shorter (or long term for that matter) term trading game is right anywhere near 100% of the time.

I do pay attention to Bensimon's calls though, just like I do with calls by EJ, Schultz, Faber, Ritholtz, JesseL and many others (including that weird Finster fellow :eek: ;)) - and then make my own calls based on theirs and my own public & private work.

Some people swear by TA, others swear at it... and it works for me and others too. We pays our money and we takes our chances...

i prefer to make my money sitting on my ass vs trading all the time. matter of taste, i suppose.

bart

11-23-08, 12:10 PM

i prefer to make my money sitting on my ass vs trading all the time. matter of taste, i suppose.

More power to you... and as Finster will assure you, I have no taste... ;)

polarpacific

11-26-08, 02:08 AM

Greetings

This is David Bensimon

My thanks to the posters in this thread and others in this forum -- especially Lukester, Bart, ddn3f -- for their kind references to my work.

If I may address the concerns expressed by several others, in particular c1ue, jacek, metalman:

First, please see my post of 18FEB08 from another forum which was reprinted in this thread by ddn3f on 23SEP08. That letter addressed three topics:
(i) My background in trading/investing as well as analysing/forecasting, including examples of precise calls at major turns over the past decade.

(ii) The explicit and public forecasts in 2007 which some in that other forum had doubted could be real because of the accuracy in both price and time.

(iii) The nature of my multi-dimensional forecasts, and the context for the specific DOW chart of 2003 (referenced again in another thread recently on this forum).

Second, 2008 has been a thrilling year with big moves in major markets that have in fact adhered well to my published forecasts -- including for clients in the monthly PolarView series as well as for a broader audience in presentations at industry conferences and media interviews in the financial press. Here is the story for several key markets:

OIL

The Polar Perspectives book (published in 2006 and which has since been honoured with two gold medals at international competitions) projected a then-imminent drop from around 80 to just above 50, with the bold expectation for this slide to be followed by a nearly tripling in value to reach 128 and then plunge dramatically.

A year later, the NOV07 PolarView report retained the original 128 price objective and extended the projected timing for this high to MAY08. This juncture was achieved exactly. Reaching the key price objective at the specified time, and doing so after a substantial 18-month uptrend, signalled a sensible place to cover profitable long positions and to re-assess for the next step. Over the next couple months the market pushed modestly higher, climbing along the original overhead channel.

In a Bloomberg television interview on 01JUL, in the JUL edition of PolarView, and in a presentation at a commodity conference in Singapore as well as other interviews all around the same time -- when the general market was rampantly bullish about Oil -- I specified a powerful confluence of both fundamental and technical elements for an imminent peak at 147 and plunge to 97 as the initial stage of an 11-18 month high-level consolidation.

The market delivered with the actual high a few days later right at 147, and also with the sharp collapse which quickly achieved the first cited downside target.

GOLD

The book outlined the case for a 13-year climb from 260 to 2600 between 2001-2014 based on a confluence of powerful fundamentals and technical elements (Price, Time, Geometry, Structure). The original forecast in APR01 (in my previous weekly series) took place in the very week of that actual trough.

Five years later, on the very day of the high in MAY06 (and despite rampant bullishness then prevailing) I outlined in an interview for an Australian trading magazine a similar combination of elements signalling an immediate plunge of 25% from 732 to 546 -- which the market delivered perfectly over the next 3 weeks.

Thereafter, I outlined in reports, presentations, and interviews that IF the market did not get past 730 on the second try, it would lead to a retest of 550 (which I would have welcomed as an excellent buying opportunity) ... but explicitly cautioned that an upside break of 730 in 2007 would trigger a surge straight to 1030. Indeed, by Q4 the market was breaking past 730 and the NOV07 and MAR08 reports repeated the key upside price target at 1030. The market indeed delivered very well with the actual high a few weeks later at 1034.

In the JUL08 PolarView I stated that failure to get past a secondary high at 975 would signal a 25% slide to 735, ideally finishing at an important timing window in APR09. The market fell directly to 736 even faster, reaching that anticipated support on 11SEP. Once again, by sheer coincidence, on that very day while in London I was interviewed for an internet radio program in Canada (also posted a week later on a well-known gold website) and stated clearly that reaching the key support at 735 was an immediate signal to cover shorts and go long (for a trading, not investing horizon). Over just the next 5 sessions the market surged a record $200, or more than 25% from 735 to 935.

SPX

As mentioned in the 18FEB08 post reprinted in this thread, my OCT07 report forecast a peak at 1578 and 20% drop to 1268. The market delivered exactly with the high at 1576 on 11OCT and low at 1270 on 21JAN.

The FEB08 report and radio/tv interviews then called for a bounce and retest of the lows with timing specified for the third week of MAR. The market again delivered with a double bottom exactly on schedule on 17MAR.

The APR08 report called for the bounce to reach a high as far as 1420 in early MAY and then reverse for a 60-day decline to new lows targeting 1185 (a magnitude of -235 points). The market peaked at 1440 on 19MAY and then fell for 57 days to the new low which printed at 1200 on 15JUL (delivering an actual magnitude of -240 points). [Note this example of the market delivering the exact magnitude and duration expected, though somewhat shifted in absolute levels and dates.]

Although each of those swings delivered excellent results relative to the anticipated movements, the forecast which I personally consider the most remarkably accurate this year was in the JUL report -- where I called for a recovery to reach a high at 1310 on 11AUG, followed by a drop back to reach 1170 at the end of SEP during the week ending Friday 03OCT. The market delivered really quite amazing precision at both ends -- with the actual high at 1313 on exactly 11AUG, and then a monthly closing low at 1166 on Tuesday 30SEP.

The point of the foregoing is not to claim that I am right about all dimensions of every twist and turn for every market on which I have ever commented. Indeed, the polarpacific website and the 18FEB08 internet post readily note examples of calls that did not materialise in either the direction, magnitude, level, duration, or timing anticipated.

Incidentally, I am not aware of too many other analysts whose forecasts regularly involve such precise multi-dimensional elements (as opposed to direction-only without any price or time specifications).

The purpose here with the multi-month sequence of movements for each of these three major markets is to illustrate that there is clearly something non-random in the pattern of observable market behaviour -- ie. that the price path through time involves rhythms of symmetry and proportionality; and although these relationships are probabilistic, not deterministic, they do clearly offer windows of opportunity as demonstrated by these very specific forecasts unfolding as projected.

Third, there seems to be some mis-interpretation of the nature of the latter forecast (presumably as expressed in the 16AUG Canadian radio interview) in relation to 03OCT.

The problem seems to involve undue emphasis by some individuals on the bullish potential *after* 03OCT, when in fact the most relevant contemporaneous value of the original forecast in the JUL report and the public comment enroute in the AUG interview relates to the projected bullish and bearish swings *prior* to 03OCT.

In this regard it is important to note again that the market's movements throughout JUL-AUG-SEP were exactly as predicted several months in advance -- with the rally up to the 1313 high on 11AUG and the decline down to 1166 monthly close on 30SEP.

While clients could have profited from both the JUL-AUG rally and the AUG-SEP decline, the radio listeners could have still benefited from the AUG-SEP slide by either covering longs or going short down to the specified juncture.

Generally, in addition to recognising that one must consider both absolute prices and dates as well as relative magnitudes and durations (see example above for MAY-JUL), the key to understanding and using the symmetries identified is not to jump ahead to some potential future scenario, but to enjoy each current step-by-step movement (in either direction) as the market works toward fulfilling the specified price and time objectives ... and to then sensibly re-assess when each new juncture is reached.

In this case, after delivering the projected up and down movements with exactly the right magnitudes and timings for JUL-AUG-SEP, it was natural and indeed a necessary part of the normal process, to freshly assess the relative merits for the next phase to be either an upward reversal or continued weakness after the week ending 03OCT.

Incidentally, one relative price element for 1170 was that it was the 50% arithmetic average of the preceding 5-year gain from 768 to 1576. The monthly close at 1166 on 30SEP achieved this. It was therefore also interesting to note that the weekly close at 1100 on 03OCT was the exact geometric average of that same preceding advance (ie. same percentage increase from 768 to 1100 as from 1100 to 1576).

A related point about ongoing/dynamic evaluation of earlier forecasts is that an adhoc public interview is not as informative as a detailed written client report or telephone consultation.

As it turned out, PolarView subscribers in OCT indeed received the updated view on the weekend between 03-06OCT that the market would not turn up from the previously highlighted inflection point of the week ending 03OCT, but rather would plunge to the next specified price targets. [Inflection points can mark a high, a low, or an acceleration point.]

In a special update to PolarView clients in mid-OCT I detailed the nature of the global forced selling from 1060 to the well-proportioned low at 840 and instant complete rebound back to the futures high at 1066 ... and called for another large slide targeting 832 cash as a retest of the low. The market in fact fell (slower than preferred) by 23% to 828 for the futures on 27OCT before surging back +22% over the next week.

That same report concluded with a specific caution that in the context of heightened volatility and unprecedented global selling, a downside break could stretch to the next notable level of support at 730 -- which was indeed very nearly touched with the actual trough at 741 on 21NOV.

Stepping back for a moment, my view throughout 2007 was that anticipated completion of the 5-year advance from 2002 would lead to a correction relative to that whole upmove, with the basic supports at the 3/8, 1/2, and 5/8 retracement levels. Reaching the first price level correctly but too early in JAN led to the expectation for a retest in MAR. Successfully halting at this double bottom did not itself guarantee that the overall correction was over -- this could only be confirmed by surpassing certain resistance levels, in this case the upward 5/8 retracement at 1420-1440. The anticipated failure there did materialise and deliver the next leg down to new lows ... which in turn produced the anticipated bounce which halted exactly as expected at the 1310 level on 11AUG. Reversal at that juncture thus signalled the next step down to 1170 at the end of SEP which was correctly achieved. Regardless of what *could* have then been a recovery after 03OCT, contemporaneous assessment at that juncture correctly called for a plunge instead ... and so forth with further price/time junctures during OCT/NOV.

Back at the high in OCT07 -- did I anticipate that the projected corrective decline would stretch to 100% of the preceding 5-year advance? No ... but did this matter? No ... because even better was to successfully predict the dimensions of each intermediate step in both directions along the way, as described above.

I hope that this post will have clarified how my work on price/time symmetry should be applied -- in particular, that specified junctures are simply windows of opportunity that the market subject to external energies can elect or reject when reached. Moreover, prudent risk management and money management when trading/investing requires taking appropriate action when the market signals a change in scenario by invoking an identified triggerpoint.

Finally, over the past decade I have participated extensively on some online forums (eg. LongWaves and CrystallBall) and some others less frequently. All of these groups, including iTulip, deserve great credit for providing excellent discussions and insights from a variety of angles and diversity of members. Unfortunately there are sometimes instances where misunderstandings lead to flaming etc. My intent here is not to criticise critics but simply to clarify some information about my published forecasts which had been missing in this thread.

There is another recent post in this same thread which I am pleased to also address separately today, but otherwise I hope the members here will appreciate that my travel schedule and committments may not allow for frequent comments.

Thank you

David Bensimon
Managing Director
Polar Pacific Pty Ltd

Please note that in accordance with the Australian licensing regime all of the foregoing is provided here for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

polarpacific

11-26-08, 02:48 AM

Greetings

This is David Bensimon.

I am pleased to reply to ER59's post on 23NOV quoting my Canadian radio interview of 12APR.

That quote included the comment that "on 02MAY or SPX 1385 the market will reject upside potential and invoke a sharp slide lasting 62 days from 02MAY to 01JUL where there is a strong confluence of elements to provide a final bottom".

For reference, the APR edition of my written PolarView report included the 1385 primary objective and also highlighted 1420 as the upper boundary.

The market ultimately peaked at 1440 on 19MAY and fell for 57 days to the trough at 1200 on 15JUL. The actual decline was thus -240 points over 8 weeks (2 weeks shifted) versus -235 points over 8 weeks from the report and -200 points using the figures on air.

After achieving that 16% projected downswing, the forward-looking view in APR for the post-JUL trend was for resumption of the main advance tripling from 1200 to 3600 over 5 years.

ER59 asks whether I amended the post-JUL segment of the APR forecast before the crisis. The answer, as detailed in my other post, is Yes.

The remarkable JUL edition not only amended the contemporaneous near-term view to a rally that would halt at 1310 on 11AUG -- which turned out perfectly in both price and time -- but also correctly called for the subsequent slide to 1170 at the end of SEP (with the actual monthly close being 1166).

This situation is similar to the one raised in comments by others in this thread relating to the forward-looking view in JUL (report) and AUG (radio) for the post-SEP trend. A detailed in the other post, this too was updated to clients in real-time at the 03OCT juncture for a plunge rather than immediate recovery.

Thank you for your interest in my work. I hope this has clarified the record of my expressed views this year.

Regards

David Bensimon
Managing Director
Polar Pacific Pty Ltd

Please note that in accordance with the Australian licensing regime all of the foregoing is provided here for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

Lukester

11-28-08, 12:19 PM

David -

Many thanks for your clarification. An insight for our "summary debunkers" might be to grasp the difference between a market forecast which ackowledges always dealing in what is probable vs. pundits who like to claim absolutes. There are surely no absolutes, but it just as surely does not follow that nothing in the future is discernible. One might notice that a majority of your price forecasts wind up correct, some to within 2-3 points. At a certain point a person with a sense of the plausible would recognize your many specific calls and their ending up correct begins to suggest a "non-random methodology", as I think it was dryly phrased on one of your radio interviews.

Acknowledging this requires an approach free of preconceptions however, as your history of having repeatedly made highly specific price point calls reflexively causes disbelief in some quarters - hence the controversy as to whether you are up to anything "worthwhile". [ :rolleyes: ]

Some general observations:

To the genuinely curious and alert, a bold and accurate string of market calls by Bensimon is manifestly there to scrutinize. Not just in a month or a year, but for years ongoing. This builds up a body of work which sincerely inquiring market observers do take note of. One might also note that very few if any others are regularly "sticking their neck out" with pin-point price calls as Bensimon does. This is a practice which (if one stops to reflect), is constantly inviting the general public to scrutinize his record. Most analysts would consider that to be the equivalent to camping out at the target end of the artillery range (professionally hazardous).

EJ puts a high value on being unequivocal. Bensimon's approach is very different to what iTulip does, but he also likes to be unequivocal. Bensimon employs the (highly empirical) practice of charting what has already occurred in history. He charts price trajectories spanning not just a couple of centuries, but reaching back into a half millennium to map and analyse recurring price waves - he digs into how this empirical data actually shows clear and inescapable symmetries.

For example, Phi turn dates appearing with clockwork predictability in perfect matchup to many dozens of major market turns, spanning decades, in multiple market segments, which are market moves breaking into major peaks and troughs so precisely as to be within days or weeks of their correspondent cycle peaks 60 or 120 years previously. When you see such "apparent coincidences" recur with clock like regularity across five hundred years of market history, if you are a disciplined and inquiring market historian, you do not overlook the implications.

I would venture to guess, that anyone wishing to refute Bensimon's method would be heartily welcomed to do so, providing they took the trouble to at least research their objections to provide something substantive in the way of argument, as his method relies very heavily on assembled historical data. Bensimon's technical or charting based approach is one for which EJ has expressed little interest or recognition, although I'd bet that EJ would be the very first to acknowledge that there are certainly different ways to arrive at insights about market trends.

I had expressed interest in Bensimon being interviewed here because he has some very precise calls on the future of the S&P, the DOW, the commodities markets, and the GOLD price. But I realise this might be a non-starter, or at best an awkward one, as iTulip don't really do the charting approach nor recognize much substantive method in this area. I can imagine if Bensimon did an interview here half of it would be spent merely establishing the credentials and reputability which a chartist / market historian's craft represents - His market research and painstakingly assembled charting spanning centuries ( somewhat like the work Bart does at nowandfutures.com ) is highly likely among the very best of this school.

Consequently in my view, Bensimon does not need to stoop to the spade-work of "converting" a skeptical readership here. To compare idly proferred skeptical comments to the volume of charting work ( multi-centuries ), which Bensimon has researched to develop his method frankly appears a little unseemly in that skepticism is effortless while the method he develops displays a mountain of market research. It's worth noting also that skeptics actually thirst mightily for predictive market information yet are among the first to turn away from those rare instances of robust predictive models when they actually appear. The fascinating thing here however is to recognize the points of convergence between Bensimon's work and EJ's.

For what it's worth from a layman who has been looking around for guidance, Bensimon's call for a tripling of the S&P over the next five to seven years or so is a prediction I have read by only one other analyst. His biggest macro call for the past year has been precisely "DOW 29,000" within approx. the next five to seven years. This is a lonely contrarian call at this bear market juncture yet this analyst, who called the tops in commodities this past spring, and called the emergence of a quite long dollar rally then as well, is right squarely on the same page as Bensimon in this area. No-one else is making this call that I've read anywhere. I therefore wish to express appreciation for the forecasting which Bensimon has developed. I think he's going to be on the money.

I count Bensimon's work among the most coherent and trusted. iTulip provides another. The fact that Bensimon's method is so different than iTulip's yet some of their projections overlap is very intruiging. These two reference points (iTulip and Bensimon) agreeing on one or two points in the future feels to me like I have found a bedrock piece of intelligence to steer by - like finally obtaining a triangulation on one's location, having finally found the north star and the sun's apogee for hard positioning. I regret that the caliber of Bensimon's work is not more appreciated here.

... The point of the foregoing is not to claim that I am right about all dimensions of every twist and turn for every market on which I have ever commented. ... Incidentally, I am not aware of too many other analysts whose forecasts regularly involve such precise multi-dimensional elements (as opposed to direction-only without any price or time specifications). ... The purpose here with the multi-month sequence of movements for each of these three major markets is to illustrate that there is clearly something non-random in the pattern of observable market behaviour -- ie. that the price path through time involves rhythms of symmetry and proportionality; and although these relationships are probabilistic, not deterministic, they do clearly offer windows of opportunity as demonstrated by these very specific forecasts unfolding as projected..

bart

11-28-08, 12:43 PM

... involved in the near term turns in the indices. This is an approach to which EJ is completely antithetical.

I think that's a bit excessive Lukester. EJ has made reference numerous times to the "trade within a trade". Its just not his or iTulip's preference.

The wonderful and fascinating thing is that both your own technically derived, and EJ's economic macro analysis derived scrutiny has some fascinating points of convergence.

Now you're talking about where I live. When folk I respect and that have good track records converge and my own work generally agrees, its definitely time to dive in.